NFL Props: Top Interesting Bets to win 2019 MVP

The MVP conversation hit a bump when Andrew Luck, previously listed at +700, announced his retirement last week. Since this point, we have seen a lot of the top end of the odds flatten out. Patrick Mahomes is still the clear leader in the race at +500, but no one else is under +1000.

The Top Six

Patrick Mahomes is starting to creep into the realm of playable for me at this price. At the beginning of the offseason, I was really high on Andrew Luck at +700 over Patrick Mahomes at +300. This is because Luck clearly had the talent around him to compete for the spot at more than double the price.

Now I am pretty sure if that is the case for anyone else in this range and I am just not too sure how many players can really win this award this year. I expect Mahomes to have a slight downtick in total yards because I think every defensive coordinator in the league is spending time attempting to stop this kind of offense. I don’t think they’ll be successful, but they’ll be more prepared than they were last year.

Now we need to look at who else up here can take the title away from Mahomes and his monster stat totals. I think that guy is Baker Mayfield.

The Browns acquired Odell Beckham Jr. in an attempt to make this team a complete one with an elite receiver that can take any throw to the house. Jarvis Landry is a really consistent and great second option. David Njoku is a freak athlete and great receiving threat as a tight end.

The thing that not a lot of people are discussing is the addition of Todd Monken to the Browns coaching staff. The same Todd Monken that had Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick LEAD the Bucs to the most passing yards in the NFL last year. They were 4th in passing attempts and second in yards per attempt, two things that are often produced with the Air Raid philosophy.

If Monken thrusts Baker Mayfield into a similar situation with this talent, I expect a HUGE year from Baker. Maybe one that can even compete with Mahomes statistically. Nevermind the narrative around Baker Mayfield and the Browns getting to the playoffs are having an elite passing attack.

Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees are all between +1000 and +1200 and I just don’t see the value. Could any one of them have a career season? Sure. Is there any rhyme or reason to which of those 4 would make that leap? I don’t really think so.

The Dark Horse

The field really thins out when you drift away from the pack and I really struggle to find anyone that I think can compete with someone like Mahomes. Now obviously, Mahomes could get injured on week two and the bar will be drastically lowered in terms of what you need to do to be the MVP, but I am not banking on that. In that case, I want to look at players who could avoid competing with Mahomes at all.

Christian McCaffrey at +5000 is someone that gives me some hope because he can be elite as a receiver and as a pass catcher. The Panthers have some new receivers that are getting a lot of buzz with the departure of Devin Funchess, but I think that we could see a season where CMC rushes for 1000 yards and also has 1000 yards as a receiver.

Last season, McCaffrey had just under 1100 rushing yards and just under 900 receiving yards. Now, what if he breaks a few more big plays for 1300 rushing yards and 1050 receiving yards and the Panthers make the playoffs?

I think this is very within the realm of possibility and I think that CMC is the type of player that can garner enough hype at a different position. He was a top 10 pick, Heisman finalist, and someone that has been on a lot of people’s radars for a while now. I think the narrative is there for Christian McCaffrey to make a run at +5000. Before the NFL starts next week, hurry to your favorite pay per head bookie location at  realbookies.com  and make a few bets and win some money!

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