1) Pitchers: There are at least 9 guys in a game at a time for any given team (10 if you count the DH in the American League), but the 2 who effectively control the outcome of the game are the starting pitchers. No team proved this any better than the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, who with a good but not great supporting cast rode Cy Young pitchers Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson to a World Series Championship over the Yankees.

A) Last 3 Starts: A pitcher’s past results are the most important factor in determining whether or not to gamble on him and his team on any given day. Almost every daily newspaper in the country lists the pitching match-ups for every day’s games, providing the pitchers’ pertinent statistics. Perhaps no stat is more key than the numbers encapsulating each pitcher’s last 3 starts. For example, Mike Mussina began the 2003  season for the Yankees 7-0 with an ERA under 2.00. But in the next 3 games he went 0-3 with an ERA over 5.00. Now, if you checked only his overall record, you may have been tempted to bet on him, based on his 7-3 record and 2.54 ERA. But by doing your homework, you knew he wasn’t in top form in recent outings.

B) Record Against Opponent: For whatever reason, some pitchers perform remarkably well against some teams and dismally against others. Many times there is no rational explanation, but check this key stat when considering games. Most papers list a pitcher’s history the previous year against the team, which is most relevant, but sometimes a pitcher either has another club’s number over the long haul or they have his, and it’s worth taking into account.

C) Bullpen Availability. Most bettors don’t evaluate this when making their daily picks, but it’s something I always consider. Here’s an example. The Astros had a great combo in 2003 of Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner to close out their games. When they were well-rested, I always considered Houston a strong play. But if they’d pitched in 2 consecutive games coming in, I stayed away, knowing that the Astros could give up some late runs if they weren’t available or well-rested.

D) ERA Rankings. As I fully explain in The Baseball Underdog System in Chapter 10, an easy way to weed out dubious “dogs” is if they are playing against a pitcher ranked among the league’s Top 20 in adjusted ERA. Believe it or not, you can conversely find several games a week in which the underdog pitcher is actually ranked in the Top 20, or is higher ranked than the guy on the mound for the favorite, and these games are must-plays. 

2) Streaks: With such a long season, baseball is often a game of streaks. So be sure to look at the “L-10” stat in the standings that refers to a team’s last 10 games. You recall that a key criteria of The Baseball Underdog System is that a game is a no-play if an underdog has lost 3 or more in a row or a favorite has won 3 or more in a row. Additionally, look for favorites with a .600 or better record coming off a loss, since to earn that winning percentage then by definition they post very few consecutive losses. Betting on the top 5 or so teams in baseball after a loss is such a simple and strong play that I am considering honing it into a separate System for a future volume of this book. 

3) Weather: This factor separates the pros from the amateurs. If you don’t check the weather before placing your bets, you are overlooking a huge “element” to the game. Wind blowing toward the outfield can turn a fly-ball pitcher into a home-run pitcher, and may make a smart play both against him and “over” the total. Information on the weather at the site of every pro football and baseball game can be found on several betting Web sites, or you can at least check the weather for the home team’s city on the Internet. 

4) Intangibles: When seeking an edge on linesmakers and the betting public, look for any factor that can even subtly affect a game. 

A) Travel: Keep an eye out for teams that played a night game the day before and have to fly to their next game late in the evening or early morning. Early in the 2003 season, Baltimore played a night game in California and while Texas, the Orioles’ next opponent, was getting a good night’s sleep, Baltimore was on a plane, arriving at 5:30 a.m. Later that day, a well-rested Rangers team won easily over a tired Orioles club. 

B) Extended Travel: I always consider betting against a team that is coming off a long road trip and playing its first game back at home. In this situation, I feel it takes clubs a game or so to become acclimated once again to their home field after a tiring road swing. 

C) Emotion: Look for teams that are coming off tight series against heated rivals. A natural letdown occurs, especially when they are playing mediocre teams, and an upset might be in the making if you go with the “dog.” 

Until next time 

Tony Stoffo