If a favorite is not favored by as many points as it seems they should, it’s likely due to situational analysis. In such games, the public is loading up on what they consider an “easy” bet, while the sharps are jumping on an underdog in an ideal situation or going against the favorite in a let-down spot, thus keeping the line down, as books try to balance the action.

Play AGAINST a team that is getting more than 3 points in line value in relation to Power Ratings by the oddsmakers.

The people getting paid to set the lines simply do not make a mistake of a TD or more on a game. If a team is favored by more than 7 points over what it “should” be or favored by more than 7 points less than what it “should” be according to Power Ratings, the oddsmakers are telling us something, especially if the public is not siding with the inflated number. It’s likely the sportsbooks believe the discrepancy between the Power Ratings and true line is even larger than revealed with their opening number, but are tempering their opinion so as not to get unbalanced action.

FUNDAMENTAL HANDICAPPING- These matchup tools provide the biggest edges and provide the strongest plays when they expose one team’s strength going against an opponent’s weakness.

Play ON a team with the superior defense, especially if a team’s defensive strength neutralizes the opponent’s offensive strength.

This could cause them to go with plays they are not well suited for.

Play AGAINST a team that struggles against certain types of offenses or is unaccustomed to playing certain offenses when facing such an opponent.

A team that usually plays a certain type of foe within its conference will probably struggle against an offense it’s not used to facing, especially if they have struggled in the past against similar opponents.

Play ON a team that has extra time to prepare for a one-dimensional offense.

Many unusual offensive schemes are tough to prepare for in one week’s time. If a defense has another week or more before facing such an opponent, they will have an edge.

Play ON a team that recently did well against a certain type of offense and is facing the same type of attack again.

The team will be in tune with how to slow down such an opponent and have the confidence to execute the game plan.

Play ON a team that has done better against common opponents in the current season.

STATISTICS-

Play AGAINST a low-IQ, error-prone team, especially if favored.

Squads that turn the ball over frequently, take low-percentage shots, and commit stupid fouls will usually find a way to lose or at least fail to cover the spread when favored. The better such a team is perceived to be, the more line value should exist on the other side, as the pointspread will reflect little, if any, of this weakness. That's the exception, rather the rule. Usually, such teams will be among the worst in the league; however, not all struggling teams are created equal. Betting a "bad" team that is playing fairly well fundamentally and not playing "dumb" is a much better investment than backing a "bad" team that is making many unforced mistakes.

Play ON a team off a narrow defeat in which a 4th-quarter rally came up just short, especially if they are underdogs.

If a team made up significant ground in the final quarter but still lost, it can be a strong indication of a weak team gaining confidence and about to enter an ascending mode. The public only sees an "L", so there will be little reason for the public to back them in their next game, providing line value on this overlooked squad.

Play AGAINST a team off a narrow win in which they nearly blew a large lead in the 4th quarter, especially as a favorite.

If a team nearly choked away a game that was in hand after 3 quarters, it can be a strong indication of good team about to go bad. The public only sees a "W", and will probably be inclined to back them in their next outing, leaving little line value on this team. Meanwhile, a blown 4th-quarter lead that didn't result in a loss can easily follow a team into its next game.

Play ON a team off a game in which they won statistically but lost on the scoreboard.

The public looks little beyond the final score and does not examine the stats, so a team off such a loss will often provide great line value.

Play AGAINST a team off a game in which they lost statistically but won the contest.

The public looks little beyond the final score and does not examine the stats, so a team off such a win will often be overpriced in their next game.

SITUATIONAL HANDICAPPING – These tools are very important, as the best team is not always playing up to its potential and sometimes the weaker team is in a more favorable position. Teams play at different levels from week to week. Just as the old stock market adage advises to “buy low and sell high”, playing against teams in down spots and on teams at their peak will result in profitable investments.

LETDOWN-

Play AGAINST a team off a nationally televised blowout win.

As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the winning team as invincible and will think they are a “sure thing” the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the pointspread accordingly, so there is no line value with this team.

Play AGAINST a team off its peak performance of the season.

Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler”, or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the title”, they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.

Play AGAINST a team with a coach and/or players admitting that they suffered a disheartening loss and have to follow it up with another tough game, especially if they are playing without rest or in the middle of a long road trip.

Play AGAINST a team with less than 2 days rest off a SU loss of a point or 2 in which they allowed an opponent a game-ending, double-digit run.

