That watering hole the caravan driver sees on the horizon turns out to be blazing hot sand. The beautiful girl across the room turns out to be far less so as you get closer. Our eyes can play tricks with our mind as there are mirages all over. The Detroit Lions nearly won their first game, in a crushing 12-10 loss at Minnesota.
Ah-ha! A new-look Detroit defense that was “mad as hell and not going to take it anymore?” Let’s see, the Vikings still had 392 yards! That was more of an indictment of how deficient the Vikings red-zone offense is. The Lions have been outscored 40-0 in the opening quarter this season. Remember this Detroit defense was shredded for 474 yards against Atlanta, including 318 rushing to a team with a rookie QB playing in his first NFL game! Then they allowed 447 yards and 48 points to the Packers, and a 34-7 no-show home loss to the Bears. The bottom line: Don’t pay too much attention to the final score of the Lions/Vikings game, but the overall stats.
In the world of sports handicapping, teams and statistics can sometimes be an illusion. Take the Denver Broncos offense in 2007. The Broncos impressed after two weeks of the 2007 NFL season with the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Impressed, anyway, on the stat sheet. On the field they weren’t as hot, struggling to score 15 points on a bad/banged up Buffalo defense and needing OT to score 23 on Oakland. All that was rendered meaningless in Week 3, as a strong Jacksonville defense dominated them in a 23-14 win as a +3 road dog.
At that same time the Denver defense was ranked No. 3 in the NFL, allowing 256 yards per game, but it was deceiving. They played two teams with no offense, then played a weak Jacksonville offense. What is more revealing is that they hadn’t stopped the run, which ended up a major weakness last year and continues to be in 2008. Last season Oakland had 200 yards rushing on them and Jacksonville gouged them. They surrendered 186 yards against the Jaguars in a 23-14 loss and this season against the Jaguars they lost at home failing to contain the run.
In fact, a year ago at this time the Rams were ranked seventh in total defense. I noted in a column, “Forget about it, this is a poor defense team. Run defense is a better stat to look at, and the Rams are 28th allowing 158 yards per game on the ground. If teams can’t stop the run, their pass defense stats are going to be skewed as no one needs to pass, and that’s what’s happening with the Rams.” Run defense continues to be a huge problem for St. Louis.
It's important that handicappers analyze games with the ability to look for mirages and illusions. It's not enough to simply say, “This is the No. 5 overall defense in the NFL, therefore they are very strong defensively.” There are always more pieces of the puzzle to fit together concrete conclusions, especially when it means putting your hard earned money down on what you perceive to be a soft number.
I recall two years ago at this time when the Ravens were averaging 23.3 points per game, good for 8th in the NFL. Very impressive. But a closer look showed that the Ravens offense ranked 22nd overall, or tenth worst! Suddenly that offense didn't look so deadly anymore, which was evident in a playoff upset at home to the Colts.
What happened was that that high scoring average masked the real offensive production, which was sub-par. For instance, the Ravens were averaging just 109 yards rushing and 182 yards passing. That passing offense was 8th worst in the NFL. The defense was scoring and forcing turnovers, setting up great field position for the offense.
Here’s how handicappers can use information like this. There was a game where Southern Miss was playing at Central Florida. I noticed that the previous meeting the two combined for 83 points as the Golden Eagles dominated in a 52-31 victory. But the offenses didn't perform as well as the score would indicate. Southern Miss tallied 351 total yards and just 73 on the ground. The Knights managed just 356 total yards, 96 of those on the ground. Both teams prefer to move the ball on the ground based on the past history of their coaches, so I was anticipating far more rushing attempts and success in the next meeting.
The Golden Eagles were averaging a solid 5.3 yards per rush while UCF allowed just 3.7 ypr and Central Florida was averaging just 2.8 ypr. I gave out and played the game under the total and it sailed easily under in a 19-14 final. Again, mirages and illusions are sprinkled all over the sports betting world. The astute capper learns to distinguish the fog from what is real, and turn that into real profits!
Chris Copeland
Cope$ Early Bird NFL + CFB Pass w/Post-Season FREE
Chris finished #1 in the NFL in 2009-10 and has two Top 9 finishes (1 top 3) in College Football over the past few years and is rearing to go this Football season.
With this pass, receive EVERY NFL and College Football play Chris releases starting the day you sign up. Act now, and Chris will throw in his coveted College Football Bowl Season Pass and his NFL Pre-Season and Post Season Passes ABSOLUTELY FREE!
That's every NFL Pick (Pre, Reg and Post Season) and every College Football Pick (Reg and Bowl Season) for one low price. Sign Up Today! - $529.00
Click here to view all of today's premium picks.
