In case you haven’t paid attention, scoring is up in the NFL this year. It’s not just up; it’s way up. NFL games are averaging 51.4 points per game, nearly six points more than last season. But will this trend continue into today’s free pick?

If you have really tuned in, you’ll know that scoring has regressed over the past two weeks. Of last week’s 14 games, the Under hit in 10 of them and the average score for games in Week 6 was under 50.

LOW ROLLOVERS AND HIGH REWARDS AT AMERICA’S BOOKIE

The reason for bringing this up is because it will play a role in the Seahawks-Cardinals free pick.

Game: Seattle (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2, 4-2 ATS)

When: 4:05 ET PM, Sunday, October 25, 2020

Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Current Line: SEA -3.5 Total 56

TV Coverage: FOX

High Power Offense

The Seahawks lead the NFL in scoring at 33.8 points per game. When you add in that Seattle’s defense is not very good, you start thinking Over. Arizona and QB Kyler Murray put up 38 points last week albeit against 2-4 Dallas. The Cardinals have an offense that can score.

Now, remember the Seahawks had a bye last week. What do you think the focal point of the entire off week was for Pete Carroll and his coaching staff? Give yourself an “attaboy” if you said defense.

Defensive Woes

Seattle is last in the NFL in total yards allowed (471.2) and last in passing yards allowed (370.2). The Seahawks are also 29th in yards per play (6.2) allowed. Surely, Carroll and his defensive staff addressed all of this over the past nearly two weeks. 

While you’re still thinking Over, don’t jump the gun just yet. Through three weeks of this season, the Over was 29-19 (60.9%). Since then, the Over hasn’t performed all that well checking in at 17-22-1 (43.6%).

What is happening, of course, is that the total is working its way back to the mean. Sportsbooks upped their totals over the past few weeks to counter the amount of money coming in on the Over. 

Where does that leave Seattle and Arizona?

History Matters

There are plenty of angles to consider in this matchup. The Seahawks are coming off a bye. The Cardinals played on Monday night, so it’s a short week for them. It’s also a division game and the two teams have plenty of history.

MUST READ > BETTING NFL FUTURES

Seattle has won the last four straight meetings. The scores in each of those games were 27-13, 27-10, 27-24, and 20-17. The last five times the two teams have played in Arizona, the Under has cashed.

The Under is also 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games. In Seattle’s last 11 games as a road favorite, guess how many times the Under hit? Nine.

While both of these teams have highly capable offenses that can put up a bunch of points, the point total regression continues. With the total in this game set pretty high at 56, the Under looks like a solid play.

NFL Free Pick: SEAHAWKS-CARDINALS UNDER 56