They were once picked to surprise the rest of the NFL this season after consecutive 7-9 campaigns. It’s pretty safe to say that the Atlanta Falcons surprised everyone by starting the 2020 NFL season 0-5.

The start cost head coach Dan Quinn his job and now Raheem Morris is left to pick up the pieces, which starts this Sunday at Minnesota.

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The Vikings are in a similar boat with a lone win over Houston in their first five games. It’s 1-4 against 0-5, but one thing stands out and it makes this an easy pick.

Game: Atlanta Falcons (0-5, 1-4 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (1-4, 3-2 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 18, 2020

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Current Line: MIN -3.5 Total: 55

TV Coverage: FOX Sports

New Head Coach in ATL

So, even though Quinn was fired after the Falcons loss to Carolina last week, this is still a Quinn team. He was responsible for assembling the talent both on the roster and the coaching staff.

That said, we’ll treat this as a Quinn-coached team, which doesn’t do all that well against the spread. In fact, in Quinn’s five-plus years with the franchise, opponents sported a 48-37 ATS record. 

If you take out the one really good season the Falcons had - remember when they went to the Super Bowl? - when current 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was the team’s offensive coordinator, that ATS record for opponents is an even more shocking 42-27.

Quinn’s teams were just awful against the spread, but there’s even more to this story.

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Zimmer Getting His D Back

On the other end, Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is a coach that bettors love to back. In his career with Minnesota, Zimmer is 63-37-1 ATS in regular season games. You can break that down even further and find that Zimmer-coached Vikings teams are 30-16-1 ATS when at home and 45-18-1 ATS when playing a non-divisional opponent.

When you look at Zimmer’s ATS record when the Vikings play at home - 36-20-1 - it makes this pick easy. Even top cappers are having a time with this one!

Control the Clock

Remember who the Vikings are under Zimmer. This is a franchise that is based around strong defense, a powerful running game, and a coaching staff that doesn’t take a lot of risks. As a result, only once has Zimmer had a losing record in his previous six seasons with the Vikings.

Now, Atlanta is 31st in total defense allowing opponents 446 yards of total offense per game. The Falcons are also 30th in scoring defense giving up a whopping 32.2 points a game. You won’t win many games doing that. 

Morris, who takes over for Quinn and will serve as the interim coach for Atlanta, was the defensive coordinator. His defense is one of the league’s worst and Minnesota just ran for 201 yards last week against Seattle. 

Oh, and Zimmer’s record ATS in non-divisional games when the Vikings are favored? Yeah, that would be 19-4-1. It all boils down to making this free pick easy. Minnesota wins and covers on Sunday.

NFL Free Pick: MINNESOTA -3.5