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Mike Handzelek's Week 10 CFB Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 8, 2017
   
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Saturday, November 04, 2017 Syracuse vs. Florida State (NCAAF) - 12:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-116 Syracuse Pick Title: 9 Star (Earlybird) ACC Up & Coming Prime-Timer (WIN) There's NO EXCUSE for HC Dino Babers to come up short in Tallahassee. They've had extra rest, have a capable QB with experience & have shown they can beat the best (Clemson). There's too much film out there on how to exploit Florida State already. Boston College proved it last weekend. A travel date with Clemson on deck remains a distraction for the Seminoles. It doesn't matter next week or this week. Let's gladly go to Doak Campbell Stadium to play the SYRACUSE ORANGE (buy to + 7 1/2 @ -136) as my 9 Star (Earlybird) ACC Up & Coming Prime-Timer! Florida vs. Missouri (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -118 Missouri Pick Title: 8 Star SEC Bottoms Up Play (WIN) Both of these teams fell off the charts of late with Florida a dismal 4-3 which was bad enough to get Jim McElwain fired. The Gators are averaging slightly over 13 PPG their last 3 while the Tigers' offense woke up their past 4 averaging over 45 PPG. It will be a tough uphill climb for Florida whose in re-adjusting phase. 3-5 Missouri has a dependable QB in Drew Lock who comes in with a ton of momentum throwing for 883 yards his past 2. I'm not sure if newly-inserted QB Malik Zaire is the answer for the Gators as he'll be on the road for his 1st start. Revenge from last season's 40-14 embarrassment is an excellent motivator here. Let's go to Memorial Stadium in Columbia to play the MISSOURI TIGERS as my 8 Star SEC Bottoms Up Play! Army vs. Air Force (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -230 Air Force Pick Title: 9 STAR Headliner Moneyliner (LOSS) These 2 teams have a rich history since Air Force was part of Army until they separated in 1947. What's transpired in this series since then? Well, for starters Air Force has won 10 of the last 11 SU & are 18-2 SU & 15-4-1 ATS over the longer haul. We still give the Cadets some do since they come in @ 6-2 & off of a bye week. But after further examination, we find Army to have an unbelievably soft schedule thus far with Fordham, UTEP & Rice mixed in. We'll side with a Falcons' squad that's running hot to say the least. They've accumulated 1,337 rushing yards their past 3 games. That's a pretty BIG head of steam for the Cadets to neutralize on the road. Let's make way to Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs to play the AIR FORCE FALCONS as my 9 Star Headliner Moneyliner! South Carolina vs. Georgia (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 24.0/-110 South Carolina Pick Title: 9 Star SEC Road Strong Contender (WIN) The Gamecocks are simply over-achievers! They proved it last year & again this season under 2nd-year HC Will Muschamp. They're currently 6-2 SU & have NOT lost to anyone by over a TD. They've won 3 games on the road (North Carolina State, Missouri & Texas A&M). What's to their credit? Let's zero right in on an improving each week QB in Jake Bentley who passed for 1,759 yards thus far. He went through the whole month of October WITHOUT an interception. The key for South Carolina is to load the box & force QB Jake Fromm to beat them through the air. Remember, he's only had 2 games of 8 in which he passed for over 200 yards. That's certainly going to get some play on the Gamecocks chalk board today. This game's number is just out of whack! South Carolina has been beaten ONCE by more than 3 TD's going back to the middle of the 2015 season. HC Kirby Smart's charges have 4 good running backs (Chubb, Michele, Swift & Holyfield) but also have a MUST WIN game on deck @ tough Auburn. We'll gladly go to Sanford Stadium in Athens to take the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (buying to + 24 1/2 @ -130) as my 9 Star SEC Road Strong Contender! Virginia Tech vs. Miami Florida (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-106 Virginia Tech Pick Title: 9 Star ACC Showdown Play (LOSS) Here's one of the most intriguing games on the card for this weekend. We have an undefeated 