Monday Morning Coffee
Now, does the BCS finally have it right? They will by the simple default that are just a few games left for the top-5 teams – one of which, Ohio State, has already completed their season. LSU will obviously play for the National Championship by winning out and that is a very high likelihood indeed. LSU is favored by 12.5 points this Friday playing at home versus Arkansas. Should LSU win they will then face either Georgia or Tennessee for the SEC Championship. UT needed the 2nd largest comeback in school history (16 points in the 4th quarter) to defeat Vanderbilt 25-24. They now face Kentucky on the road and are 3 point dogs. No matter if it is Georgia or Tennessee, LSU will be large wood in the Championship game.
West Virginia can easily win out and you would think that if Kansas slips up either this week against Missouri or next week in the Championship game against Texas or Oklahoma, WVU could slip in to the 2 slot. Not so fast as Missouri would have the much better resume and certainly tougher schedule if they would win out and they may slip ahead of WVU into the 2 slot. Even Arizona State with a huge win over USC Thursday may have an outside shot. 2 weeks to go and it is only because there are 2 weeks left to the season that we now have 4 teams contending for the top2 slots; not because the BCS got it right.
Let’s take a look at the SEC game between Tennessee and Kentucky. Tennessee is a 3* graded LIVE Major Dog and has a 76% probability of losing this game by 3 or fewer points based on the Ai Simulator summary data. Supporting this graded play is a 15-year system that has gone 80-39 ATS since 1992. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is a good team winning 60+ of their games on the season. Tennessee has proven year in and year out they know how to defend a strong 1 dimensional passing offense like Kentucky. Note that Tennessee is 17-5 ATS versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better since 1992. Tennessee had just 1 forced turnover in its’ last win against Vanderbilt. This too puts them into a strong role to cover this game noting that they are 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
| John Ryan | |
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