The single most important factor which determines the straight-up and pointspread winner in the NFL is turnover margin. The parity and level of competition in the league is at an all-time high and a team can not afford to give away two or three possessions per game and expect to win. In fact, NFL teams that win the turnover battle have covered 80% ATS the past three seasons.

Predicting turnovers on a single game-by-game basis is often random and difficult; however by analyzing current turnover margins at for entire the season, we often find value going with or against certain teams in the future.

The biggest disappointment so far this season is the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers who stand just 3-6 SU/ATS. The Steelers have continually outplayed their opponents on the line of scrimmage, but rank dead last in the league with a -8 turnover margin.

The Oakland Raiders also have a -8 turnover margin and stand just 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS. Oakland has been particularly unlucky in regards to fumbles as the Raiders have an 11-2 disadvantage this season. Fumbles are 90% random in the NFL and this number should even out as the season progresses.

There are 14 teams that currently have a negative turnover margin and only one of those fourteen teams has a winning straight-up record. That squad is the New Orleans Saints who stand an impressive 6-3 SU/ATS. The fact that New Orleans continues to win both outright and against the pointspread, despite losing the overall turnover battle, shows the Saints remain underrated by both the oddsmakers and the betting public.

While it is important to know which teams are struggling with turnovers, it is also important to analyze which squads have benefited from their opponents’ mistakes. The Baltimore Ravens lead the league with a +13 turnover advantage, due largely to a league-high 18 interceptions by their defense. Baltimore is still a below average offensive squad that could present some future play-against situations based on their inflated 7-2 SU record.

There are 16 teams with a positive turnover margin (+1 or better) and only the Cincinnati Bengals (4-5 SU) and the St. Louis Rams (4-5 SU) currently have losing records. This is a dangerous sign to any potential backers of those squads as they have been unable to win consistently, despite holding the turnover edge.

Turnovers are by far the most influential factor in determining the outcome of NFL games. While they are often difficult to predict on a week-by-week basis, it is important to analyze the seasonal numbers as they often point to undervalued and overvalued squads down the stretch.

 

Steve Merril
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