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NBA Betting: Keys to the West

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By: BoDog Sportsbook
Date: May 21, 2008
   
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The Spurs and Lakers meet again in the Western Conference finals. We give our keys to the series.

It's been a tough road to San Antonio vs. Los Angeles in the Western Conference finals.

There have been a lot of tough matchups, a lot of tough games and a lot of future Hall of Famers sent packing. But things ended up as expected.

The Lakers and Spurs had the best combination of talent, experience and superstardom to make it this far and should make for an epic Western final.

You may think the series will come down to which NBA superstar shines brighter in seven games, but there are plenty of other players, matchups, strategies and philosophies that’ll put one of these West Coast teams into the NBA finals.

Key Laker: Pau Gasol

No one in the league is capable of stopping Kobe Bryant from getting his, but unlike most squads, the Spurs can make the "Black Mamba's" bite a little less venomous.

That means that the Lakers' role players have to be ready to contribute, and Gasol needs to do it better than the rest.

He's a poor man's Tim Duncan: a player capable of commanding a double team, defending the opposing bigs while dropping a double-double. His current average in the playoffs is 20.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists, while Duncan's are 19.3 points 13.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists. If Gasol can keep up his playoff average, he will cancel out the Spurs' best player.

Key Spur: Manu Ginobili

Tough but flimsy, always off-balance but always on point, Ginobili can be the toughest Spur to guard when he's hot. He's adept and aggressive at slashing to the basket but always looks like he tripped on his own feet while doing it. The style always helps him get the first step on defenders and it draws a lot of whistles from the zebras.

In San Antonio's playoff losses, Ginobili averaged 15.5 points per game, and in their wins, 24.8. They'll need four big games from him to beat the Lakers in a best-of-seven.

Key Matchup: Derek Fisher vs. Tony Parker

Who's the highest scoring Spur in the playoffs? Here's a hint: It's not Duncan.

Parker is leading the team by putting up 23.7 points per game, and amazingly, most of his points come in the paint. His blinding speed constantly puts defenders on their heels and sets up the other Spurs for easy buckets.

His likely defender on the Lakers will be Fisher. A good perimeter defender who can nail a high percentage of his shots (59 percent from 3-point land in the playoffs), Fisher will be key to making the Spurs pay when they swarm the big three (Bryant, Gasol and forward Lamar Odom).

Whichever player is more effective in this series will make his team's offensive execution infinitely easier.

Key Laker Strategy: Play Duncan One-On-One

New Orleans Hornets coach Byron Scott made one crucial mistake during the conference semifinals against the Spurs: He realized too late that Duncan should be guarded one-on-one.

Tyson Chandler, a long and athletic center with tremendous shot-blocking ability, looked comfortable when matched up one-on-one versus Duncan in the second half of their Hornets vs. Spurs Game 7 collision. His defense of Duncan nearly led to a Hornets comeback and victory.

The Lakers would be smart to play Duncan the same way.

The Spurs seemed to live and die on their 3-point shot for most of the series versus the Hornets, and it was because Duncan would wait for the Hornets' double team and then swing the ball to the open man.

What New Orleans didn't realize is that for the first time in his career, it appears Duncan is no longer dominating players like he used to. He only averaged 15.3 points versus the Hornets and should be counted on to drop 35 and 15 like he used to.

Although not as good as Chandler on defense, Gasol’s length should be able to handle Duncan one-on-one which in turn will prevent San Antonio's daggers from downtown.

Key Spur Strategy: Change Kobe Bryant's Philosophy

Bryant has found that "Michael Jordan" zone. That place where you can drop 40 but still get all your teammates involved on offense. Bryant won the MVP award this year and has his Lakers in the conference finals because of his willingness to pick his spots and pass it to a shooter when double teamed.

The new Bryant will kill the Spurs in this series unless they can change him back to the 40-shot, ball-hogging No. 8 of yesteryear. To do it, they'll need to make things harder for his teammates.

Bryant's trust in his teammates to make open shots hangs by dental floss. All it'll take is a rough start by a couple of Lakers to make Bryant go one-on-five. The Lakers will have trouble winning a game if he has the put-the-team-on-my-back philosophy in effect.

Key Philosophy: Control the Tempo

The Lakers like it fast and explosive while the Spurs like it slow and efficient, so the team that's able to play at their tempo should control the series.

The Lakers' offense isn't always going 100 miles per hour like the Golden State Warriors. But when they are at their best, they're likely to score fairly early in the shot clock to keep teams on their heels and exploit defensive mismatches. With a lot of length on offense (three out of five starters are 6 feet 10 inches or more), they attack defenses before help can arrive. And when all else fails, Bryant will bail them out.

The Spurs, on the other hand, would like to keep the score in the 70s if they could. They'll use the whole shot clock to find the right shot, and they usually do. How else can you explain a team that ranks 14th in field goal percentage (45.7 percent) yet ranks just 28th in scoring (averaging 95.4 per game).

With that analysis, allow me to conclude with the obvious: If the game's in the 80s, expect a Spurs win; if it's in the 100s, Lakers all the way.

*****

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