The Green Bay Packers continue to look unstoppable and they should be able to find plenty of motivation to stay hungry against a wounded opponent, as we take a closer look at the Week 11  NFL betting matchups that seem likely to play OVER the posted total (all times Eastern):

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NY Jets at Denver (Thursday, 8:20 pm NFLN)

The Jets (6-3 O/U) are looking for a bounceback game just four days after getting blasted at home 37-16 by the Patriots. Prior to that setback, the Jets had won three games in a row with consistent offensive outputs of 24, 27 and 27 points respectively – scoring totals that rank just above their season average of 23.9 points per game (14th in the league).

The Broncos (6-3 (O/U) have won three out of four games since Kyle Orton was replaced by Tim Tebow as the starting QB, despite scoring more than 18 points in only one of those four games (when they beat the Raiders 38-24 less than two weeks ago). However the Broncos rank second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (158.2), and their defense ranks a lowly 29th overall in points allowed (29 points per game).

The past two matchups between these teams have both played OVER the total, which was set at 43 at Denver in 2010 and 48 at Giants Stadium back in 2008. This time around the total is set even lower at 40.5, and historical trends supporting the OVER are abundant with this matchup.

For example, the OVER is 14-2 in the Jets' past 16 road games, 18-7-1 in their past 26 road games, and 20-7 in their past 27 games overall. For the Broncos, the OVER is 12-2 in their past 14 home games, and 22-8 in their past 30 games overall.

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (Sunday 1:00 pm FOX)

The Buccaneers (5-4 O/U) have lost four of their past five games, including last week's 37-9 blowout at home to Houston. The Tampa Bay defense ranks 28th overall in points allowed (25.9 per game) and passing yards allowed (263 per game), 29th overall in rushing yards allowed (138.2), and 31st overall in total yards allowed (401.2 per game).

The Packers (6-3 O/U) are of course undefeated so far this season and seem to be able to score as many points as they need to win a game, scoring 42 points or more in four of their nine victories so far – including 45 in each of the past two weeks. The Green Bay offense ranks first overall in points scored (35.6 per game), third in passing yards (306.9 per game) and fourth in total yards (409.7 per game).

These two teams have also played OVER the total in their past two matchups, hitting 61 points in 2009 and 51 points in 2008 with both games played in Tampa Bay – and both games won by the Buccaneers. With the total for this game sitting at 48.5, it's revenge time for the mighty Packers at Lambeau. The OVER is 8-2 in Green Bay's past ten games as a merciless home favorite.

Honorable Mentions

Cincinnati at Baltimore (40.5):
The surprising Bengals and solid Ravens are tied for second place in the AFC North, just a half-game behind the Steelers (who are on a bye this week) which puts increased emphasis on the importance of this matchup. Prior to falling short 24-17 at home to Pittsburgh last week, the Bengals had scored at least 23 points in five consecutive victories – four of which were OVER plays. Both of these teams are 7-2 O/U this season, the Ravens are favored by a touchdown at home, and the OVER is 6-2 in Baltimore's past eight games as a favorite. Meanwhile the OVER is 4-1 in Cincinnati's past five games as an underdog.

San Diego at Chicago (45):
Only in the AFC West could the Chargers (4-5 O/U) have lost four straight games and still be in the hunt for a division title. But that's certainly the case as San Diego takes an offense that ranks fourth in passing yards and scores at a rate of 24 points per game to Soldier Field to square off against a Chicago offense that ranks sixth overall at 26.3 points per game. The Bears (5-4 O/U) have scored 30 points or more in three of their past four games - all victories – and the OVER is 8-2 in Chicago's past ten games at home.

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NFL WEEK 11 SCHEDULE
(all times Eastern)

NY Jets at Denver (Thursday, 8:20 pm NFLN)
Jacksonville at Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 pm CBS)
Carolina at Detroit (Sunday, 1:00 pm FOX)
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (Sunday 1:00 pm FOX)
Buffalo at Miami (Sunday, 1:00 pm CBS)
Oakland at Minnesota (Sunday, 1:00 pm CBS)
Dallas at Washington (Sunday, 1:00 pm FOX)
Cincinnati at Baltimore (Sunday, 1:00 pm CBS)
Seattle at St. Louis (Sunday, 4:05 pm FOX)
Arizona at San Francisco (Sunday, 4:05 pm FOX)
Tennessee at Atlanta (Sunday, 4:15 pm CBS)
San Diego at Chicago (Sunday, 4:15 pm CBS)
Philadelphia at NY Giants (Sunday, 8:20 pm NBC)
Kansas City at New England (Monday, 8:30 pm ESPN)
Byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Houston


 

Kyle Hunter
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