Pistons vs. Cavaliers- Pistons played better ball down the stretch without Iverson, and their young guards Stuckey and Bynum have improved immensely as the season has progressed. If they would have drawn anyone else, I would have gave them a chance at the upset. However, the Cavs are simply too good, and if they stay healthy, this one shouldn’t go more than 5. 29 out of the last 35 meetings have played UNDER between these two teams.

Bulls vs. Celtics- Chicago is another team that really improved down the stretch, but it is worth noting that most of their damage came at home. Celts’ chances at a repeat probably disappeared with the loss of Big Ticket Garnett, but they are deep and talented enough to make it to the second round. Worth noting they were 16-7 OVER without KG in the lineup this season.

76ers vs. Magic- Orlando may benefit from the absence of Kevin Garnett more than any other team in the East. They match up very well with Cleveland, but can’t seem to beat Boston with a healthy Garnett in the lineup. They have won 8 of 9 against Philly, winning and covering all 3 meetings this season. 76ers allowed 8 of last 9 opponents to score 95 or more points, and lost 6 of 7 to end the season, with lone win by 1 in OT against a makeshift Cleveland team that rested 5 of its top 7 players, and played the other two each less than 20 minutes.

Heat vs. Hawks- Dwyane Wade is as good as anyone in this league, and he has single-handedly won playoff series in the past (remember the finals vs. Mavs in ’06?). He may be good enough to take this 7, but the Hawks are the better team, ranking in the league’s top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Jazz vs. Lakers- The Jazz have one win against a winning team on the road this season, and that came against a beat-up New Orleans team that the Jazz simply own. Barring injury, I see this one being a quicker exit for them than last year’s six game series between the two teams. Bynum is the X-factor for LA, and he has looked strong since his return, averaging 16.5 ppg. With Ginobili out of the picture for the Spurs, the Lakers should breeze through the west.

Hornets vs. Nuggets- Will try to get a feel early on as to just how healthy Tyson Chandler is. He is vital to the Hornets chances here. Nuggets rank in the league’s top 8 in both offensive and defensive (that’s right, defensive!) efficiency and the saavy Billups can make Paul at least earn things in this series. Teams split the regular season series, and are 5-5 in the last 10 meetings.

Mavericks vs. Spurs- Without Ginobili, I don’t expect San Antonio to want any part of running with the Mavs. The Spurs were uncharacteristically bad defensively down the stretch (47% FG over last 9), and if they play like that against Dallas, they will lose this series. Mavericks rank second in the league in FT% at 82%.

Houston at Portland- If there is such a thing as a sleeper in this conference, it’s the Rockets. Despite drawing attention to himself for the wrong reasons, Ron Artest is probably the most underrated player in this league, and he spearheads a Houston defense that is absolute lockdown when it needs to be. They own a big edge in playoff experience here as well. Brandon Roy is a dynamic player, but Blazers lone win in last 8 meetings was by 2 in OT at home in November. Should be a very good series, and think the Rockets pull the minor upset.

Pistons +12 over Cavaliers, Game 1

This certainly isn’t the Pistons first rodeo, and they have their best lineup healthy and on the court right now. This team simply could not function with Allen Iverson running the show, but are a much more confident club with improving young players to go with their veteran stalwarts. They played their best ball on the road this season, with outright road wins over Boston, Denver, the Lakers, and Orlando. The lineup they have on the floor right now is the same team that made a nice little run in early March. They are extremely familiar with today’s divisional foe, having played the Cavs in 2 of the last 3 seasons in the post season. They took 9 and 10 from Cleveland in the two regular season meetings between and see absolutely no reason for a better lineup to be taking 12 today. Detroit is a playoff-hardened club that will come out of the gate playing loose with nothing to lose. 95 ppg road defense can keep this one close all the way to the end. Cavs by only 6.