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Steve Merril's MLB Report (Friday, July 11)

Steve Merril

Numerous documented national No. 1 finishes in NFL, NCB football, MLB baseball, NBA, and NCB basketball; Won the inaugural $100,000 Insider's Handicapping Invitational.

By: Steve Merril
Date: Jul 11, 2008

Below is a free underdog play for Friday night. You can also get awesome MLB Steamroller Blowout on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page as his RED~HOT 20-6 MLB run continues!

ATLANTA +135 (Reyes/Peavy) – 10:05 pm ET #913

The Braves remain an underrated team as they head into the second half of the season as they have been extremely unfortunate in one-run games this season. Atlanta has a league-worst 5-22 record in games decided by exactly one run this season, as opposed to 38-27 in all other games. This 5-22 record in close games is largely random, especially considering that the Braves have a solid bullpen this season with a 3.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Atlanta provides value tonight at a nice underdog price as they are the better overall team, plus my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid bounce-back effort from Atlanta’s Jo-Jo Reyes who is coming off poor starts in two of his past three outings. Both of those poor starts came at home, but Reyes has been extremely strong on the road this season with a 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

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