Play AGAINST a team off an extended break that followed a winning streak.

Whether it’s a an unusually high number of days off following a very successful run of games, or the All-Star break, a team that was performing at a very high level can have their rhythm broken with extra time off.

GETUP -

Play ON a Power team off a SU loss in a “zig-zag” situation.

The NBA Playoff “Zig-Zag Theory” simply says play the team off a SU loss. In reality, the better the team and the bigger the loss, the more compelling it is to “play on an NBA team off a playoff SU loss”. It does not apply or only weighed slightly in regards to the bottom three seeds in each conference off a loss. Number 4 vs. 5 and the next three rounds of the playoffs (barring big first round upsets), it should be weighed much heavier. During the regular season of every sport we will often play against a “team that needs it more” if the team is fighting just to make the playoffs. If a team was proficient at winning “must win” games they would probably not be playing in must-win games late in the year. Conversely, 1-5 seeds, especially as the playoffs go deeper, have the ability to rebound from adversity and respond when their backs are to the wall. To the professional handicapper there is a huge difference between desperate elite teams and desperate inferior teams playing in a crucial contest. Likewise, the margin of the loss is also applicable. Nothing affects public perception more than the last game they have seen. It’s not uncommon for a blowout in the previous game to influence an opening line by 2-3 points and more times than not, the closing line by more. Plus, no matter how motivated and well-coached a squad is, it defies human nature to approach a game with as much vengeance off a 22-point win as it is for the team off the huge setback. A .520% or worse team off a loss is not even close to being the same as a .700% or better team off a defeat. Nor is the mindset the same for a team that lost a game that went down to the wire the same as one that got humiliated on national television.

Play ON a team off a nationally televised blowout loss.

As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and won’t want to touch the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team.

Play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance.

A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out.

Play ON a power team for several games after an embarrassing loss.

Many sports investors know that betting on a top-shelf team following a rare defeat or embarrassing whipping is often the right call; however, win or lose, many bettors will then drop the team like a hot potato afraid to tempt fate again. The best teams did not become the best by believing that one good win cancels out one bad loss. There is more spread value in riding power teams at least two and three games following a loss, and even more sometimes. Especially in college football, basketball and the NBA, top-shelf teams will usually take out their anger for several games.

REVENGE –

Play ON a team looking to avenge a favored loss last year that ended their season or cost them a title.

If an upset loss occurred in a playoffs series or cost a team a playoff spot, redemption will be on the minds of the players.

Play ON a team looking to avenge a loss in a game they should have won, especially if it’s a “bad beat”.

It may be the last game at the same site played against an opponent or it may be the last game played overall against an opponent. The public may look back at a previous meeting and see little more than the final. Players hate to lose through unusual circumstances, such as a Hail Mary shot at the buzzer or bad call by an official. If the score was misleading, line value should be on the side of the revenge-seeking team. Coaches comments made following the earlier game should reveal what the mentality of the teams will be.

Play ON a good team looking to avenge an embarrassing loss.

A proud squad that looked awful in a loss will be determined to show the opponent and the world that the previous meeting’s outcome was a fluke and that they are the better team. Meanwhile, their foe is likely to be a little over-confident due to the ease of the earlier victory.

Play ON a good team looking to avenge a loss in which their opponent rubbed their faces in the defeat with the outcome already decided.

A proud squad that had insult added to the injury of defeat will be counting the days until the rematch when they will unload a lot of pent-up anger against an unsuspecting foe.

Play ON an underdog looking to avenge recent domination in the regular season.

The more the one-sided results are publicized by the media, the more this will be reflected in the pointspread due to the public’s wagering on a favored “lock”. Meanwhile, the underdog will be very motivated, while their foe is likely to suffer at least a temporary let-down with “everyone” telling them how “easy” the playoff series will be.

REST –

Play ON a team in the middle of a cluster of games that is playing well, even without much or any rest.

Many handicappers will automatically fade or at least pass on a team that is in a tough spot, schedule-wise. This overlooks the fact that the oddsmakers are usually one step ahead. The line already takes into account such factors. Momentum and adrenalin are the best cures for exhausted bodies. We still take into account minutes played in recent games by the star players, depth, whether games went down to the wire on in overtime, but If a team is in a groove, a short vacation is the last thing they need. Being “in the zone” more than nullifies any supposed rest disadvantage.

Play AGAINST a well-rested team that just finished a string of good games.

