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Mike Handzelek's Week 5 NFL Analysis, Review & Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 10, 2017
   
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Sunday, October 08, 2017 Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -140 Dallas Cowboys Pick Title: 9 Star Homer Revenge Call (LONE LOSS) Is this the same Green Bay team that came to Dallas last year for a 34-31 upset win on a 5l-yard FG as time expired? I sayeth not! This time it's much worse since the Packers have already have 5 offensive tackles injured forcing them to play 4 guards & a center on the interior line. Savior QB Aaron Rodgers has performed miracles before, but having 2 key weapons injured in RB Ty Montgomery & WR Davonte Adams. Rodgers may be more effective @ home since he averages UNDER 2 TD passes thrown on the road per game. I'm not sure he can keep pace with the offensive firepower the Cowboys bring into this homer. Remember, if it wasn't for 4 Bears' TO's last week, what would the outcome have been since Chicago out-gained the Pack by a 308-260 count? The Dallas defense was scheduled to return of WLB Sean Lee who returning from a hamstring injury. Even a bigger boost this week for Marinelli's 4-3 scheme is the return of MLB Anthony Hitchens & LCB Chidobe Awuzie. DLE also returns to the front line after serving a 4-game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs. On the flip side of the ball, look for RB Ezekiel Elliott to find some holes behind Pro-Bowlers' LT Tyron Smith, RG Zack Marin & C Travis Frederick. Even though everything looks peaches & cream from out standpoint, Vegas HAS ADJUSTED the line so we'll take back the advantage. Even though GB always has that dangerous back-door cover ability, I strongly believe the venue, revenge, better rushing & a healthier offensive line will take precedence OVER what the Packers can offer on the scoreboard. Let's go to AT&T Stadium to play the DALLAS COWBOYS as my 9 Star Homer Revenge Call! San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.0/-105 San Francisco 49ers Pick Title: 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (WIN off the buy) Contrary to the average success rate, this play has under-achieved thus far. So don't expect this trend to lose much the rest of the way. The Colts seem like they're playing well @ home after a 16-13 OT loss to Arizona & a narrow 3-point victory over Cleveland. However, what is important to remember is they're finally ready to take on their last NFC West opponent of which they've compiled a perfect 0-3 SU record thus far. In today's matchup, San Francisco RB Carlos Hyde may be the most effective playmaker on the field having for 321 yards @ right around 5 yards a clip. The 49ers may show an 0-4 SU record, but looks are deceiving since they've lost their last 3 games by a combined 8 points. Their offense is set to take on a defense that's ranked dead last in points allowed yielding a staggering 34 PPG. Whatever's happening in the locker room @ halftime is a BAD reflection on HC Chuck Pagano. Last week, an average Seattle offense lit up the Colts' "D" with CB Vontae Davis back to the tune of 36 points. In the numbers pinpoints that San Francisco QB Brian Hoyer has been money after a SU loss as he's gone a profitable 12-3-1 ATS but a more important 9-1-1 against the number IF he's against a losing opponent. Note that San Francisco put up 39 points against an L.A. Rams defense that Indy could only muster 3 FG's. My bottom line says that SF is clearly rushing the rock for a good 1 1/2 yards more per rush than Indy. With both QB's (Hoyer & Jacoby Brissett) only throwing 2 TD passes each thus far, i like our chances in a FG duel since 49ers K Robbie Gould comes into this one hitting 11-for-11 on the season. Let's make way over to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buying to a key + 3 1/2 @ -155) as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -123 Miami Dolphins Pick Title: 9 Star NFL Shocker Of The Week (WIN) Regardless of where this line winds up, this is a shocker to us since the team we're taking is averaging just 8 PPG! However, there's sound reasoning behind the pick that actually gives us an advantage. It's clear that the Dolphins are clearly struggling away from home. However, playing their 1st true home game since Week 2 of the pre-season does have its merits. The biggest factor heading into this one points to QB Marcus Mariota injuring his hamstring last week. This is NOT the type of injury that just goes away quickly. What did we see after his exit @ Houston. Enter backup QB Matt Cassel who passed 10 times for 21 yards while throwing 2 INT's & no TD's. Look for Miami's new DC Matt Burke (last year's LB coach whose taking over with Vance Joseph departing for a HC'ing job in Denver) to employ those same pressures in their home opener that Joseph successfully installed last season. Look for the Dolphins' defense to record their 1st INT & keep the Tennessee QB (whether a hurting Mariota or Cassel) @ bay. I feel this is RB Jay Ajayi's breakout week whose rushed for 3.6 YPC thus far. Expect QB Jay Cutler to connect with WR Devante Parker (230 receiving yards) more frequently as this hookup has looked better every week. There's no excuse NOT to take meaningful blueprints from the Houston thrashing (57-14) & use it to their advantage by Miami OC Clyde Christensen against a Tennessee "D" giving up 31.5 PPG. Let's travel down to join the eager fans @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play the MIAMI DOLPHINS as my 9 Star Shocker Of The Week! Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -275 Philadelphia Eagles Pick Title: 9 Star Sitting Duck Play (WIN) All I see in this one is Arizona's immobile & aging QB Carson Palmer (28th out of 32 in QBR) laying on his back most of the time. In last week 18-15 OT win @ home versus San Francisco, Palmer was a sitting duck as he was sacked 6 times & was hit 16 times! He's been hit the most of ANY QB this year as he's been sacked 17 times & hit 43. Yes, HC Bruce Arians will test rookie CB Rasul Douglas. However, the Cardinals shouldn't be too much of a ground threat with their leading rusher RB Chris Johnson accumulating 93 rushing yards on the season. In addition, they have lineman Alex Boone dealing with a pectoral injury AND have put OLG Mike Iupati on injured reserve. There's NO REASON for Eagles' DC Jim Schwartz NOT to dial up effective pressure with an aggressive 4-3 alignment to hurry Palmer into some INT's & fumbles. Even though Philly's pass defense have given up their share of yards in the 1st month, they weren't facing an offense without their X-Factor- namely Mr. Everything RB David Johnson (may return in December). How valuable is he? Since he went down, Arians' crew has only scored 16, 17 & 18 points. This certainly sounds like they'll be playing catch-up in the second half with a one-dimensional offense. Remember, this Philadelphia team has won their last 3 regular season homers & dismantled Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Atlanta & Dallas last year with QB Carson Wentz & a healthy front line. Today, Wentz gets to throw against a 3-4 defense that had to replace 5 starters who were lost to free agency. On top of that, the Cardinals just loss their BEST pass rusher in WLB Markus Golden who led them in sacks last season with 12 1/2. Emerging from the backfield for the Eagles of late is LeGarrette Blount whose rushed for 136 yards last week & is averaging 5.9 YPR this season. My bottom line says it's going to be tough winning games when you a have an offense that's only converted 4 of 15 red-zone attempts. On the flip side of that coin, Philadelphia has converted crucial 3rd downs this season @ a high 50.8% (in contrast, Tom Brady converts 44.4% & Palmer just 39%). Coming into today, the Eagles have limited opponents possession time to their advantage to post a staggering 11 extra minutes per game. They also are rushing about 2 yards more an attempt than Arizona & have thrown for close to 2 yards more per pass attempt. This game could get ugly but maybe NOT until the 2nd half when the Cardinals' "D" slows down. Fellas, there's no excuse NOT to go to Lincoln Financial Field to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES SU as my 9 Star Sitting Duck Play! NOTES: It looks like Dallas HC Jason Garrett fell for the "cat & mouse" antics of his adversary Mike McCarthy of conceding a score late to give his QB Aaron Rodgers enough time to maneuver. The Cowboys (after dominating early) gave Green Bay excuses to stick around with 3 TO's including a Pick-6 thrown in a ill-advised area in the 2nd half. Dallas controlled the stats but fell victim to deja' vu 1 more time to a team that's ruled them the past decade. It was nice to see our buy points work to perfection as we took the Niners buying to + 3 1/2 against a poor defensive team like the Colts. Nevertheless, we'll take the "W" home after SF loses by 3 in OT. Our best bet cruised as we predicted then saw the Eagles dominate a depleted Cardinals' squad. This week (#6) has a few games with inflated lines so we'll chose wisely to play @ the right numbers once again. We're starting to get that championship feeling again as momentum builds from winning 9 of our last 11 NFL plays. Mike's 2017-18 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 16-10-----62%
 


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