Now we have a March Madness for the ages. Underdogs
went a combined 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds of
the 2011 NCAA
men's basketball Tournament, clearing out all three remaining No. 1 seeds in
the process. This will be the first Final Four ever with no 1-seeds or 2-seeds.
And the basketball odds burned quite a few sharp players over the weekend,
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The biggest shocker came on Sunday, when the No. 11 Virginia
Commonwealth Rams eliminated the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks 71-61 as 11.5-point
underdogs. The Jayhawks were the most dominant of the 1-seeds during their first
three Tournament games, but their shooting deserted them against the Rams.
Kansas hit just two of 21 trey attempts while VCU canned 12 of 25 to advance to
its first Final Four.
Cinderella stories don't come much bigger than
this. The Rams (28-11 SU, 18-20 ATS) are just the third 11-seeds to reach the
Final Four, following in the footsteps of the 1985-86 LSU Tigers and the 2005-06
George Mason Patriots. But those two teams didn't have to play their way into
the field of 64. Virginia Commonwealth got one of the last four at-large
invitations to the Big Dance this year, and therefore had to play in the
inaugural "First Four" round in Dayton, where the Rams (+4) upset the USC
Trojans 59-46. VCU is now 5-0 SU and ATS at March Madness this year.
Up
next for the Rams: the No. 8 Butler Bulldogs (27-9 SU, 19-13-2 ATS), who have
also run a clean sheet against the NCAAB
odds at 4-0 SU and ATS. In Saturday's Elite Eight action, the Bulldogs (+4)
defeated the No. 2 Florida Gators 74-71 in overtime, Butler's third close shave
in four Tournament games. The Bulldogs will be favored in next Saturday's
matchup with VCU (6:09 p.m. ET, CBS) with a chance to return to the championship
game after narrowly losing to the Duke Blue Devils last year. The only other
8-seed or lower to reach the title game was the No. 8 Villanova Wildcats in
1985.
The faves did somewhat better on the other side of the bracket. The
No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (29-8 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) are the overall favorites among
the remaining Final Four. The Wildcats nearly crashed out in their first game
against the Princeton Tigers of the Ivy League, but they're 3-0 SU and ATS since
then, including a 62-60 win over the overall No. 1 seeds, the Ohio State
Buckeyes (–5.5). That's not entirely shocking, though: Kentucky played much
better than a 4-seed going into the Tournament, currently ranking sixth overall
in Division I according to Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings.
Kentucky's
next opponents are the highest seeds left at the Big Dance, the No. 3
Connecticut Huskies (30-9 SU, 21-12 ATS). The Huskies were on an amazing 8-0 SU
and ATS roll going into their Elite Eight matchup with the No. 5 Arizona
Wildcats (+3.5), who had eliminated Duke in the Sweet 16. Arizona failed to hit
the possible game-winning 3-pointer in a 65-63 final. That sets up a titanic
battle between UK and UConn on Saturday night (8:49 p.m. ET, CBS).
So the
Final Four teams are a combined 15-2 ATS at the Tournament. Here's how they've
managed against the total:
VCU: UNDER 3-2
Butler: UNDER
3-2
Kentucky: UNDER 4-0-1
UConn: UNDER 4-1
Can these trends hold up
in Houston? Favorites are 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS at the Final Four since 2002,
and the OVER is 11-4-1 in those 16 contests. But we're already in uncharted
waters as far as this Tournament goes. Virginia Commonwealth, of all teams, has
won four of five games by double digits. If the Rams continue on to win the
title, there will be some very rich bettors out there. VCU was 350-1 to win the
title heading into March Madness, compared to a mere 200-1 for Butler, or 18-1
for either Kentucky or UConn. We should also have a big payout on the props
market once the Tournament's Most Outstanding Player is announced. At the open,
UConn's Kemba Walker and Kentucky's Brandon Knight had the shortest odds of any
remaining player at 25-1.
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