Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more
informed NFL betting picks. The following are for Super Bowl
XLII: Not counting Sunday's game, which oddsmakers have at New
England (-11.5) over New York, there have been 13 Super Bowls
with double-digit point spreads. Some of those big lines, like in 1986 when the Chicago Bears
(-10) beat the Patriots 46-10, were more than justified. The
same was true for the biggest spread of them all, in 1995 when
the San Francisco 49ers (-18.5) hammered the San Diego Chargers
49-26. However, the two most recent big spreads were so wrong that
oddsmakers didn't even pick the right team to win. In 2002, the
Patriots (+14) beat the St. Louis Rams 20-17. In 1998, the
Denver Broncos (+11) beat the Green Bay Packers 31-24. Of course, the most famous upset came in Super Bowl III, when
Joe Namath and his 18-point underdog New York Jets took out
Johnny Unitas and the Baltimore Colts 16-7. What's more, the
next year saw another shocker when the Kansas City
Chiefs (+12) beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-17. In all, that's four big upsets out of a possible 13, a 30
percent win rate for the underdog. (By the way, the Giants are
paying +325 on the moneyline.) There's no doubt that Randy Moss is one of the most prolific
receivers in NFL history. However, whether it's because he gets
so much attention from the defense in big games or some other
reason, he hasn't exactly lit it up in the few postseason games
he's played. This year, Moss has just two catches for 32 yards in the
Patriots' two playoff games. Obviously, he didn't do anything in the postseason for the
Oakland Raiders. But he wasn't that involved as a member of the
Minnesota Vikings, either. In four playoff games with the purple
and gold, Moss had just 11 receptions total. Granted, four of
them were for touchdowns. Still, you have to wonder if he'll
once again play more of a decoy role against the New York
Giants. Oddsmakers have made a number of Super Bowl props for Moss.
His over/under for receiving yards is 93.5, though he's only
once gone over that number in six playoff tries. His total pass
receptions are at 5.5, though the most he's ever caught in a
playoff game is four. After the Patriots beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in the
divisional playoffs – a game which saw Moss catch just one pass
for 14 yards – he had this to say: "They did a great job of
controlling me, but they did a bad job of controlling the rest
of the team." Will it be a similar story on Sunday? By now, most are well-versed in the story of Lawrence Tynes,
the field-goal kicking Scot who went from goat to hero in the
NFC Championship. He's since parlayed that game-winning, 47-yard
kick against the Packers into national fame: an
appearance on the Late Show with David Letterman,
an award from Entertainment Tonight and a big, big
spotlight heading into Super Bowl XLII. But let's not pretend that either the Giants or Patriots are
heavily reliant upon their kicking games. Tom Coughlin was
within seconds of strangling Tynes at Lambeau Field and hasn't
been a big advocate of his body of work this season. Meanwhile, Pats kicker Stephen Gostkowski has been the
benefactor of the highest scoring offense in the league (he was
the third leading scorer in the NFL with 137 points) but only
attempted five field goals from 40-49 yards this year,
connecting on three. So why all the fuss about two run-of-the-mill special
teamers? Well, consider the kicking prowess in four of the last five
Super Bowls: Tynes will likely be under the most scrutiny, especially
against a Patriots defense that rarely allows touchdowns in the
red zone. The Chargers had to settle for four field goals in
four red area trips in the AFC Championship. If Tynes is forced
into a similar position on Sunday, he'll need to be perfect if
the Giants have any chance of keeping the game close. Yes, we know. The Patriots' linebackers are old. We know that Junior Seau is 38, Tedy Bruschi is 34 and Mike
Vrabel is 32. We know that the "young jack" of the unit is 30-year-old
Adalius Thomas. We know all of it. The question, though, still remains - does
it really matter? The job the unit has done in the playoffs has been nothing
short of brilliant. In their most impressive performance to
date, the LBs held Jacksonville - the second-best rushing team
during the regular season - to just 66 total yards in the AFC
divisional playoff. For Giants fans, that's a scary statistic on the eve of Super
Bowl XLII. If the Giants mirror anybody with their 1-2 punch of
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, it's the Jaguars. Jacobs
plays the Fred Taylor role, chewing up yards on first and second
down. Bradshaw is the Maurice Jones-Drew closer, coming in on
thirds while providing a scary receiving option out of the
backfield. The Pats linebackers aren't just about stopping the run,
however. They know that blitz packages and constant pressure
throws the run and the pass out of sync. And nobody knows that
better than Eli Manning. "You have to be able to answer their blitzes and play a
mistake-free game," Manning told
Newsday. "They're not overly complicated. [But] if you
do move the ball, they will come with the blitzes... They try to
get a sack, big plays. That's how they end drives."
When it comes to the Super Bowl, a big point spread doesn't
necessarily mean an automatic victory for the favorite.
-JB
Randy Moss isn't exactly known for his postseason heroics.
-JB
The kicking games might be more important than anyone
assumes.
-MH
Can the veteran New England linebackers deal with the Giants
run game?
-MH
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