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Mike Handzelek's Week 10 NFL Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 13, 2019
   
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Monday, November 11, 2019 Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -260 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Strongest Play On The Board (LOSS) This would definitely be a Seattle spot IF & only IF they had a defense that resembled what they've put out over the past decade or so. Even though they sit 7-2 SU & 1 1/2 games behind the 49ers (8-0 SU for the 2nd time in franchise history), their defense ranked 25th overall & 28th versus the pass take on QB Jimmy Garoppolo (70.8% completions, 13/7 TD/INT ratio, sacked 12 times & good for a 100.6 QBR) who runs an offense ranked 2nd on the ground featuring speedster RB Matt Breida (524 rushing yards & 103 receiving yards) & have newly-acquired WR Emmanuel Sanders whose already paying dividends with 11 receptions for 137 yards & 2 TD's. On the flip side, possible MVP QB Russell Wilson (22/1 TD/INT ratio) is hot but now has to face a defense that hasn't allowed over 205 passing yards to any opponent. I'm not trusting HC Pete Carroll & Co. against a diversified offense (scoring 35.3 PPG @ home) of HC Kyle Shanahan since they've previously failed @ home against 2 similar offense like New Orleans (33-27) & Baltimore (30-16). Without getting gifts from Baker Mayfield, they clearly lost in Cleveland to a now 2-6 SU team. My bottom line says the extra prep time (played last Thursday) for San Francisco combined with facing a road team off an OT game should give them lasting power in the end. Look for SF CB Richard Sherman to share his expertise on every Russell Wilson tendency with his defense. We're ready to go to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for the "W" as my NFL Strongest Play On The Board! Sunday, November 10, 2019 New York Giants vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-115 New York Jets Rating: 8* Mike's 8* Ugly Pig Game Of The Weak (WIN) It seems like 1-7 SU Gang Green has turned in the towel for the season. Let's not forget that famous phrase uttered by Lee Corso, "Not so fast my friend!" Yes, the 2-7 SU Giants seem to have less flaws. However, they also have a 24th-ranked offense that have a RB in Saquon Barkley that isn't fully recovered from injury AND have a defense that's in the bottom echelon (ranked 27th) of the league. In this battle of the weak, Big Blue hasn't fared well prior to their bye week going 4-8-1 ATS. They've also given up at least 27 or more points in each game with the exception of an early 24-3 blowout win versus Washington. My bottom line says you can't trust a young QB in Daniel Jones that's thrown 8 salvos for an INT, lost 8 fumbles & was sacked 26 times in his 7 career starts. It's also tough to lay the points IF HC Pat Shurmur & Co. don't have WR's Sterling Shepard & Evan Engram. Even though ghost-seeing QB Sam Darnold has just as many flaws, the Jets have some merit being a not-too-shabby 6th versus the run. There's also a situational edge as the Green & White get the Giants off a Monday-Nighter & divisional battle with Dallas. From an entertainment standpoint, the biggest story @ Met Life might be that missing black cat still lurking in the shadows. With so many holes sitting on both sides of their rosters, I feel there's tremendous value in this situation. Let's go to Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford (home to both teams) to play the NEW YORK JETS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-110 Tennessee Titans Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Yes, KC QB Pat Mahomes (off a dislocated kneecap) is back behind center for HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid! However, has anyone brought up how the Chiefs fared their last non-divisional roadie? They dodged a BIG bullet as the Lions appeared to win in the end only to have a TD pass call reversed in the end zone as they escaped 34-30. Part of the reason Kansas City is 6-3 SU is the fact they can't stop the run ranking @ 29th out of 32. That's been the sole reason for KC losing the possession time battle (-4 minutes, 14 seconds per game) & getting out-rushed 1,256 to 811 on the season. On the flip side, the Titans have definitely rose to the occasion for backup QB Ryan Tannehill who has completed close to 725 of his passes turning in a 6/4 TD/INT ratio & good for a high 99.7 QBR. My bottom line says Tennessee still has an opportunistic defense (CB Logan Ryan & S Kevin Byard-3 INT's each) turning in a total of 9 INT's (+5 team turnover ratio) & have a very good 3rd-down conversion yield rate of 33.6%. The Chiefs ALSO have a BIG divisional game brewing as they play next Monday night versus the L.A. Chargers played @ the high altitude of 7,200 (about 2,000 feet higher than Denver) feet inside Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Remember, it's been less than 2 years since these 2 met in an AFC Wild Card game that saw the Titans (+8) storm back from a 21-3 deficit for a 22-21 win @ Arrowhead. Last week, Tennessee proved they can move the ball against a