Saturday’s 136th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is shaping up to be a particularly interesting affair, especially given the fact that the two morning line favorites, Lookin at Lucky (3-1) and Sidney’s Candy (5-1) drew the 1st and 20th posts respectively. Why is this significant you might ask?

Well, keep in mind that only 12 horses have won from the No. 1 post and no horse has done it since 1986 when Fedinand accomplished the feat. Running out of the No. 1 spot is considered a disadvantage, due to the possibility of getting jammed on the first turn of the 1 ¼ track. Coming from the 20th position is challenging because that horse will have the longest trip around the oval. While difficult, it is not impossible, as two horses have won from the 20th spot, most recently Big Brown two years ago.

Eskendereya made it 2 years in a row that the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby was injured and could not compete. Eskendereya is one of four horses in the field trained by Todd Pletcher, who is 0 for 24 in the Derby. His absence opens it up for what was already a deep Derby lineup that features at least eight horses capable of capturing the roses.

Devil May Care is a 10-1 co-third favorite as she attempts to become the fourth filly to win the Derby. The last filly to run in the Derby, Eight Belles, finished second two years ago. She’ll take on the boys from the 11th post. One drawback for the Filly at the 11th spot is she’ll have to sit in the gate for awhile. The other co-third choices are Florida Derby winner Ice Box (10-1) and Gotham winner Awesome Act (10-1).

As for Pletcher’s other horses, Super Saver is 15-1, Mission Impazible is 20-1, and Discreetly Mine is 30-1. Creeping under the radar is Hall of Famer trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner, who will saddle Dublin, which is listed at 12-1. Saturday’s longshots include Make Music for Me (50-1), Backtalk (50-1), Dean’s Kitten (50-1) and Homeboykris (50-1). Keep in mind that a year ago, 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird stunned the field and won under a rail-hugging ride by Calvin Borel. Borel will mount Super Saver this time.

PICK: My only concern for Sidney’s Candy is this will be the colt’s first time on dirt. The 20th position doesn’t worry me as much, but even still, after sweeping the California preps, we’ll look for that momentum to carry over. Lookin At Lucky will challenge, but the No. 1 post may be too much to overcome in the end. By the unbeaten Candy Ride, Sidney has the pedigree to prevail and the real test will be if he can sit just off a projected very hot pace and quicken in time to make the top and hold off the deep closers. We think he can.. Superfecta- Sidney’s Candy on top, with Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, Devil May Care and Ice Box. Good luck to all.
 

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