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NFL Betting: AFC East Preseason Report

Tony  Stoffo
Tony Stoffo

Tony Stoffo is the author of the famous gambling book, Money Management for the Year Round Professional.

By: Tony Stoffo
Date: Jul 28, 2008
   
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Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.  In the 2007 NFL preseason at 10starpicks my preseason selections went a documented 12-3 hitting at a solid 80%. All these plays were found in my 2007 preseason report I released.

In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.

A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 4 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.

Here are the 4 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:

Atlanta - Mike Smith

Baltimore - John Harbaugh

Miami - Tony Sparano

Washington – Jim Zorn

OK so here are this year’s highly rated preseason money making trends for each team.

 AFC East

Buffalo – This will be Dick Jauron’s third preseason as head coach of the Bills. In his first two years as head coach has produced just a .500 record in the preseason going 4-4 against the spread. However if we take a closer look some interesting betting trends have already started to form. In the Bills first preseason game Jauron has had them ready to play covering both of his week one preseason games. This continues a trend that has seen the Bills go a perfect 4-0 against the spread in week # 1 of the preseason over the past 4 years. So our first play on the Bills this preseason will be on August 9th with they visit the Redskins. While just the opposite is true in their dress rehearsal game where all the regulars play as Jauron puts no importance in winning this game as the Bills have lost this game under Jauron’s the last 2 years which also continues a losing trend while the Bills have lost this important game the last 4 preseason’s. So keep an eye on when the Bills pay a visit to the Colts on August 24th and finally in their last preseason game where the majority of the teams care nothing about. Jauron has done very well winning both of his last preseason games outright as a dog. So as you can see the Bills are a perfect example of have you can hit some nice plays in the preseason.  

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: J.P. Losman, Trent Edwards, Matt Baker, and Gibran Hamdan

Miami – With Bill Parcells taking over as executive VP for football operations of the Dolphins, and surrounding himself with all of his Dallas buddies. Have to look for some improvement from Miami this preseason as Parcells always tried to win in the preseason. Even when he took over a bad Cowboys team he immediately started winning in the preseason.

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: 
Josh McCown, John Beck, Chad Henne

New England – Belichick and the Patriots used to be a big money maker in the preseason thru the years. However since the Super Bowl rings have started to add up the preseason has just become a waste of time. The only game that Belichick tries in know is the Patriots dress rehearsal game where they have gone 5-1 against the spread with their last lost coming back in 04. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Eagles at home on August 22nd.

 
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez,
Kevin O'Connell

New York Jets – In his two years as head coach of the Jets Eric Mangini has gone just 4-4 against the spread.  The only trend that is starting to develop is that under Mangini the Jets are 3-1 in their preseason road games. Key play this year may be against the Super Bowl champs on August 23rd.

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge


 

  Tony Stoffo
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