tough "D" out-gaining Carolina on the road (431 to 370). Let's go to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the home-standing TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to + 8 1/2) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) What did we learn last week that's been ALMOST status quo for Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston? Well, he can go 29-for-44, throw for 335 yards with 2 TD's, put up 34 points & still lose the game by a TD! Why? He throws too many INT's (12 this season) & his team has scoring & passing defenses ranked 31st (just ahead of the Dolphins only). There's a clear situational edge for the Cards as they come in off extra rest (played San Francisco last Thursday) & play a Buccaneers' squad off an OT game. Even though both teams can't protect their QB (59 sacks combined), Arizona has a three-headed monster with their mobile QB in Kyler Murray (5.6 YPR) being complimented by the just-returned RB David Johnson (3.9 YPR) & the newly-acquired RB Kenyon Drake (110 yards rushing & an excellent 7.3 YPR). My bottom line points directly @ Murray. He proved last week he can play with the best turning in an out-of-this-world 130.7 passer rating versus a 49ers' defense that's ranked #1 in total defense & versus the pass. In the numbers teach us that the Cardinals area perfect 4-0 ATS versus losing teams & take on a Tampa Bay team that's 0-fer SU @ this venue this season. I'll gladly side with the Air-Raid offense ran by new HC Kliff Kingsbury that's been under-valued by the oddsmakers going 6-3 ATS. Let's make some noise as we go to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa to play the ARIZONA CARDINALS (buying to +6) as my NFL Earlybird Dependable! Los Angeles Rams vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -210 Los Angeles Rams Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star Inter-Conference Game Of The Week (LOSS) Is there an excuse for HC Sean McVay NOT to take advantage of a young QB like Mason Rudolph with 2 weeks of prep time? The Steelers sit @ 4-4 SU but the mushes (who are all over Pittsburgh) fail to admit what would have happened IF QB Jacoby Brissett didn't go down with a freak injury (the Colts moved the ball with him), ice-cold QB Brian Hoyer didn't throw a pick 6 with a 96-yard return by S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Indy was about to go up 17-3) AND HOF K Adam Vinatieri didn't miss a PAT & a straight-on FG @ the wire. Yes, Pittsburgh has shown they're an opportunistic defense (19 takeways-4 more than all of last season). But the L.A. Rams defense has stopped tougher QB's than Mason Rudolph as DC Wade Phillips (in his 42nd year of coaching) held New England's Tom Brady to 13 points in the last Super Bowl with this same 2 weeks prep. Unlike that game, RB Todd Gurley should be more than ready to go & take pressure off QB Jared Goff by turning in a big game out of the backfield. Without injured RB James Connor, the Steelers will have trouble if Los Angeles (5-3 SU) loads the box & make them one-dimensional. My bottom line says the Rams are a proven commodity covering 6 in a row on the road. We're not asking for the cover but the SU win here. Why? Because Pittsburgh has NOT beaten the NFC West (0-2 SU) this season AND have a game with their hated rival the Cleveland Browns immediately & quickly on deck Thursday night on the road. I'm ready to go to Heinz Field in western Pennsylvania to play the LOS ANGELES RAMS for the "W" as my 8 Star Inter-Conference Game Of The Week! NOTES: There's many things we've learned from the results in the NFL for Week 10. It certainly looks like the brilliant offensive play-calling of Rams' HC Sean McVay has taken a few BIG steps backward since he guided L.A. to an 11- 6 record (NFC West Title) in 17' AND a 15-4 record last season as a Super Bowl runner-up. It was evident in Pittsburgh than the stellar performance by DC Phillips' "D" (yielded 10 points) is being wasted by the ineptitude of a once-powerful offense that can only muster 3 points. The L.A. offense looked like they were just as predictable as the blueprints they laid versus New England in the Super Bowl. The only other game (out of 5) where we tasted misfortune was a bitter 27-24 OT loss with San Francisco. Unfortunately, the injury bug hit the 49ers @ the worst time as OT Joe Staley was out with a broken finger, Center Weston Richburg left with a left hand injury, WR Emmanuel Sanders injured his ribs, key RB Matt Breida had an ankle sprain, veteran K Robbie Gould couldn't go with a quadriceps injury & the field general of their defense in LB Kwon Alexander had a torn pectoral muscle. SF hopes to have these stalwarts ready to go for their repeater @ Seattle in Week 17. The rest of the slate was spot on as the Jets & Cardinals covered with the points & the Titans won for us outright over KC. This is the time of season where the mushes have difficulty so stay right here as the percentages rise for another Hollywood-type finish! Mike Handzelek's 2019 NFL Week 10 Record: 3-2 for 60% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 21-14 for 60%
 


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