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NFL Wide Receivers 2019

America's Bookie

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By: America's Bookie
Date: Aug 21, 2019
   
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NFL wide receivers have the ability to create splash plays and have monster weeks, but they also can go weeks with limited production. That is why when we look at NFL futures for the WR position, we want to attempt to attack consistent and reliable situations and fade volatile ones.











 

Julio Jones Over 1525.5 Receiving Yards

This line just feels a bit off to me based on Julio’s past production. Since 2014, Julio is 3 for 5 in hitting the over on this prop and he was injury riddled in both 2016 and 2017, where he hit the under by about 100 both years.

Julio is consistently dominant and I expect his situation to be similar to what it has been in previous years. I even think that this situation is better than last season, where he put up 1677 yards. Julio is in a good offense with too many weapons for him to be singled out but there aren’t too many weapons either.

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This is a situation where Julio should be asked to carry a huge load for the offense, but Calvin Ridley, Mo Sanu, Austin Hooper, and Devonta Freeman will not allow teams to focus only on Julio. If I was given 16 games of Julio, I would expect closer to 1700 yards than 1525.5, so this one is a no-brainer to me.

Michael Thomas Over 1250.5 Receiving Yards

Coming into the season, I am really worried about Drew Brees’s struggles at the end of last season throwing the ball downfield. However, I do think there is a real case to the idea that he hurt his shoulder and that is what caused the struggles. Either way, I just think that this number is again too low for Thomas.

Thomas’s production has increased each of his first three seasons and this failing to reach this number would likely indicate him regressing to below his second professional season. Thomas’s situation has not changed a lot since last season and I don’t see a lot of reasons to suggest that his target share should change much. The combination of Ted Ginn Jr. and Tre’Quan Smith as deep threats should be really helpful to draw attention away from Thomas, but neither are going to pick up a bunch of receptions.

Alshon Jeffrey Under 850.5 Receiving Yards

First of all, Alshon has not hit this mark since the 2014 season, so it’s not like there is a long standing track record we are up against here. Now, a lot of that has to do with the fact that Alshon has had an injury-riddled career, but that is part of this projection anyways.

The reason I am fading Jeffrey here is simple, the Eagles do not need Jeffrey to touch the ball too much, especially as he ages as an oft-injured player in the league. The Eagles have Desean Jackson, Nelson Agohlar, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and Darren Sproles, not to mention rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who has a lot of similar qualities to Jeffrey himself.

This plethora of similarly skilled and trusted talent should make you comfortable fading Jeffrey because he could have games where he fails to touch the ball much and the Eagles still win. I love fading obvious WR1’s that really aren’t that important to the offense.

In this offense, I think that every single defense will put their best corner on Jeffrey unless they need a speedster on D-Jax. That being said, why do the Eagles need to force Jeffrey the ball against the worst matchup instead of getting the mismatch with Sanders, Jackson, Goedert, ect? They don’t need to do this and I think that going away from Jeffery this year will often be the best way for the Eagles to operate efficiently on offense.

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