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Steve Merril's MLB Report (Friday, Sept. 16)

Steve Merril
Steve Merril

Numerous documented national No. 1 finishes in NFL, NCB football, MLB baseball, NBA, and NCB basketball; Won the inaugural $100,000 Insider's Handicapping Invitational.

By: Steve Merril
Date: Sep 16, 2011
   
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Below is a free MLB play, with analysis, for Friday night: Brewers/Reds OVER 9 +100 (Wolf/Arroyo) – 7:10 pm ET #907 Not an official play, but I would rate the Over as a light lean tonight. The Reds hope to add to the Brewers’ woes beginning Friday when Milwaukee comes to town. The Brew Crew have lost six of their last eight and have seen their lead in the NL Central dwindle a bit. Randy Wolf gets the start bringing a 12-9 record along with a 3.44 ERA into the contest. He has allowed nine runs and 20 hits over his last 20 innings going 1-1 over that span. Wolf got lit up last time they played in Cincy back in April allowing six runs and 10 hits in four innings of work. Jay Bruce (9-20), Ryan Hanigan (4-12), Paul Janish (5-13), Brandon Phillips (6-22) and Joey Votto (8-25) all hit the southpaw well. Cincy has gone Over in 21 of their 35 games against left-handed starters, hitting .273 against them while putting up over five runs per game. The Reds have gone Over in four of their last six games and have put up at least seven runs in four of their last six. Milwaukee's bullpen is 8-12 with a 4.04 ERA and nine blown saves in 24 chances away from home. Bronson Arroyo is 8-11 with a 5.28 ERA in 29 starts. He has been dreadful as of late giving up 14 runs and 25 hits over his last 14.3 innings of work. Arroyo lost his last home start to the Phillies giving up six runs in just over five innings. The Reds’ starter last saw the Brewers in April twice picking up wins in both games. He’s been in poor form the past few months as he has dealt with various ailments. Milwaukee is struggling as of late offensively, but still has shown that they can score runs hitting .260 as a unit for the year. They have beaten up on the NL Central hitting .274 while scoring almost five runs per game. Cincinnati's bullpen has lost 27 games and blown 21 saves this season. These two have played eight Overs in 12 meetings.
 


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