At this point of the football season the term “MUST WIN” is heard often as some teams face crucial games earlier in the season that will often determine their fate in the future. Of course in college football they are all must win games for teams who have designs on a national championship but in the NFL you start hearing this term around week 5 and 6. In the handicapping process whether you are a pro or a novice looking at teams that “HAVE TO WIN “ is always enticing in terms of making a possible wager and being comfortable with it. I have been able to hit about 55 percent of my plays over a large sample over a number of years in the NFL, and I know others have had similar success and are sharp savvy players who like to identify teams who are in a crucial situation. This is of course where the casual player and the sharper bettor differ when they start the process earlier in the week. The square or novice player will often identify these teams and place a wager on them using this criteria alone. After all they “HAVE “ to win so they will play well and hard right ? The team in a must win situation is a starting point, but placing a wager on them only because they have to win is foolhardy and will lead to eventual losses and your bankroll will take a hit. Think of it this way, when you go look for a house do you use one set of criteria to determine whether it’s a suitable dwelling for your family?? Of course not, you aren’t just looking for good schools or a pretty neighborhood , or a certain floor plan and when you find it you stop the process do you ?? It’s the same thing in this process, of course you can win bets occasionally cash a ticket or two her and there using one criteria but over time you will lose not doing further work. As I stated it is a good place to start, but it’s just that a start. When looking at teams that are in a crucial must win week you have to look at their current state , why they are in this predicament and if they can overcome what it is that got them to this point. You often get a more focused team which is a positive, but you also have to look at the coaching staff and determine if they are capable of devising a plan to actually be successful in these must win games. Secondly you have to make an honest assessment of what a team can do and what they can’t do and is this a match-up where they can actually be successful. Things that make these teams very desirable to wager on is circumstances that have changed from the previous down period, such as injuries , bad luck , a tougher schedule etc. Sometimes a team hasn’t gotten the job done due to things like this and if they are well coached and have some good personnel match-ups against their opponents they often have a great chance of cashing with that extra must win motivation. Another thing many overlook is their opponents situation as well , sometimes the other team is in a favorable situation to prosper and that negates the team in the must win spot’s chances. When you get a team off a big win or a team in a possible look ahead spot going against you and the must win team it can make it very attractive and may up your bet in many cases. One such spot this week to me and is worth a play is the Pittsburgh- Tennessee game. The Steelers at home are 2-2 , not a classic must win game but more a get yourself right type game where the Steelers a proud well run organization are feeling some heat after a lackluster start. Tennessee on the other hand is a team that has exceeded expectations a bit going 3-1 so far. Their signature win was against the Ravens who they handled easily, of course the Steelers got hammered by the Ravens by 30 but that result was skewed by a huge turnover margin, one of those games that just happens once in a while to most teams at some point. So I look at Tennessee riding high after three straight wins going into Pittsburgh who is reeling a bit, not playing really well , mediocre record and hearing some rumbling that they just may be too old now and aren’t going anywhere fast. So a good starting point to take a good look at the Steelers here. Looking closer at their performance after the week one debacle, they were angry and beat up a below average Seattle team 24-0 in a game that wasn’t even that close actually. So they showed some resiliency already this season off a tough loss. The then got taken to the wire against Indianapolis, not a great sign considering the level Indy is playing at now without Peyton Manning but a win on the road nonetheless. Lat week they played with Houston I thought , playing them even, but lost the game. The defense actually looked pretty decent against a good offense, which I take note of. Tennessee on the other hand opened the season at Jacksonville losing to a poor Jags team, then the Baltimore beatdown was followed by a close win vs. a bad Denver club and then a easy win at Cleveland which was fairly impressive even though Cleveland is hardly chalk full of offensive weapons. So summing it up I feel the Steelers are worth a play this week and the line is 3 ½ , but you can buy the half point for insurance, if that makes you more comfortable. The Steelers are in a spot where their focus will be great, they have something to prove, they are tough at home where they have only played once so far this season and will be happy to be back there, they have the capability of playing with good teams as they proved on the road at Houston, and they are playing an opponent with injuries and aging QB and most importantly a team playing with may be less urgency because they are 3-1 , a record some didn’t think they would have. But the loss to the Jags , the close win at home to a bad Denver club sandwiched around a great performance and a win against a team that is struggling doesn’t deter me from going against them vs. a team that plays well at home is priced fairly and is in a spot where there will play with more urgency. The Steelers should have enough for at least a 6-10 point win here. A more classic “MUST WIN “ situation is with the Eagles going into Buffalo this week. Now full disclosure I haven’t played or endorsed a play on the Eagles yet, but I am looking at this game hard. The Eagles were dubbed by some as a football version of the dream team after stockpiling a few high priced free agents this Summer. The Eagles are certainly good enough to win on the road against this team who can’t play defense really, The Bills are simply a sieve on defense , they don’t have the personnel to stop good offenses at this point, they thrashed Kansas City in week one , won a shootout with Oakland giving up a ton of yards and beat New England who basically gave them the game with sloppy play and they got a few bounces. This isn’t to diminish their offensive capabilities which are greatly improved with Fitzpatrick at QB and some nice weapons on offense who weren’t well known before but are emerging players with something to prove and they are sitting pretty well at 3-1 so far even off their loss to the mediocre Bengals. Not discounting their wins but I have a feeling that the Bills are in reality closer to the team that the Bengals outplayed than their previous wins or somewhere between that. The Eagles on the other hand are reeling losing a game they had no business losing after getting out to a nice lead at home vs. San Francisco, a game that has this team mad and angry and vowing to get tougher. Always a good starting point as I said but it becomes more attractive when you have Andy Reid a the helm a proven commodity , a team that has had success coming back from poor performances and a desperate team that will play very hard. They also have a dynamic offense that should be able to move the ball against the defense they are going against and while their defense is not playing that well and has some holes in the front seven will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and they can cover folks in the secondary. A 3-1 team going against a 1-3 team and the one ad three team is favored by about a field goal ON THE ROAD ?? Not something you see every day or NOT AT ALL really. As there always is ,there is a good reason for this rare situation. And to me it is because Philly is the Play here. When identifying must win teams, you need to also look at the teams history in this type of spot ,the coaching situation , fundamental personnel match-ups, and also where the other team is in their season and what weaknesses you can find to make it a definitive go against team. If you take these extra steps in the handicapping process you will be able to make stronger plays in certain situations with these must win teams with the added evidence, and just as importantly it will also keep you off some of these teams that may need to win but aren’t always capable of it despite the urgency. Play the Eagles at less than a field goal to grind out a win vs. the back down to earth Bills and the more desperate great at home Steelers buying the half point to beat the more satisfied 3-1 Titans this weekend. These teams have the coaching the Quarterback and a low stock price off of their poor performance but are capable of over out performing their current price point. Good luck in all your plays this week, and look at some of my packages for the rest of the season as we are up over 14 units since the start of the pre-season and hit 55 percent of our plays last year in the NFL.
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