Social Bookmarking
| Home / Articles / Statistical Illusions |
Statistical Illusions
|
10StarPicks Newsletter
Thousands are already profiting from our free picks, insider sportsbook news and sports handicapping leaderboard reports! Enter your email address below to subscribe for free.
For Email Newsletters you can trust
Sports Betting News
Featured Subscriptions
|
Chris Copeland Cope$ Early Bird NFL + CFB Pass w/Post-Season FREE Chris finished #1 in the NFL in 2009-10 and has two Top 9 finishes (1 top 3) in College Football over the past few years and is rearing to go this Football season. With this pass, receive EVERY NFL and College Football play Chris releases starting the day you sign up. Act now, and Chris will throw in his coveted College Football Bowl Season Pass and his NFL Pre-Season and Post Season Passes ABSOLUTELY FREE! That's every NFL Pick (Pre, Reg and Post Season) and every College Football Pick (Reg and Bowl Season) for one low price. Sign Up Today! - $529.00 |
|
Tony Karpinski Early Bird NFL & College Football Monster Package **Early Bird Football Special + Pre-Season NFL FREE. Pre-season NFL starts next weekend. Get 7 Full months of football action with all football from August thru the Super Bowl in Feb of 2011. This includes all of the College Bowls and NFL Playoffs. Normally $800 for each, ORDER NOW and get both College and NFL for just one low price of $895 with our Early Bird Special. The last 3 years and combined College and NFL and Tony hit over 62%. He has been the #1 Sports Handicapper in Football the last 4 years! He has already begun getting several signups for his Early Bird Football Deal which only $895 for all football thru the Super Bowl. TonyK won over $31,100 for his dime players throughout the football season last year and this year promises to be just as good and well worth the investment! There will be nothing else to purchase. - $895.00 |
Today's Free Picks
- Tom Stryker:
Purdue vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - Sep 4, 2010 3:30 PM EDT
- Sean Higgs:
Syracuse vs. Akron (NCAAF) - Sep 4, 2010 6:00 PM EDT
- Matt Fargo:
NorthWestern vs. Vanderbilt (NCAAF) - Sep 4, 2010 7:30 PM EDT
- Tony Stoffo:
Wisconsin vs. UNLV (NCAAF) - Sep 4, 2010 11:00 PM EDT
- Doc's Sports:
Tulsa vs. East Carolina (NCAAF) - Sep 5, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
- Terron Chapman:
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (NCAAF) - Sep 6, 2010 8:00 PM EDT
Hottest Handicappers
- Wunderdog Sports: MLB2010 36-23 (62% for +$966)
- Kyle Hunter: MLB2010 10-2 (84% for +$876)
- Tony Corleone: MLB2010 96-63-4 (61% for +$619)
- Tony Karpinski: MLB2010 27-20 (58% for +$608)
- Rob Vinciletti: MLB2010 27-19 (59% for +$514)
- John Ryan: MLB2010 26-22-2 (55% for +$509)
Sports Betting Buzz
Sports Betting Headlines
NFL Headlines
- NFL Betting Picks - Eagles in Cincy to Take on Bengals
- Pronósticos NFL: Ã?guilas vs BengalÃes En Pretemporada
- Which AFC North Teams Will Be Super Bowl Contenders?
- The NFL Shouldn't Allow Percy Harvin To Play
- Apuestas Futuras NFL: McNabb Busca Salvar El Honor De Washington
NCAA Headlines
- Bet on NCAA Football - To Win the Big 10 Conference
- College Football Betting - Breaking Down Week 1 Lines
- College Football Predictions - To Reach BCS National Championship Game
- Week One Lines - Make Your College Football Bets!
- Betting Against Oklahoma With Low College Football Odds to Win the Big 12 This Season
NBA Headlines
- NBA Betting - New Orleans Hornets Should Trade Chris Paul
- NBA Betting - Where Would Carmelo Anthony Go Next Summer?
- NBA Trade Update - Rockets Trade Ariza In Salary Dump
- LeBron Meets With Rabbi For Business Advice
- NBA Futures Update - Tracy McGrady Signs One-Year Deal With Detroit Pistons
MLB Headlines
- Thursday Night MLB Betting Tips - Red-Hot Hurlers, Ice-Cold Ballclubs and More
- MLB Betting Breakdown - Payday-Producing Thursday Night Betting Breakdown
- MLB Wednesday Betting Breakdown - Payday-Producing MLB Betting Tips
- MLB Betting Breakdown - Cash in With Terrific Tuesday MLB Betting Tips
- MLB Tuesday Night Betting Breakdown - Tuesday Night Struggling Starters, Stellar Stats







