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Mike Handzelek's Week 12 CFB Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 19, 2018
   
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Saturday, November 17, 2018 Syracuse vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - 2:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 10.5/-110 Syracuse Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) Third-ranked Notre Dame (10-0 SU) is pulling out ALL the stops to try & steal some of the Syracuse fan base from the New York/New Jersey area. They went as far as donning pinstripe pants & throwing some pinstripes on their helmet inside the ND logo. Let's not lose focus on the game @ hand fellas. The people the Fighting Irish SHOULD impress are the College Football Playoff committee. They'll decide ND's fate in the end after their battles with Syracuse & U.S.C. to close out the regular season. It looks like QB Ian Book will be re-inserted back in the lineup @ QB. Will he be 100% right of way or have to shake off rust? The Orange defense of DC Brian Ward has improved this season. His 4-3 defensive scheme will key on RB Dexter Williams (770 rushing yards & 10 TD's) & thus force ND's hand to throw into his Tampa-2. It'll be feast or famine depending if Syracuse can apply enough pressure on Book. If Book can't get into a rhythm, expect HC Brian Kelly to insert more of Brandon Wimbush. The same applies for HC Dino Babers if dual-threat QB Eric Dungey doesn't keep pace with the Irish. Tommy DeVito is more than capable of picking up the slack. The (8-2 SU) Orange won't be intimidated by the big stage since they already went toe-to-toe with #2 Clemson @ Death Valley (25-point favorites) & got nipped in the end 27-23. Remember, the 12th-ranked Cuse' is just 2 late plays (lost to Pitt in OT & Clemson) from being 10-0 SU. My bottom line says this Syracuse offense is the toughest ND will face in the regular season. Their up-tempo style (which ND has not faced yet this season) can leave the Irish gassed toward the end if the Orange can hang close. Numbers support us as well as Babers' bunch is 9-2 ATS their last 11 tries as an underdog. More recently, they're 3-0 ATS as pups this season & have covered by an average of 20 PPG. Last season they lost by just 9 @ L.S.U.. O'k, I'm ready! Let's grab the gusto as we trek to historical Yankee Stadium in the Bronx to play the SYRACUSE ORANGE (buying to + 11 1/2) as my CFB Earlybird Dependable! Virginia vs. Georgia Tech (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -205 Georgia Tech Rating: 8* Mike's Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) The Wahoos of Virginia look tough under HC Bronco Mendenhall (15-20 SU @ Virginia) going 7-3 SU to this point. However, the BULK of those wins were @ Scott Stadium where they've accumulated a strong 6-1 SU record. The road has been a different story where they're 1-2 SU with losses to Indiana & North Carolina State. For this matchup, I love the revenge factor. The Cavaliers edged the Yellow Jackets 40-36 last season @ Scott Stadium in Charlottsville. DON'T look for a repeat performance here! HC Paul Johnson's (in his 11th season 2 GT) triple-option attack will eventually wear the Wahoos down. Virginia last faced a like opponent to end last season in the Military Bowl. They lost badly to Navy 42-7 even with weeks to prepare. Other numbers hard to ignore are the Cavaliers 1-5 ATS record as conference dogs of less than 7 AND their 2-5 ATS record in their 1st of back-to-back road games. My bottom line says this is a clearly a homer call as the last 8 games of this series has been covered by the host. Because of VA failing badly versus Navy, I'm not holding too much weight on Mendenhall being familiar with the triple-option when up against Air Force when he coached @ B.Y.U.. By the way, the total yardage stats from last week's 45-24 win over Liberty were Virginia 389, Liberty 354. Enough said. Let's go to Atlanta's Bobby Dodd Stadium to play the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS as my Mike's Public Missed Perception Play! Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -205 Pittsburgh Rating: 7* Mike's Saturday Chalk Talker (WIN) The Panthers have some serious momentum built in being winners of their last 3. Since a narrow 19-14 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend, they've rushed for 1,230 yards in those games following. In the past 4, Pitt has turned it over just once compared to their 4 takeaways. DC Randy Bates has his 4-3 scheme peaking @ the right time. Their last 2 roadies, they've allowed a stingy 16 PPG versus Virginia @ Notre Dame. TB Qadree Ollison is coming up with a head of steam rushing for 235 yards (team total was 654 total yards of offense) versus DC Bud Foster's Virginia Tech entry last week. My bottom line says in Pat Narduzzi we trust who has his Panthers in 1st position in the ACC Coastal Division (5-1 SU with a 1-game lead over Virginia). They'll play Clemson for the ACC title IF they take care of business today. Even if they lose next week @ Miami (Fla.), they hold the tie-breaker over the Wahoos. The Wake Forest "D" not only struggles against excellent rushing teams but on home turf they've given up a matador-like 46 PPG the past 4. The only home wins they've mustered this season were against Towson State & 1-10 SU Rice. I'm eager & ready to fly down to Winston-Salem's BB&T Field to play the PITT PANTHERS as my Saturday Chalk Talker! Michigan State vs. Nebraska (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -104 Nebraska Rating: 7* Mike's Saturday Momentum Grabber (WIN) There's not many showing 3-7 SU much love these days. After an 0-6 SU start, they've now rattled off 3 wins the past 4 games with their lone blemish being a 36-31 loss @ Ohio State (they rang up 430 total yards against the Buckeyes' defense). I love this matchup since the Michigan State "D" struggled against a hurry-up tempo earlier @ home versus Utah State who rang up 31 points on them. As HC Scott Frost took some time to get acclimated @ his new venue (coached the past 2 seasons @ Central Florida), look @ what he's done with is offense LATELY. Similar to his numbers @ UCF, Frost & his troops are averaging 47 PPG over the past 4. My bottom line says Spartans' QB Brian Lewerke looks like his throwing arm is bothering him more than he's led coaches to believe. There's a chance that green freshman QB Rocky Lombardi may see action which should play into the Huskers' hand. Let's go to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln to play the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as my Saturday Momentum Grabber! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 21-10 for 68%
 

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