I have been researching the NFL and College FB over the past several weeks in preparation for another successful and profitable season. I have found a few “total wins” plays for you to join me on. Parity has been the dominant word from the NFL administration and over the past several years it has offered up some great opportunities. Simply said, we are going to be contrarian in thought looking to back last year’s worst teams and play against last year’s best teams. In each year, we have see Cinderella teams that have far exceeded expectations for that season and some have even made the playoffs after being one of the worst teams in the NFL. I strongly believe that one of the best and most reliable technical indicators of the strength of a team is yards per point. This overlooked stat ahs done extremely well in identifying ATS winners as well, but more on that in future weeks. The longer it takes a team to score points the greater the YPT stat. This implies a direct correlation to offensive turnovers or a below average defense that puts their offense in long scoring drive predicaments. Yards per play, both offensively and defensively, are other factors as well. The bottom 5 – the wrist team sin football last year were Atlanta with a an 18.2 YPT reading, Carolina (18.2), Miami (19.1)Tampa Bay (20.5), Oakland (23.4). These teams also had decent opportunities in the draft as well.

Let’s take a look at the win totals for this group. Atlanta is 4.5, Carolina 7.5, Miami 5.5, TB 8, and Oakland 6. Atlanta will require years to rebuild and even though it may look easy for them to win 5 games, I feel there are better opportunities. I like Carolina at 7.5 and Oakland at 6. Making a long story short, if you look at the personnel on these teams, most would agree that these two teams may be playoff contenders and even divisional contenders too.

There is another play I really love as well and that is to play UNDER 8.5 with the Philadelphia Eagles. After reaching the NFL Championship in 3 straight seasons and losing to the Patriots in the Super bowl, the Eagles are heading down. McNabb’s best season was when TO was in town and quite frankly, TO made him look far better than he really is. He is largely inaccurate and does make numerous poor reads – even though he is a veteran NFL quarterback. The defense has been shredded in games and the linebackers have been exploited in nearly ever game. Mc.Nabb still has not “TO like” WR to throw too and the offensive line will have to be one of the best in the NFL to not only protect McNabb, but support the running game. So, at 8.5 wins, I think this is a near no brainer.

 

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