Home / Articles / NBA HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS.. By Bob Wingerter

NBA HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS.. By Bob Wingerter


By: Robert Wingerter
Date: Jan 15, 2009
   
Print This Article    Add This Article to Favorites

In Pro Basketball, winning and losing are often not the final criteria in judging a team. When one team plays better in defeat, than another does in winning, you can gain real value by seeing through the misleading results. When handicapping Pro Basketball, some fundamentals and considerations are not just the venue. Remember the worst team can beat the best team on any given day. There is more pure skill and athleticism involved in basketball, than football. Scoring requires more skill than football. In a typical NFL game, there are only about 6-8 scoring situations, compared to about 100-120 in an NBA game. In basketball there are many more possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams. This better represents team skill and is less of a determinant in a game’s final outcome.

A handicapper has to constantly research his own and other records to be able to predict more accurately, pointspread and values to any number of situations; travel situations, both teams style of play, match ups, injuries and much more. The upside is basketball has more potential for profit. In basketball there are fewer men on the rosters, making it easier to keep track of the players. The ball is round and the playing surface is smooth, making luck and happenstance less of a factor in handicapping the contest.

The rules in basketball are the simplest of all major team sports. This changes the flow of the game and the quality of the talent prevails over the luck in other sports. The length of the NBA schedule gives the bettor much more opportunity for profit.

In the NBA, there are fewer men involved in a basketball game, compared to the injury-prone football. For this reason, it is easier to assess values to injuries in relation to a game. The pointspread can be adjusted with more accuracy than football except when a quarterback or star players are out. Basketball lines are posted the same day and the injury information is not always up-to-the-minute and may not be reflected in the line. Getting the information before the lines move, can be a big advantage for the handicapper.

NBA Basketball has about 4 times as many betting opportunities as in the NFL. It's Sunday everyday during the NBA season. It is difficult to keep up with all the statistics, injuries and factors that influence every game. Sports Insight Web will not make predictions until the third week of the season, because the statistics have not started forming yet. There are opportunities though.

Young teams tend to be better prepared earlier than older teams. Aging veterans will not keep up their training programs as much during the off-season. Rookies and second-year men will be more durable. Early in the season, games figure to be lower scoring than later in the year. With all the extra pounds on the floor, bench players will get more playing time and the games tend to slow down late. Teams with the most new starters tend to make the most mistakes. Teams with the most players returning from last year will tend to do better than the ones with a lot of new faces, especially early in the season. The teams with a lot of new starters figure to take longer to get in sync.

There have been some obvious trends in the NBA in recent years. The best way to keep a coaching job is to average 50 wins, but there are many reasons for the turnover. Compared with the number of teams in the early 1970s, the NBA has expanded greatly, making it all the more difficult to win a championship. The media scrutinizes the coaches and constantly puts them under pressure. Today, high-priced players are more likely to complain to the management about their coaches or threaten to become free agents if they don't get what they want. The bottom line is money. Teams pay a lot more for players than they do for coaches. It is easier to change coaches than players. Old owners paid very little for teams while new owners pay very big amounts. They want results much quicker.

Another trend is the proliferation of the 3-point shot. With its rise, the fast break and mid range jump shot, have become lost arts. The big men who dominated the game, back in the1970s, are almost nonexistent today. The average number of points per game has dropped dramatically, as the majority of threes still clang off the rim. The NBA originally adopted a 3-point shot before the 1979-80 season, to give the league a boost.

Handicapping Pro Basketball is very challenging because the schedules are so grueling that you can only guess at a team's motivation until the playoffs. Most pro games are decided point-wise in the final few minutes. There is no compulsion for the favorite to win big, yet it usually has the talent to do so.

Due to their style of play, some basketball teams have a tendency to hang in against a better opponent. They may be losing teams, but discipline at both ends keeps them in the game. They can be spotted by looking at their pointspread trend. There defense offers a good clue.

Control teams occasionally get blown out when unable to dictate the tempo. Don't be misled because they are disciplined. They are not inclined to lose big twice in a row. Pro Basketball teams are able to control the tempo better at home. Disciplined quintets that are able to do this are a lot less of a risk when playing over/unders.

Be leery of high point favorites that lack bench strength or killer instinct, check previous records.


 


Click here to view all of Bob Wingerter's premium picks.

Social Bookmarking
Add to: Digg Add to: Del.icio.us Add to: Reddit Add to: Simpy Add to: Furl Add to: Yahoo Add to: Spurl Add to: Google Add to: Blinklist Add to: Newsvine


10StarPicks Newsletter

Thousands are already profiting from our free picks, insider sportsbook news and sports handicapping leaderboard reports! Enter your email address below to subscribe for free.

Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for Free Picks and Handicapper Reports
For Email Newsletters you can trust

Featured Subscriptions


Mike Devine
Mike Devine's Rest of Season CBB Special

As we get closer to the NCAA tournament the numbers are getting tighter and tighter. This is the time of year you need to be razor sharp with your numbers and information. Mike has been RED HOT the last month and his information and numbers have been right on the money. Mike is offering a rest of season package that will include all plays through the national championship game for one LOW PRICE!! Mike has been one of the top CBB cappers all season and has been successful overall the last decade. Mike will work very hard the next 2 months to FIND WINNERS AND MAKE YOU MONEY EVERY PLAY FOR $119.00!! - $119.00


Vernon Croy
2009-10 NBA-NCAAB All-Access Pass + Bonus 2011

***$299 SPECIAL*** Vernon Croy's EPIC 22-4 NBA RUN Continues after the All Star Break!!! You get all of Vernon Croy's NBA Plays for 365 days and you also get all of his premium College Basketball Picks for 365 days 100% free when you purchase this package! Vernon Croy was the 2004/05 NBA World Handicapping Champion for the regular season and he looks to get back his title back this season! Vernon Croy is one of the best NBA and College Basketball Handicappers on the planet and he has been banging out consistent profits for his clients on a daily basis for years. Vernon Croy knows these basketball teams inside and out and he uses his private basketball systems along with years of basketball knowledge on every hoops play he makes. One of Vernon Croy's biggest wins in the NBA was on the Toronto Raptors 3 years ago when he picked them on the moneyline of +460 and it won with ease and one of Vernon Croy's biggest wins in NCAA basketball was when he picked the Richmond Spiders to win SU as a 14+ point underdog. Vernon Croy lives for finding mistakes in the oddsmakers lines and he capitalizes on them finding several during the basketball and football seasons that build his clients bankrolls rapidly. - $299.00




Hottest Handicappers