I felt this week would certainly be better than last and I was on point, boasting a 5-2 record. However, if you can feel disappointed about “only” going 5-2, this was the week. The two losses, which will be discussed below, both should have covered and brought me to a 7-0 weekend. But, alas, that is the nature of my profession. Now to the picks…
Cincinnati +3.5 over Oregon St- Winner
I continue to dominate on Thursday’s, as this dog won outright by a bunch, extending my Thursday night record to 3-0 on the season. Weekday games on ESPN need to be approached differently than normal games. Most “average” teams play their hearts out on national TV, especially teams in an underdog roll. Cincinnati did twice last year at home, upsetting Rutgers and South Florida, both as dogs. The public was all over Oregon St, yet the line dropped from 3.5 to 3 at kickoff. Normally a sign, you are on the smart side.
Virginia -16 over Duke- Loser
One of two losses on the day, and was this one tough to watch. Virginia miscued on 3 punts and fumbled a kickoff which led to all of Duke’s points. I thought, because Virginia struggled so much the previous week at Wyoming (108 total yards), this line was a little deflated considering Duke is still Duke (0-22 L22 games). The line jumped up and closed around 18.5, meaning everyone was on the Cavs this week.
Air Force/Utah Under/47.5- Winner
This game was very simple. Utah was without their starting QB and RB, while Air Force is still learning a new spread-em-out offense. The Utes did nothing last week against Oregon St with the backups in and I expected another low scoring affair in this one. The line dropped a point and closed at 46.5. This was an easy winner that flew under the radar.
UCLA -7 over BYU- Winner
A huge public play. This line closed at 8, with the majority of the public (over 60% still on UCLA). After the Bruins jumped out to an early 20-0 lead, it looked like Joe Public would notch another victory. But Max Hall led the Cougars to two, quick scores and suddenly the UCLA lead was only 3. Thanks to a late TD, the Bruins ended up winning by 10, but it goes to show; if the majority of the public is on one side and the line is barely moving, there’s a reason for that. Don’t think Vegas just missed one; they know what they are doing.
Washington St -13.5 over San Diego St- Winner
I went against the smart money here as this line opened at 16 and quickly dropped to 13.5, before finally closing at 14. I was impressed with how Wash St played with Wisconsin for nearly the entire game in Week One. QB Alex Brink is a senior and a leader. SDSU was playing their first game of the year and figured to be a bit rusty. With 4 new players in the secondary, I knew Brink would have a field day and he did throwing for 469 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Oklahoma St -22.5 over Florida Atlantic- Winner
Got burned with Okie St the week before, but decided to give them another chance. Because they were picked apart on national TV, the Cowboys would want to pounce on whoever they played next, especially at home where they averaged over 35 ppg last season. This game was never in doubt as the Cowboys pulled away in the second half to win by 30+. The line opened and closed right around the 22/23 area, however, this was another big public play.
New Mexico St +7 over New Mexico- Loser
There are professionals out there, myself included, that not only loaded up on NMSU +7, but also the ML at +250. The Aggies, with their dynamic passing game, was supposed to make huge improvements from a year ago, and possibly receive a bowl berth. But two INT’s in the 4th quarter squandered any hopes of a ML win. However, with 7 seconds left, the Aggies had two chances to score from the Lobo’s 2 yard line and give us the backdoor cover. Unfortunately, both passes fell incomplete and the Aggies lost by 10. Almost every capper I spoke with about this game had the Aggies winning this outright. Which just goes to show; we can do the research and pick the right side, and still come up short.
Don’t miss my CFB Selections for Week 3 (5-2 last week), On Sale Now!!
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