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NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

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By: BoDog Sportsbook
Date: Mar 18, 2008
   
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Can Kansas finally break through, or will Davidson shock us all?

You'd think that any discussion of top shooting guards in the Midwest region would start with Brandon Rush of Kansas. That's not the case when Stephen Curry and O.J. Mayo are lurking. In a bracket littered with defense-first squads like Georgetown, Wisconsin, Kent State and Kansas State, the shooting guards offer the kind of flash that routinely electrifies March Madness.

In fact, Curry may be the one player who has the most to gain from this year's NCAA tournament. The super sophomore from Davidson has a more complete game than his father, Dell, who was an NBA sharpshooter for 16 seasons. Now, he'll have the opportunity to awe the nation the way he has the Southern Conference for the past two years.

Mayo, meanwhile, leads No. 6 USC in what's likely his lone NCAA season. The Trojans' star finished second in the Pac-10 in scoring as a freshman and is a good bet to turn pro after the tournament ends. Rush will, too. The Kansas Jayhawks' junior has routinely propelled the nation's fifth-ranked team to victory.

His relatively low average of 12.6 points per game is more a result of the Jayhawks' balance than any other factor. On another team, Rush would be close to the 20-point mark. As a member of talent-laden Kansas, Rush can wait for his shots rather than force them.

The Inside Story

Can Kansas finally go all the way? After years of being a power, the Big 12 champs are still seeking another Final Four berth and their first national crown since Danny Manning was making a name for Larry Brown. After beating Texas to win the conference championship on Sunday, the Jayhawks are as confident as any team in the nation heading into the tournament.

"This is the year," Rush said after claiming the Big 12 tournament's MVP honor. "This is the year we've got to do it. We've got five seniors leaving. Some people might be leaving early. We've got to make it happen. We're not ever going to have a team like this again."

A now-or-never attitude can carry a team a long way. That intangible may be what the Jayhawks have been missing. Whether it's enough to push them deeper into the tournament than they've gone in recent years will soon be known. With March Madness odds of 11/2 to win it all and 1/1 to reach the Final Four, the Jayhawks are the popular bet to cut down the nets in Detroit.

Besides Rush, they have Darrell Arthur, Mario Chalmers and emerging Darnell Jackson. They lack height, though, and could fall into trouble if they need to rely on their perimeter game to win.

March Madness 2008
Odds to win the Midwest region
Team (Seed) Odds
Kansas (1) 1/1
Georgetown (2) 10/3
Wisconsin (3) 9/2
Vanderbilt (4) 14/1
Clemson (5) 15/2
USC (6) 10/1
Gonzaga (7) 25/1
UNLV (8) 40/1
Kent State (9) 80/1
Davidson (10) 25/1
Kansas State (11) 25/1
Villanova (12) 50/1
Siena (13) 80/1
Cal State Fullerton (14) 200/1
UMBC (15) 250/1
Portland State (16) 500/1

Bracket Buster

Davidson College. Davidson may be the most talented No. 10 seed in the history of the NCAA tournament. They were ranked 23rd in the Associated Press poll after going 20-0 in the Southern Conference. They own the longest current winning streak in the nation at 22 games and have a backcourt that would be the talk of basketball were Curry and point guard Jason Richards playing in Durham or Raleigh and not a suburb of Charlotte, N.C. CBS bloviator Billy Packer was all over the Wildcats on Selection Sunday, calling them this year's George Mason. Problem is, a lot of people already know and respect Davidson.

Before George Mason made its run to the Final Four in 2006 as a No. 11 seed, very few people – Packer included – thought the school deserved an at-large bid. On the other hand, Davidson earned an automatic bid by winning its conference, and no one doubted its worthiness to be in the Big Dance. So don't think of the Wildcats as a Cinderella so much as a long shot that offers exceptional value.

Best Bet

Kent State (-2, -130) over UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels had their turn in the spotlight last year. This time it's Kent State that could do some damage. The Golden Flashes play some serious defense and have a true go-to scorer in Al Fisher, who averaged 14 points en route to winning the Mid-American Conference Player of the Year award. They should win this tough 8-9 matchup before meeting the Jayhawks.

X-Factor

The toughness of the Clemson Tigers.

The region's fifth seed took North Carolina to overtime twice during the ACC's regular season and they have the kind of inside-outside game that poses unique challenges during the NCAA tournament. Senior power forward James Mays (6 feet 9 inches, 230 pounds) is a bruiser who gives the Tigers a degree of grit that's needed to survive and advance.

With 15/2 odds to reach the Final Four in San Antonio, the Tigers offer solid value for your March Madness bracket.

Watch These Guys

Roy Hibbert, Georgetown. Other than Curry, Mayo and Rush, the player who could have the most to say about the outcome of the Midwest region is also the tallest starter in the bracket. Hibbert, a 7-foot-2-inch center, can dominate at times simply by raising his hands high and accepting the ball.

What's kept Hibbert back is a lack of killer instinct. He's a big man who sometimes plays small, failing to be aggressive and disappearing at key stretches. How far the second-seeded Hoyas go largely depends on how well their big man can secure the paint.

Michael Beasley, Kansas State. Another inside force to watch is K-State freshman Beasley, who leads the nation in rebounding. Beasley also averages 26.5 points and will be pitted in a duel with Mayo when the Wildcats face USC in the first round.

Headed to the Sweet 16

No. 1 Kansas, No. 5 Clemson, No. 6 USC, No. 10 Davidson.


 

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