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Mike Handzelek's Week 5 CFB Analysis & review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 4, 2017
   
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Saturday, September 30, 2017 Rice vs. Pittsburgh (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 20.0/-110 Rice Pick Title: 9 Star CFB Line Mover (Loss) On the surface, it looks like the Panthers (who are an OT away from a 0-4 start) are off to another patented romp over an also-ran. Since Rice failed earlier as double-digit dogs versus Stanford & Houston, the over-reaction says it happens again. I don't think you can mention Pitt in the same offensive breath as those teams. When the Panthers were up against this type of competition, they struggled & barely won in OT 28-21 over Youngstown State @ this venue. What's so special about these Owls? I feel HC David Bailiff & DC Brian Stewart (formerly Nebraska's secondary coach) have had enough time to work with their new 3-4 defensive scheme spear-headed by their top tackler (118 last year) ILB Emmanuel Ellerbe. Ellerbe is 1 of 8 returning defensive starters back this season. My bottom line says OC Billy Lynch should be smart enough to put some points on the board against a Pitt defense that's ranked 114th in the nation. Let's go to the home of the Steelers as in Heinz Field to play the RICE OWLS buying to our number of (+ 21 1/2 -160) as our 9 Star CFB Line Mover! South Florida vs. East Carolina (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 21.5/-110 East Carolina Pick Title: Mike's 8 Star Public Missed Perception Play (Loss) There's no doubt about that South Florida's QB Quinton Flowers is the best man on the field. However, in the last 3 meetings versus these Pirates, the final margin of victories by USF landed on 16, 5 & 11 with East Carolina winning 3 years back. Despite a solid 11-2 Bulls' squad last year, (beat South Carolina 46-39 in OT in the Birmingham Bowl) the Pirates still kept the margin of victory to 2 scores or less. This year, 2nd-year HC Scottie Montgomery has his team off to a slow 1-3 start with all losses by 20 or more. However, I feel ECU always saves their "A" game for these Bulls. My bottom line says that South Florida has given up numbers to like or lesser opponents earlier in the year when they fell short ATS (-21 1/2) to San Jose State 42-22 & at (-35 1/2) when they failed to cover to Stony Brook 31-17. Montgomery fared pretty well last season @ home going 3-3. Look for that same intensity here as they put up enough points to slide under the number. Let's go to Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville to play the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES as my 8 Star Public Missed Perception Play! New Mexico State vs. Arkansas (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 17.0/-108 New Mexico State Pick Title: 9 Star Ugly Pig/Under The Radar Play (Loss) Don't look now but the boys from Las Cruches, the New Mexico State Aggies (they have the longest bowl drought in the FBS -56 years since they went to the post-season-beating Utah State 20-13 in the 60' Sun Bowl) are a perfect 4-0 ATS. They've been in EVERY game (2-2 SU) including coming up short @ Arizona State 37-31 as 24-point dogs AND versus Troy 27-24 as 8 1/2-point dogs. One of the main reasons for their ATS success is having a strong defensive nucleus back (9 starters) under the direction of DC Frank Spaziani (was HC @ Boston college for 4 years). He's had early success using a 4-3 defensive scheme that's limited opponents to 26.5 PPG. On the flip side we have HC Bret Bielema & his Hogs. The Razorbacks only return 6 starters on both sides of the ball & have struggled against non-Power 5 conference opponents early (edged Louisiana Tech 21-20 early last season @ home when installed as 24 1/2-point favorites). With Arkansas coming off an OT loss (50-43 versus Texas A&M) AND having 2 back-to-back SEC road trips to South Carolina & Alabama immediately on deck, I don't think their full focus will be on this game. Let's go to Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville to play the NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES (buying to + 17 1/2 @ -128) as my 9 Star Ugly Pig/Under The Radar Play! Baylor vs. Kansas State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 16.0/-106 Baylor Pick Title: 9 Star Number-Slider Play (WIN) I like the fact that Baylor & ex-Temple HC Matt Rhule is getting over 2 TD's against a Kansas State team that struggled last time out when they were limited to a TD in a 14-7 loss to Vanderbilt. KSU struggled after putting up 55 points in back-to-back weeks versus patsies Central Arkansas & Charlotte. Even though the Bears experience early growing pains in earlier losses to Liberty, Texas San-Antonio (UTSA) & Duke, they woke up quickly last week when they put up 41 against Oklahoma. I'm expecting their offense to stay on track & slide under our set number here. My bottom line says we'll certainly question the motivation & focus here by the Wildcats since they have 3 consecutive games on deck versus difficult opponents in Texas, T.C.U. & Oklahoma. Let's jaunt to Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan to eagerly play the BAYLOR BEARS (buying to + 17 1/2 @ 156) as my 9 Star Number Slider Play! NOTES: We'll be switching to a new system this week that will be geared to a better mix of dogs/favorites. After early dogs dominating the board, it's now flipping the other way as we move closer to mid-season. We had East Carolina who out-passed South Florida 306-185 but lost the cover in the final stanza with turnovers & getting shutout 17-0. It was the same story with New Mexico State who also out-passed Arkansas 344-264 but turned it over too much as we lost by a 1/2-point despite being @ 17 1/2? Look for our colleges to trend upward since team forms are clearer defined with key QB's going down. Let's get'em this weekend! 2017-18 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 9-12-----43% ?
 


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