There's a common notion that rest can only be good, but very often hot teams can lose their edge with three or more days off. Being road weary and playing poorly is a bad combo, but being well rested while playing well can be, too. Rest is best for teams that clearly need it. A team playing inadequately can make adjustments, but a break in the schedule can be counterproductive for teams in a groove.

Play ON a struggling team off an extended break.

An nice, long rest can be just what a team needs when on a losing streak or playing well below expectations. Whether it’s an unusually number of days between games, or the All-Star break, time off from the court can be the remedy needed for the players. Refreshed bodies and attitudes, combined with coaching adjustments, can provide a needed boost of energy and confidence and key a turn around.

COACHING –

Play ON a team with a new head coach or assistant that was previously with his new team’s current opponent.

This situation is especially strong if the coach left with a bitter taste in his mouth and/or his new team is an underdog. These coaches know their ex-team and ex-players very well, and if the schemes they left behind are still in tact, they will have a a huge gameplanning edge.

Play ON a team with a new head coach who doesn’t fit the “thin, CEO” prototype.

When a coach is hired, despite weight or age issues, he got the job due to his coaching ability, not “used-car-salesman” act in an interview.

Play AGAINST a favorite with a new head coach taking over a winning program for a coach that has voluntarily retired.

When a coach retires on his own, he certainly isn’t doing it with its best year coming up. The team has probably hit a peak and the coach is leaving at the high point just as the expected drop off is on the horizon.

Play ON a team that is responding positively to a new coach.

Isolate a quality coach with a solid staff when there are reasons to support the team. Low turnovers and penalties are statistical signs of good, solid coaching that is getting results.

Play AGAINST a team that is not responding positively to a new coach.

When there’s a poor coach/team match, ride the wave against him. A high number of turnovers and penalties are statistical signs of poor coaching.

Play AGAINST a team with a head coach who has announced his retirement.

Such a coach is already retired for all intents and purposes, and is thinking about his off-season pursuits.

INJURIES -

Play ON the underdog when a superstar is injured and missing his first game, and possibly second game.

The pointspread will move to account for the absence of the key player. If a team is made an underdog due to the injury, they will have several factors in their favor. Generally, there is not as big of a drop in talent from the starter to the reserve as the public perceives. The back-up will be very excited to get his chance to shine, especially if he has experienced “live bullets” before. Secondly, the rest of the team will be very focused, knowing they all have to play their best in order to make up for their fallen comrade’s absence. They may also be determined to prove that they are not a “one-man team”. Finally, their opponent will suffer an emotional letdown without the challenge of facing the superstar.

If a team is favored despite the star’s absence, they won’t have the urgency to “pull together” as an underdog would in the same situation would. Additionally, their opponent’s confidence will be bolstered, knowing they stand a much better chance of pulling off an upset without having to face the key player.

Play AGAINST a team with an injured starter who is relatively unheralded, but is a mentor.

Players who instill a winning attitude in the rest of the team are natural leaders who cause their teammates to play at their highest level. If not a high-profile player in the public’s eye, their presence can be undervalued by the betting public

Play AGAINST a team playing without its superstar for an extended period.

The squad may have pulled off an upset win or 2 without him in the first game he missed; however, the longer the key player is out, the more it wears down the team, as they cannot sustain an above-average effort for long. When favored, this team will be especially vulnerable to suffering a letdown, as they won’t have the added motivation of proving “the experts” wrong.

Play AGAINST a team that suffered a season-ending or season-ruining injury to its franchise player.

Teams that have a unique franchise player can be devastated when that leader is lost for a long-enough time that it’s likely to ruin the team’s hopes for the season.

Play AGAINST a team with a star player returning to the lineup after missing an extended period.

The pointspread will likely move to account for the return of the key player, leaving little value on that team, especially if they are favored. If the team adjusted while he was out and developed some momentum, his return can easily disrupt team chemistry. Additionally, his teammates are likely to suffer a letdown, knowing they no longer have to make up for his absence.

Play ON a team that loses a key, yet disruptive, player to injury, especially if there's a solid backup to take his place.

Sometimes an injury can be a positive for a team, at least in the short term. If a player that's been bickering with the coach or causing problems in the locker room has to sit, it can be a case of "addition by subtraction". If there's a "team first" veteran to take his spot, he will likely have a positive, calming effect on the entire team.

Play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries.

Missing several starters all at once, a team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as its starting frontcourt or its top 2 point guards, also figures to struggle.

