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Mike Handzelek's Week 3 CFB Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 16, 2018
   
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Saturday, September 15, 2018 Duke vs. Baylor (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-115 Duke Rating: 7* Mike's 3rd Live Dog Of The Week Win Guys, let's not under-estimate HC David Cutcliffe (came over from Ole Miss) has done since coming to Durham 11 years ago. He's responsible for getting Duke out of that ACC doormat status for sure as they've had a winning season 4 out of the past 5 years. For those with short memories, these same Blue Devils went out to South Bend just 2 seasons ago. This contest represents just the 3rd meeting with the Dukies winning the prior 2 last season & in 1958. Even though starting QB Daniel Jones (broken collarbone) is injured, I believe Quentin Harris can get the job done versus the Bears who are notorious for allowing a ton of points to middle echelon teams. HC Matt Ruhle is 2-0 (double his wins from last year's 1-11 campaign) & has brought down his DC from Temple in Phil Snow. Even though Baylor's 4-3 scheme has looked good thus far, they won't be playing Abilene Christian or UTSA this week. Remember, Bears' starting QB Charlie Brewer struggled in the opener against a SUPER patsy. In the numbers point out that there's been more than some success in Baylor contest when taking the underdog whose covered in 17 out of the last 25 for 68%. My bottom line zeroes in on how the Green N' Gold respond as a favorite. In their last 8 tries, they've been BIG money-burners @ 2-6. My 3rd Live Dog Of The Week travels to Waco to play the DUKE BLUE DEVILS! Rutgers vs. Kansas (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: 120 Rutgers Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird ML Dog Paybacker Loss Former Ohio State assistant & now Rutgers' HC Chris Ash is coming off another pasting by his former club to the tune of 52-3. It's also safe to say the Scarlet Knights have been outscored 271-27 versus the Buckeyes ever since they hopped over to the Big 10. For this contest, the mushes are all OVER Kansas after they rocked Central Michigan 31-7 in Mount Pleasant last week (breaking 46-game SU losing streak on the road). I strongly believe these same Jayhawks will be spending too much time celebrating this week instead of focusing on Rutgers. Remember, this is the same team that was out-gained by FCS opponent Nicholls State 2 weeks ago. Kansas is now put in that unfamiliar role of the favorite of which they're not accustomed. HC David Beaty (a Kansas ex-WR coach) & his troops came into this season with a 3-33 SU record over his first 3 seasons. Even though the Jayhawks return a good nucleus, the fact remains they 3-15 SU & 4-14 ATS off a win. It gets even tighter coming off a non-conference win where thy currently sit 1-12 ATS coming into today. My bottom line is this. Kansas won't be getting a +6 turnover advantage this week versus a Rutgers team that carries 6 QB's on its roster. HC Ash should have a decent backup to replace Art Sitkowski if he's a no-go. Let's make tracks to Memorial Stadium in Lawrence to play the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS as my CFB Earlybird ML Dog Paybacker! LSU vs. Auburn (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 10.5/-102 LSU Rating: 7* Mike's Mid-Afternoon SEC Showdowner Win It's no secret that these 2 have built a serious rivalry over the past decades. But let's roll the tape back 2 years ago when the Tigers last visited Jordan-Hare. It was L.S.U. ball with supposedly time left for 1 play. The result seemed to show a 15-yard TD pass giving the Tigers a 19-18 victory. Wait, hold the phone. After officials replayed the tape, they reversed the call & said that time had technically expired before the snap & awarded Auburn an 18-13 win. Don't think HC Ed Orgeron (in his 3rd season as Bayou Bengals skipper) won't be over-emphasizing this enough to the troops who felt that was a "W". What I really like about this one is the Purple & Gold ground game. Leonard Fournette may be gone to the the Jaguars, but Nick Brossette is in & averaging 133 YPG rushing for a L.S.U. offense without a turnover this season. In the numbers tell us that Week 3 of the season for Auburn has produced 7 straight pointspread losses heading into this one. My bottom line says DC Dave Aranda's (previously a DC @ Wisconsin) 3-4 defensive scheme has enough playmakers in its secondary to make some noise here. As long as QB Joe Burrow stays consistent, we'll be in business. Let's go to Auburn's Jordan-Hare Stadium to play the L.S.U. TIGERS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my MID-AFTERNOON SEC SHOWDOWNER! Missouri vs. Purdue (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-110 Purdue Rating: 7* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play Win Mike's lone Saturday night CFB play moves to Big 10 county & takes into account the improvement of the Boilermakers under HC Jeff Brohm. Yes, they've started slow @ 0-2 SU & ATS. However, this was a 3-9 SU team in 16' that Brohm turned into a winning 7-6 after beating Arizona 38-35 in the Foster Farms Bowl! That represented the 1st winning football season on campus since 2011. On the flip side of that coin is Missouri's Barry Odom. Odom (3rd season) is a collective 13-14 SU heading into this but did beat a few cream puffs @ home with wins over UT Martin & Wyoming to start the season. For those who missed last season's contest in Columbia between these 2, that game wound up a lopsided 35-3 Purdue win (only the 2nd meeting since the 1980 Liberty Bowl. From that team, the Boilers return 9 starters back for OC's JaMarcus Shepherd & Brian Brohm (Jeff's brother). My question here is how do the oddsmakers justify a Pick'em earlier line to one of Missouri almost a 7-point favorite on the road? My bottom line points out that Purdue may have started 0-2 SU, but their numbers show they've out-gained both opponents. Even though QB Drew Lock has looked good with 74% completions versus the patsies, he was a TO machine in last year's meeting. In the numbers show that these same Tigers are 3-11 SU in their last 14 roadies (1st this year) & are a nose-diving 3-9 ATS versus the Big Ten IF installed as favorites of 4 or more. If we eliminate the 1st 2 games of the season, Missouri drops to a perfect 0-6 ATS versus the Big 10 for Game 3 of the season or later @ -4 or more. The results re in so we're heading to West Lafayette's Ross-Ade Stadium to play the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play! Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 3 Record: 3-1 for 75% Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Season Overall Record: 6-3 for 67%
 

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