Last year, I wrote an article titled: Donuts To Doughnuts midway through the NFL season. So with two weeks of play already in the books, I figured I’d update this article to include the seasonal numbers from 2007. Here is the updated version of my Donuts To Doughnuts article: There’s one thing you don’t see too often in the NFL…shutouts. But when they happen, we can use them to our advantage and make a few bucks by using my Donuts To Doughnuts strategy. Shutouts are not that common. And when an NFL team puts-up zero points in a game, they usually bounce back with a good performance. Because the talent level of all NFL teams is so close, a good spot to play-on a team is when they come off a shutout loss. Over the last 5 years, there have been a total of 1,280 NFL games played. There have been a total of 41 games in which one team was held scoreless. So that averages out to just 8.2 times per year and about 3.2% of all games played. A rare occurrence indeed. NFL teams off a shutout loss are just 20-21 straight-up in their next game since 2003. But, if you played any NFL team in their next game after a shutout loss, you would have gone 22-18-1 against the spread for a decent 55% winning angle over the last 5 years. A very simple money maker that requires no handicapping at all. Let’s break it down to see if there is a situation that works better than another. Overall Underdog: 6-14 SU, 10-10 ATS Overall Favorite: 14-7 SU, 12-8-1 ATS Overall Home: 15-15 SU, 16-13-1 ATS Overall Road: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS Home Favorite: 13-6 SU, 11-7-1 ATS Home Underdog: 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS Road Favorite: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS Road Underdog: 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS
According to the above numbers, the best way to utilize this Donuts To Doughnuts strategy is to play-on NFL home favorites off a shutout loss. Teams in this situation have gone 13-6 straight-up and 11-7-1 against the spread. They win by an average margin of 11.6 points per game.
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