MISCELLANEOUS -

Play ON a team with a poor SU record but a great ATS record.

Such teams are the most undervalued on the board. Due to their bad SU mark, they won't get a lot of attention from the public, preserving their line value.

Play AGAINST a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record.

Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them.

Play ON a power team in the unfamiliar role of underdog.

Teams that aren’t used to being an underdog and rarely lose, will certainly be aware of the oddsmakers picking them to lose and use it as motivation. Expect this team’s best effort they are capable of.

Play AGAINST a weak team in the unfamiliar role of favorite.

Sometimes a team that is used to losing will get off to a good start or reel off a few wins unexpectedly only to find themselves in the uncomfortable role of the favorite. This is tough for them to handle. The coach may not have had any difficulty getting them up for a game as an underdog, but when the team takes on the pressure of being expected to win, it can be too much for them.

Play ON a favorite in a long winless streak.

When the oddsmakers take a team on a long losing streak and make them a favorite, they are telling us something. It may be a losing streak overall or even a record string of losses at home or on the road. It might be tempting to go against such a team, and that's just what the sportsbooks are hoping for. In such cases, it's time to use the linesmakers' knowledge against them and play the favorite.

Play AGAINST an underdog in a long, undefeated streak.

When the oddsmakers take a team on a long winning streak and make them an underdog, they are telling us something. It may be a winning streak overall or even a record string of wins at home or on the road. It might be tempting to back such a team, and that's just what the sportsbooks are hoping for. In such cases, it's time to use the linesmakers' knowledge against them and play the favorite.

Play ON a team on a spread-covering streak IF there is an assignable cause for the streak AND there is still line value.

If a team has truly undergone a transformation due something tangible like a coaching change or finally grasping a new scheme, they may very well continue the streak, especially if the line hasn’t moved enough to completely compensate for the improvement.

Play AGAINST a team on a spread-covering streak IF there is not an assignable cause for the streak AND there is line value.

If the streak is due more to luck than true improvement, but the line has moved as if the team really is getting better, this squad is likely severely over-rated.

Play ON a “predictably unpredictable” big underdog.

There are many teams that will on a predictable basis, follow up a great effort with a dud and vice versa. This is typical of young teams or those with erratic star players, and talented but poorly coached teams. The same teams that seem to loathe prosperity also are the most dangerous once essentially counted out.

Play AGAINST a “predictably unpredictable” big favorite.

There are many teams that will on a predictable basis, follow up a great effort with a dud and visa versa. This is typical of young teams or those with erratic star players, and talented but poorly coached teams. The same teams that seem to only play their best when their backs are against the wall, are most vulnerable when they get a little breathing room and repeat the pattern all over again.

Play AGAINST a sea-level visiting favorite or very small underdog at an arena 1 mile or more above sea level when all factors indicate a close game.

The air is considerably thinner at 4000+ feet in elevation than those below 1000 feet. With the oxygen level greatly reduced at higher elevations, the heart and breathing rates increase to compensate. This is experienced as shortness of breath and early fatigue. It takes about 10 days for the body to completely acclimate to altitude, so low-altitude teams making road trips to the Rocky Mountains simply don't have enough time to fully adjust. They often struggle, especially late in the second half of a hard-fought contest.

Play ON the underdog in a game involving a team with a player serving a suspension.

With a missing “cog”, playoff favorites can play more conservative and tentative, playing right into the hands of the underdog who gain the confidence to become more aggressive. On the other hand, an underdog with a suspended player will get additional line value from the oddsmakers and rally behind an “us against the world” attitude, while the favorite may become complacent knowing their opponent is missing a player.

Play ON an underdog that is the source or target of "bulletin board material".

It's not a good idea to call out underachieving teams or players that need a wake-up call. It’s the old "why wake up a sleeping dog" syndrome. Thriving teams are more likely to be distracted by being on the giving or receiving end of calling out, while struggling teams are more likely to be awoken.

Play AGAINST a team suffering from a distraction that figures to interfere with the task at hand, especially if the team has been playing well prior to the disruption.

Such things as player feuds, contract hassles, coaching changes, celebrity holdouts, bickering between the offense and defense, DUIs, domestic troubles, and arrests are a few of the off-field distractions that can ruin a team’s ability to concentrate.

Play AGAINST a team with an outspoken, arrogant player or coach who suddenly goes quiet.

