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NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

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By: BoDog Sportsbook
Date: Mar 18, 2008
   
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As the hottest and most talented team in the region, the UCLA Bruins are heavy favorites to make it out of the West.

With a mix of talented small schools and slumping high-profile programs, most of the West region could go any direction in the first and second rounds.

But in the end it would be a tourney shocker if the No. 1 UCLA Bruins aren't the last team standing.

The Inside Story

As soon as Selection Sunday finished picking the West division, one thing came to mind: No team should stop UCLA from making the Final Four.

The Bruins recently grabbed the Pac-10 title and are riding seven in a row. Meanwhile, the other top seeds in the division like No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Xavier and No. 4 UConn have all been inconsistent down the stretch.

Duke shouldn't even be a No. 2 seed, especially since they're coming off a loss to Clemson in the ACC tournament semis and have been upset by weaker ACC squads like Miami and Wake Forest during the regular season. No. 3 Xavier won the Atlantic 10 regular season title but fell to St. Joseph's in the conference semis. And UConn has been playing .500 ball in their last six, losing to Villanova and Providence near the end of the regular season and then losing to No. 7 West Virginia in the quarterfinals of the Big East tourney.

On top of having an easier road than other tourney No. 1's, UCLA will be playing two games in their home state. They've had the same lucky break the last two seasons, and were able to reach the Final Four in each. If there are any bumps in UCLA’s road to the Final Four, they only have themselves to blame.

March Madness 2008
Odds to win the West region
Team (Seed) Odds
UCLA (1) 2/3
Duke (2) 11/4
Xavier (3) 11/1
Connecticut (4) 9/1
Drake (5) 14/1
Purdue (6) 20/1
West Virginia (7) 22/1
BYU (8) 50/1
Texas A&M (9) 40/1
Arizona (10) 22/1
Baylor (11) 30/1
Western Kentucky (12) 50/1
San Diego (13) 100/1
Georgia (14) 40/1
Belmont (15) 300/1
Mississippi Valley State (16) 500/1

Bracket Buster

Georgia Bulldogs. They've been through too much to count them out as a Cinderella squad now. Before the SEC tournament, the Bulldogs lost 10 of their last 12 games and were 4-12 in the SEC. Things were looking so bleak, there were whispers from fans that head coach Dennis Felton would be fired at the end of the season. But Georgia proved that the conference championships can truly reinvent a team. Four days and four wins later, the Bulldogs enter March Madness as SEC champions poised to give more teams headaches.

Improvements on defense have been key to their success. After giving up 95 points in overtime against Mississippi in the SEC tourney's opening round, they've allowed just 57.6 points per game, almost 10 points better than their season average (67.2 ppg).

Xavier, Georgia's first-round opponent, is coming off a 20-point first half against St. Joseph's in the ATL 10 semis, which proves they can be shut down if Georgia continues to apply pressure on defense.

Best Bet

Which No. 2 ranked seed will be the first to be eliminated from the March Madness 2008 tournament?

Like I said earlier, I think Duke was ranked too high by the selection committee. Ironically the mistake could be what bounces them out of the tournament before any other No. 2 seed.

Despite getting an easy opening-round opponent in No. 15 Belmont, the Blue Devils are stuck with the winner of No. 7 West Virginia and No. 10 Arizona in the second round. Basically, the choice is either face an Arizona squad that has played and beaten some of the Pac-10's finest, or play the team with arguably the hottest player in the country.

I don’t think Duke will make it past either.

X-Factor

Arizona is battle tested. Believe it or not, some of Arizona's losses to top-flight schools could amount to wins in the NCAA tournament.

The Wildcats have gone 4-8 in the last 12 games, but faced some of the toughest competition in one of the toughest conferences in basketball. During that stretch, Arizona faced No. 9 seed Oregon once, No. 6 seed USC twice, No. 1 seed UCLA twice and No. 4 seed Washington State twice.

Plus, this is the Wildcats' 24th straight appearance in the NCAA tournament. They may not have the most talent in the region, but you'd be hard pressed to find a team with as much experience against premier competition.

Watch These Guys

Joe Alexander, West Virginia. There isn't a hotter player in the NCAA tourney than Alexander. The kid's been averaging 26.3 points in his last six and has dropped 30-plus on Big East powerhouses Pittsburgh and UConn.

What makes him dangerous is his versatility. At 6 feet 8 inches and 200 pounds, Alexander has the size to take smaller guards/forwards down to the block but also has the speed to attack bigger guys on the perimeter. His ability to take advantage of mismatches should serve him well if West Virginia gets by No. 10 Arizona and faces No. 2 Duke in the second round. As good as the Blue Devils can be defensively, they have nobody inside that will be able to stop him.

Adam Emmenecker, Drake. The Drake Bulldogs are a team that can run and shoot you out of the building, and senior guard Emmenecker has been the key to that style. A walk-on turned MVC Player of the Year, Emmenecker has been the team's playmaker all year with an average of 6.2 assists per game. However, with this being the first year he's received significant playing time, Emmenecker didn't look to score early on. As the season has progressed, so has his scoring, and during the MVC tourney he averaged a team-leading 16.3 points. Look for him to raise his game during the tournament.

Headed to the Sweet 16

No. 1 UCLA, No. 5 Drake, No. 3 Xavier and No. 7 West Virginia.


 

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