The story of this series boils down to two salient points: Dirk Nowitzki is outplaying Kevin Durant, and Rick Carlisle is out-coaching Scott Brooks. Nowitzki scored 12 of his 40 points in Game 4 over the last 4:33, even though he was guarded well. At the other end, the Mavericks' defense shut down the pick-and-roll between Durant and Russell Westbrook, a strategy that Brooks clung to with James Harden having fouled out.

Durant’s raw numbers from Game 4 still look impressive: 29 points, 15 rebounds and four assists. But the NBA’s top scorer two years running also committed nine turnovers, and Westbrook added another six. Both players finished with Offensive Ratings under 100 points per 100 possessions, Durant at 96 and Westbrook at 85. Nowitzki and Jason Kidd (17 points, seven assists, four steals) each recorded a 133 rating.

Brooks still has room to make adjustments, but his options are limited with a relatively thin bench and center Kendrick Perkins clearly not at 100 percent. If you’re a diehard fan, you can get the Thunder at +4000 to mount a comeback and go on to win the NBA title. The Mavericks are much closer to paradise at +150. There's also a total of 198 points up on the big board for Game 5 (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN); the OVER is 3-1 in this series and 5-0 in Oklahoma City’s last five games following a loss.

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