Player quotes and even some coaches words are a good gauges of a team’s mindset. In some cases, lack of words speak even louder. When a cocky player, or the rare cocky coach, who is normally quite eager to do some trash talking decides to "tone it down" for a certain opponent, he is usually revealing a lack of confidence. Such silence is picked up by the rest of the team and suddenly they don't feel so sure of themselves, and nothing is worse for a team's prospects in a game than lack of confidence.

Play ON an underachieving team that has been "going through the motions" after some type of major stimulus.

Replacing the coach is the ultimate short-term wake-up call, but there can be any number. The “players-only team meeting” or lineup change are a couple of examples. It may even be something negative like a well-publicized player-player dispute or player-reporter confrontation. Ultimately, a positive stimulus or not, it can still give a falling team something to "circle the wagons" and rally around.

Play ON a road team, especially an underdog, that has struggled at home with off-court/off-field distractions.

The road is often a sanctuary for such teams. They feel less pressure and heat away from the home fans. These teams may be overvalued at home, but will be undervalued on the road.

Play ON a team after it has rid itself of a problem player that was a disruption.

Certain players may not be obviously infected with a losing virus but sure seem to be carriers.

Play AGAINST a team that has added a player that has been a big problem elsewhere.

Certain players may not be obviously infected with a losing virus but sure seem to be carriers.

Play AGAINST a team that has lost a well-liked leader, even if he is not considered a top star.

Some players are natural morale-builders even though they don’t have high profiles in the media. The loss of one of these “father figures” can have an even bigger psychological effect on a team than the loss of a high-profile celebrity.

Play ON a team with highly respected and admired player in his last game before retirement.

The player’s teammates will likely rally to send him out a winner.

Play AGAINST a team with a coach or players displaying negative body language in contradiction to their “positive” words.

What a coach or player says to the press can have very little to do with what he actually thinks. Body language and immediate reaction to questions are much more revealing than the words that come out of his mouth. Coaches are generally better at censoring their answers than players are, so reading between the lines is especially important with them.

Play ON a team with a coach that has expressed great satisfaction with his team's practices.

Coaches are famous for "coachspeak" in press conferences, but they have demonstrated to be trustworthy and impartial when it comes to evaluating their team's preparation before a game.

Play AGAINST a team with a coach that has expressed a great deal of dissatisfaction with his team's practices.

Coaches are famous for "coachspeak" in press conferences, but they have demonstrated to be trustworthy and impartial when it comes to evaluating their team's preparation before a game.

Play AGAINST a team that is backed by a reliably poor indicator

It may be the consensus favorite of an office pool, panel of media “experts”, or a single individual that just a knack for picking the wrong side.

Play ON a team with a new ownership trying to turn a team around after several poor seasons.

Some owners can’t get out of their own way. They just have a talent for mucking up their own chances, no matter how much money they spend for talent. When ownership changes, the entire organization will see it as a chance for a fresh start. Teams run by owners and executives in the front office with an upbeat winning attitude and that have established a good relationship with the players should raise their level of play.

Play AGAINST a team with a new ownership following a good deal of success under the previous regime.

Teams run by owners and executives in the front office with an upbeat winning attitude and that have a good relationship with the players have a big effect on the entire organization right down to the field. When this relationship ends, it will have a detrimental effect on the players who will be suspicious of the new regime and fear they won’t be treated as well.

Play ON a team with a higher level of maturity and character in a game which seems to be equally important to both teams.

Teams that are perennial winners, rarely get blown out, tend to recover quickly from defeats, and never concede a game before time runs out are signs of great fundamental maturity.

Teams run by owners and executives in the front office with an upbeat winning attitude and that have a good relationship with the players are signs of great fundamental character. On the other hand, some owners can’t get out of their own way. They just have a talent for mucking up their own chances, no matter how much money they spend for talent.

Ultimately, the motivation of the better team is more important than the motivation of their opponent. Sufficiently motivated, the better team should win and cover, regardless if the worse team has equal motivation or not.

Play ON a team with good morale.

In a healthy atmosphere, players go out of their way to accept blame for a loss. On a troubled team, players are anxious to pass the blame to someone else. Players helping each other up off the ground, congratulating each other, interaction, hustling back to the huddle, more energetic than their opponents, players and assistants surrounding the head coach on the sidelines waiting for orders, sideline players riveted to the action on the field, ect., are also signs of a team with lots of enthusiasm, camaraderie, and a deep-rooted desire to win.

Play AGAINST a team with poor morale.

