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NBA Betting: Week 16 ATS Power Rankings

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By: BoDog Sportsbook
Date: Feb 14, 2008
   
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A look at the five best and worst bets in the NBA.

This opening was supposed to be about Jason Kidd and his trade from the New Jersey Nets to the Dallas Mavericks.

But since Devean George decided to power trip on the Mavs, everything's on hold until the deal is done... if it even gets done at this point.

"I've got to do what's best for me," George said late Wednesday. "My agent wants me to wait until he can talk to me and explain what the risks are... instead of just jumping the gun."

The deal was supposed to be Kidd, Malik Allen and Antoine Wright to the Mavericks for George, Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, DeSagana Diop and Maurice Ager, but George's no-trade clause, which he has exercised, has held things up.

If the deal still goes through, expect the Mavs to improve against the spread and total and possibly even pop into the top five on our power rankings at some point during the season. As for the Nets, expect them to look like a Div. II team that struggles to cover every night.

Here are the five best and worst bets ATS before the NBA All-Star break:

BEST BETS

5. Orlando Magic 33-20 ATS (Last 10: 4-5-1)

They still have one of the best ATS records in the NBA, but they've been out to lunch in their final games before the break. They've struggled in their last 10, and it's been because of their unwillingness to play any defense. When the Magic have allowed opponents to score over 100 points, they are 3-15 ATS on the season. They remain a solid bet to start the second half, but they're hanging by a thread.

4. Denver Nuggets 27-25 ATS (Last 10: 7-3)

I didn't expect to put the Nuggets in our top five at all this season. With a duo that dominates the ball like Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, the Denver role players don't seem to contribute consistently, which in turn has made Denver inconsistent. But with J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza filling up the boxscore on a regular basis (9.9 and 11.9 points respectively), they've been rolling.

3. New Orleans Hornets 31-19-1 ATS (Last 10: 5-5)

They've cooled down a bit in the last 10, but it's because they were too hot in January, going 12-1 ATS. They still have the talent and the personnel to go on another huge run in the second half. But buyer beware, they start their second half against Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Washington, Phoenix and Utah.

2. Utah Jazz 28-25 ATS (Last 10: 7-3)

The Utah Jazz were too talented to go 4-12 ATS in December, and that's been apparent with a 14-6 record ever since. The return of the dominance they showed in the 2006-07 season is because of their improved defense. They've allowed over 100 points in only five of their last 20.

1. Los Angeles Lakers 32-18-1 ATS (Last 10: 9-1)

It's amazing to watch the Lakers operate today. Kobe Bryant actually passes, and he passes a lot (he averages 5.3 assists per game). And with capable starters like Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom and of course, Pau Gasol making their shots, the Lakers' offensive attack is efficient and dominant. What's most shocking about their play lately is that they've done it while playing nine of 10 on the road. If the Kidd trade goes through, what has been the best trade of this wild first half will be debatable, but presently, it's not even close.

BAD BETS

5. Charlotte Bobcats 21-31-1 ATS (Last 10: 2-7-1)

There's something about the logo, colors and personnel of the Charlotte Bobcats that make them almost invisible on my basketball radar. At this point, I doubt people in Charlotte would care much if the team suddenly disappeared. Their struggles offensively and defensively seem to stem from their inability to rebound outside of forward Emeka Okafor, who averages 11.1 rebounds per game. They rank 18th in offensive rebounds and 26th in defensive rebounds.

4. Golden State Warriors 22-30 ATS (Last 10: 2-8)

They score a lot, shoot threes from anywhere, make bad shots look good and toe the line between order and chaos. The frantic style makes the Warriors the most exciting team in the NBA to watch, but as a wager, they're horrible. They're content with playing absolutely no defense regardless of who they face (they rank 30th in points allowed, 107.5 per game), which keeps any opponent in the game. They've gone 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games versus teams below .500.

3.  Memphis Grizzlies 24-27-1 ATS (Last 10: 4-6)

Second-year forward Rudy Gay is the only consistent scorer on the Grizzlies, and even his averages are below 20 points per game (19.8). With Damon Stoudamire, Stromile Swift and Pau Gasol all traded away, and possibly more trades to come, it's no longer a question of if this team will keep playing bad... it's how bad will it get.

2. New Jersey Nets 23-30 ATS (Last 10: 4-6)

The Nets are probably half hoping that George nixes their trade with the Mavericks to give them an excuse to keep Kidd on the roster, because without him on Wednesday, Feb. 13 versus the Toronto Raptors, they looked horrible. They were down in that contest by double digits from midway in the first quarter until the final buzzer. If they're going to play that badly, they might as well get rid of Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter as well.

1. Miami Heat 18-32 ATS (Last 10: 4-6)

I'm actually optimistic about the Heat’s new roster. Although trading Shaquille O'Neal for a perimeter forward like Shawn Marion puts them further away from an NBA championship than ever, their newfound speed on offense should translate into wins SU and ATS in the second half. As of right now, however, they're still the worst bet in the NBA.

More Good (Or Bad) Bets
  • My decision on whether the Dallas Mavericks will be a good or bad bet overall pretty much falls on the trade for Kidd. If it doesn't happen, the Mavs will continue their brutal year (21-28 ATS overall). If they bring Kidd in as planned, their stock should soar.
     
  • Believe it: The Knicks are a horrible team but presently not a bad bet. They're 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
     
  • Even with Tracy McGrady back, the Rockets are Yao Ming's team, and it's paying dividends in the win column. They've covered in seven of their last 10.

  •  

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