7-0 Miami team under 2nd-year HC Mark Richt (16-4 here) taking on a stingy 7-1 Virginia Tech squad also under a 2nd-year HC in Justin Fuente (17-5 since taking over). For this matchup, the mushes on Miami are severely under-estimating the loss of RB Mark Walton. He was a KEY COG to their success thus far & it has CLEARLY showed over the past 2 games. Their past 2 games they've played un-ranked Syracuse & doormat North Carolina. In those games, they've been out-rushed by a wide margin, 440 to 195! What's going to happen when DC & defensive guru Bud Foster (in his 23rd-year) installs some new wrinkles in his 4-3 alignment to take the Hurricanes OUT of their game plan? Yes, Miami can ride some early adrenalin. However, when the dust clears we'll find the Gobblers in it to win it. Don't be fooled! The Hurricanes have that Catholics versus Convicts matchup with current Final Four playoff contender Notre Dame already preoccupying their heads. Let's jaunt to Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Gables to play the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (buying to a key + 4 1/2 @ -166) as my 9 Star ACC Showdown Play! Texas vs. TCU (NCAAF) - 7:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-110 Texas Pick Title: 9 star too Much Respect Given Play (LOSS) Don't think that the pysche' of T.C.U. wasn't CRUSHED last week in their 14-7 home loss to Iowa State. That's a hard one to spring back from in my book! Enter in HC Tom Herman & his 4-4 Hook'em Horns. Herman (1st year here since guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his 2 years there) is a COVERING MACHINE @ Texas & hasn't missed a cover since opening week when Maryland shocked the Longhorns 51-41. Since then, Texas almost upset U.S.C. losing 27-24, beat a good Iowa State team 17-7 on the road, went wire-to-wire @ Oklahoma before losing 29-24 & were recently edged by an excellent Oklahoma State squad 13-10. DC Todd Orlando & his "D" (10 starters back this season) is getting BETTER by the week giving up a stingy 16+ PPG their past 3. I look for the same slow-tempo type game here. This Longhorns' offense is also improving having turned the ball over just 3 times their past 4 games. Texas has become opportunistic as well with a strong +6 turnover ratio in those 4. With a huge game @ Oklahoma next week for the Horned Frogs, we'll take the highway to Forth Worth's Amon G. Carter Stadium to confidently play the TEXAS LONGHORNS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -130) as my 9 Star Too Much Respect Given Play! Mississippi vs. Kentucky (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -170 Kentucky Pick Title: 9 Star Mid-Afternoon SEC Chalk Play (LOSS) I'm a firm believer in HC Mark Stoops & what he's done of late @ Kentucky this season going a stellar 6-2 SU in arguably the toughest conference in the NCAA. I feel they should have a field day versus an Ole Miss "D" that's given up around 43 PPG in 5 SEC affairs. The situation is perfect for us getting a Rebels' squad off 3 consecutive home games as well as a last-second 38-37 loss to Arkansas (blew a 31-7 lead) last week. It's going to be super-tough to get a team motivated or getting them in "build upon" mode after last week. Ole Miss has their so-called "Bowl Game" waiting in a few weeks versus intra-state rival Mississippi State. Realistically, that's what they see & NOT a hungry homer like the Wildcats. Mississippi HC Hugh Freeze will probably get his walking papers @ the end of the season & playing with a backup QB here isn't helping the situation. Let's travel to Lexington's Commonwealth Stadium to play the KENTUCKY WILDCATS to get the "W" as my 9 Star Mid-Afternoon SEC Chalk Play! NOTES: It's been one of those years where too many games have been lost on the final play or in the final minute. These games should start going in the right direction as we draw closer to bowl season where we ruled last year. Fundamental handicapping mixed in with some teams ineligible for the post-season (but are playing the last game like one) being a definite focus. Week 11 is almost here as we may have our one & only CFB Regular Season Game Of The Year going. Stay tuned! 2017-18 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 26-26-------50%
 


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