In a healthy atmosphere, players go out of their way to accept blame for a loss. On a troubled team, players are anxious to pass the blame to someone else. Players lumbering back to the huddle and not pairing up, not helping each off the ground, appearing more tired than their opponent, not exchanging small talk with teammates, minimal congratulations given after a score, a head coach all alone on the sidelines, players on the sidelines sitting down and not involved with the action on the field are other signs of morale problems and of a team lacking chemistry and excitement.

ANGLES, TRENDS, & SYSTEMS - These ATS handicapping tools should be used as supportive info to supplement a decision, not the principle reason for siding on a game. Angles and trends may become useless with coaching or personnel changes, while systems may become outdated due to the oddsmakers catching on. Angles, trends, and systems should make sense to be used. If there is not sound reasoning to explain why one works, it may be nothing more than a statistical oddity.

Play ON a team with a strong edge in ATS trends.

Positive trends are stronger than negative trends. If a team has done well in a particular situation in the past, they are more likely to perform the same way in the future in a similar situation. On the other hand, if a team has performed poorly in a particular situation, the coach is likely to change the game strategy or his motivation technique.

Trends should fit the coach’s style and will no longer be valid when a coach leaves. Even with the same coach, a coach may have alter his team’s personality based upon change in personnel.

Play ON a team with a strong edge in ATS dichotomy angles.

Play ON a team with a strong edge in ATS POWER SYSTEMS.

We use a Star Rating system for our POWER SYSTEMS which factors in number of ATS wins, ATS average margin, longevity, and recent performance. As with our STAR SELECTION ratings, our POWER SYSTEMS are graded from 1-6 Stars.

The most overlooked factor in technical handicapping is complexity. The more complex a trend, angle, or system is, the more tenuous a connection between its past history and future performance is. The fewer factors and parameters, the stronger an angle, trend, or system is likely to be.

POINTSPREADS -

Play AGAINST a team that is over-valued by the pointspread according to the home/road dichotomy.

We test the accuracy of a line by switching the home and away teams and giving the new “visitor” 6 points for the switch of home field advantage. If the new, hypothetical line would obviously be off of what it would be in reality, the public is most likely over-reacting to recent form of one or both teams.

Play AGAINST a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves.

Early line moves are those that occur in the first few hours after the virgin lines are posted. They are to be respected. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other - a definite scenario for respecting the early move. The public is responsible for most line moves in the postseason.

Play AGAINST a team that is being favored by “normal” line moves.

Normal line moves occur from the end of the early period until an hour or two before gametime. These moves occur almost exclusively because of money. Whereas lines can move a full point or more very quickly during the early movement period, they have a tendency to creep in one direction or the other during the normal movement period, often at different paces in different places. This is where the public is influential - oftentimes a thousand $20 bets can push a line ½ point, as opposed to the early period when large wagers are the line movers. Here, books are trying to attract money to the unpopular side. When books respond to one-sided betting by steadily moving a line in one direction they are risking the house's worst nightmare - being sided or middled. So, when a line is slowly adjusted during the normal period, it is done with some risk for the bookmaker. Thus, lines will not move unless one of two factors occurs: The linesmaker is getting extremely one sided action or the linesmaker is reasonably sure the game won't finish right on or between the numbers. Normal line moves are therefore important to not because they offer a decent indicator of which side the public is betting and, thus, which side to avoid. The public is responsible for most line moves in the postseason.

Play AGAINST a line move of 3+ points in a spotlight TV game.

Such a dramatic line move in a game of national interest will be due to the betting masses. Line value will be with the linesmaker and not the public. The more unpublicized a game is, the more the line move should be respected. The public is responsible for most line moves in the postseason.

Play ON a team that has the line or "juice" moving against it, despite more money being wagered on its opponent.

The biggest sportsbooks sometimes don't move a line based upon the amount of money, but rather upon what they consider sharp money. This "reverse line move" reveals where the smart money is, even if its less overall than the square money. There's a reason it's called "smart" money. In higher profile games. Usually, only a huge injury would ever move an NFL line as aggressively as "sharp" activity can move a small conference college line. Bookmakers combat that by adding juice instead of points, but the same principle applies as to where the "smart" money is going.

Play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play.

These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business. The public is responsible for most line moves in the postseason.

This concludes our NBA Playoff Full Court Press we hope that you enjoyed the read and hopefully found the article useful in your handicapping process. Have a great NBA Playoff Season and as always good luck.