Monday Morning Coffee The BCS should thank their lucky stars that they have just 1 more week to get it right. Based on the pools this week we see that the Big East Tital means more than the Big-10. OSU is 3rd in the polls. They lost 2 weeks ago to 3 loss Illinois . Illinois also lost to Missouri by 6 points. West Virginia University lost to 3 loss South Florida in late September. So, how can these “pollsters” claim to make WVU a higher ranked team than the Big-10. In my opinion, the winner of the Big-10 when compared to the winner of the Big East and with identical records, MUST be the better team. The Big-10 has far greater depth of competition than the Big East. The most likely scenarios are for Missouri to play West Virginia or for West Virginia to play in the National Title Game. That uses logic of course and ever since the first week when Appalachian State defeated Michigan the college football barometers have not been balanced. #4 Georgia, #5 V-tech, and #6 Kansas are all idel. So, if 3& LSU rips Tennessee by say 40 points and both of the 2 top teams lose will that be enough to see a title game featuring LSU and West Virginia? Perhaps so, and it would only be fitting in a season loaded with upsets that a team with 2 losses would play for the National Title since no team with 2 losses has ever done that. Looking at the LSU/Tennessee game my Ai Simulator does have a 3* grading on Tennessee. LSU is coming off a highly emotional triple OT loss and the loss of National Title hopes. Realistically, I can’t see both Missouri and West Virginia losing given that West Virginia is favored by 28 points. Missouri has actually been installed as a 3 point dog to #9 Oklahoma. Supporting this graded play is a 73% ATS 15-year winning system that has gone 41-15 ATS. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. You can easily nickname this system the let down system as there is nothing more demoralizing than losing to a conference foe installed as a favorite – a game the players know in their hearts they should have won and won easily. The you add the triple OT factor to it and you have a team that is ripe for a huge letdown game. Take UT.
| John Ryan | |
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