The great thing about the Super Bowl is there’s so much more than the spread
and total on which to wager on the NFL betting board. Over on the Colts’ sideline, defensive end Dwight Freeney is also dealing
with an injury that could limit his effectiveness in the Super Bowl – or keep
him out of game entirely. Freeney is in a walking boot because of a torn
ligament in his right ankle, and is likely to be listed as questionable along
with Shockey.
Super Bowl XLIV between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints is no
exception, with myriad proposition bets available to bettors looking for
something a little different to whet their big game whistle.
Before we get into some of the more intriguing props, and just for the record,
the Colts are currently priced as 5.5-point favorites against the Saints, while
the 57-point total would be a record-high if it stays at its current number.
The prop that caught our eye right off the top is the 1.5-time number listed for
total rushing attempts by Peyton Manning on Sunday at Sun Life Stadium in Miami.
You might be inclined to take the under (-170), but there’s plenty of value in
the over (+130) when you consider the pressure New Orleans was able to put on
Brett Favre in its 31-28 overtime win over Minnesota (+4) in the NFC
Championship Game.
The Saints didn’t get a sack on Favre, but they registered six hits against him,
and the pain they inflicted was clearly visible. Favre had one rushing attempt
against New Orleans Saints, which faces a weaker offensive line than that of the
Vikings in the Super Bowl.
Don’t be surprised if Manning gets chased out of the pocket on more than one
occasion and is forced to run; and that doesn’t account for any quarterback
sneak attempts that could happen in short yardage situations.
Looking at the other man under center, the over/under for total Drew Brees’ pass
attempts is listed at 36.5, with the value on the under (-110). The Saints are
known for having a pass-happy offense, but their running game is underrated.
Brees had 31 pass attempts against Minnesota, and had 32 against Arizona in the
NFC Divisional Round.
New Orleans scored an average of 38 points in the two games, so it doesn’t need
Brees putting up in the range of 40 pass attempts to post a big number on the
scoreboard. Even if you’re handicapping the Colts to run all over the Saints
(and thus forcing New Orleans into a pass-heavy attack), expect Indy to grind
out possessions to keep Brees off the field.
Another New Orleans player that presents a sharp play on the under is tight end
Jeremy Shockey, who is priced at +140 to get more than 3.5 receptions against
Indianapolis.
There’s been much made in the mainstream media about how “pumped up” Shockey is
to play in the Super Bowl after sitting out with injury in the Giants’ upset of
the Patriots two years ago, but there’s a good chance he won’t suit up once
again.
Shockey has been dealing with a nagging knee injury throughout the playoffs,
during which he’s averaged two catches per game. Expected to be listed as
questionable to see the field when the official injury report is released later
this week, Shockey would have to increase his production two-fold to cash for
over bettors on the prop.
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There’s a reason the under on the 3.5-reception number is set at -170: Because
there’s little value in betting a highly probable outcome at the pro football
betting window. Shockey hauled in one ball for nine yards against the Vikes, so
it’s a risk to take him to catch at least four passes in the big game. That’s if
he actually plays, of course.
Oddsmakers have Freeney’s total tackles set at 2.5, with the payout on the over
priced at +120. The under is a less-lucrative -150, but it’s hard to cap Freeney
to have a good game if he can’t even walk. Our estimation is Freeney will start
the game, and will be used as a decoy on passing downs against the Saints.
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| Mike Devine | |
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