Sunday, February 7, 2021 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 6:30 EST Pick: Pointspread: +3.5/-115 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rating: 5* (WON 8--LOST 2) Analysis: Ex-Temple & now Tampa Bay HC Bruce Arians said it best, "No risk it, no biscuit." That's the way he coaches & his team reflects it. Speaking of Arians, don't think he'll be short in sharing KC S Tyrann Matthieu's tendencies with Tom Brady for the past 2 weeks. Arians drafted Matthieu in the 3rd round in 2013 while HC'ing the Cardinals. The forecast for the SB should be temperatures in the mid 60's, slight chance of rain with winds about 5-10 MPH. Let's dive into this. I believe that the Chiefs offensive line will have problems versus DC Todd Bowles' 3-4 alignment. Why? Because they are now down 5 players (not 2 as most media says) on the O-Line that includes: 6'7" LT Eric Fisher, All-Pro RT Mitchell Schwartz, OG Kelechi Osemele & 2 opt-outs with OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif & their 6'7" rookie OT Lucas Niang. Expect Edge Rushers/OLB's Shaquil Barrett & Jason Pierre Paul to provide a more-constant pressure on Mahomes unlike that of Week 12 (a 27-24 loss to KC) when Bowles dialed-up pressure @ an over-cautious 17% of the time which failed in comparison to their 39% norm. Tampa Bay will ALSO have a big BOOST since their nucleus of the front line "monster" is now BACK in 347-pound NT Vita Vea (missed Week 12) alongside DE's Ndamukong Suh & 6'6" William Gholston. That "D" is ranked 4th in sacks that total 55 after 19 games. I ALSO expect TB QB Tom Brady to "have a day" against a Chiefs' "D that's ranked 16th (won't be playing Buffalo or Cleveland here) & 19th in sacks. Before we get into key analytics, my bottom line says the Buccaneers will control the trenches with the better O-Line, D-Line, LB'ers along with pressures & sacks. Add in a better running game to control the clock with home field & we got a solid underdog. Let's talk numbers! In the short lifetime of 4 Mahomes/Brady meetings, the dog has barked in all 4 ATS. Brady (6-3 SU & ATS as a playoff dog) ups his game big-time compared to pre-SB playoff games. His completion rate is 61.7 % compared to 65.3% in SB's. His passing yards significantly go up from 268.9 (pre-SB playoffs) to 315.3 yards for the SB. In the last 43 SB's, there's been 5 (5th seeds or lower) teams to make the SB. The past 3 all have won SU & ATS. Kansas City comes in with an 8-10 ATS. The only other teams to make the SB with a 2 or more games under .500 spread record (97' Packers & 79' Rams) both loss ATS. When a Wild Card team plays a team that had a playoff bye, the Wild Card team has gone 9-0-1 ATS/8-2 SU in the SB. Teams with a lower win percentage (Buccaneers) are 13-1 ATS/10-4 SU in the last 14 SB's. Those teams are 13-0 ATS if coming off a conference championship game win of 19 or less. Brady is 12-1-1 ATS when not favored @ home & a perfect 10-0 versus teams better than a .705 winning percentage. Mahomes' 3 of 4 SU losses on the road have come to QB's with SB experience. He's also a perfect 0-3 ATS on the road versus winning opposition who come off consecutive SU wins. Mahomes now faces a similar "D" on the road where he had struggled with in December @ New Orleans & Miami. Teams with the better defense have won 44 of 54 SB's. The team with the most total yards has gone 41-13 SU in SB's. Arians is a take-me-to-the-window 10-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less in all games he's coached the last 29 years. The Buccaneers are 6-0 versus offensive teams that average more or equal to 6 YPP (KC is @ 6 YPP). KC HC Andy Reid is a stunning 1-8 ATS in his NFL coaching career when coming off consecutive SU wins AND facing a foe who comes off consecutive SU/ATS wins. The Chiefs' "D" matured late last season to win the SB. This year's rendition has yielded 26.7 PPG over their last 10 games. Teams that rush for more yards are 40-14 SU & 37-14-3 ATS (a 72.5% cover average). Since Arians turned over the offensive reins to Brady, they've gone 7-0 SU. If there's precipitation, know that KC will be playing into Brady's hand as he's a perfect 6-0 SU with a 15/0 TD/INT ratio playing in those elements. The SU winner of the SB has also gone 45-6-3 ATS for an 88.2% cover possibility. Teams with more turnovers in the SB has gone a ticket-ripping 6-45 SU & 8-35-8 ATS. Let's go to Raymond James Stadium to play the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 5* Super Bowl Side. Here's the stronger plays of the night. 1) PLAY 9* on YES -190 that the team that scores last wins the game. (This won 7 straight & 20 of last 22) 2) PLAY 8* on UNDER 328.5 for Pat Mahomes passing yards. 3) PLAY 10* on "NO" the last play of the game will be a QB rush. (only 2 of last 9 were a kneel down) 4) PLAY 10* on Yes -150 Will game be tied after 0-0. (This won the last 4 & 5 of 6) 5) PLAY 10* on UNDER 765.5 total net yards for the game. (only 5 of the last 20 reached this number) 6) Play 8* on UNDER 30 1/2 points for KC's team total points. 7) Play 8* on there will be "NO" defensive TD's -230. 8) Play 10* on "NO" to Will The Winning Team Win Exactly by 10. (This is 19-0 last 19) 9) Play 10* on "NO" There won't be a safety in the game (6-0 last 6). POST-GAME NOTES: I'm pretty riled up since it's hard to believe that Tom Brady (Michigan) was the 199th pick, a compensatory pick of the New England Patriots in the 6th Round of the 2000 NFL Draft. QB's Chad Pennington (Jets), Giovanni Carmazzi (49ers), Chris Redman (Ravens), Tee Martin (Steelers), Marc Bulger (Saints) & Spergon Wynn (Browns) were all selected before him. Ok, let's CLEAR THE AIR! Why was Brady the 7th QB selected? Because BB treated him as a lightly-regarded prospect (ran a 5.28 in the 40) due to an unimpressive NFL Scouting Combine. I remember Pats' HC Bill Belichick actually put him as the #4 QB on their depth chart behind starter Drew Bledsoe (Washington State) & 2nd/3rd stringers John "Deep" Friesz (Idaho)/Michael Bishop (Kansas State). He worked his way up to 2nd string by the end of the season & finally got his chance next season when he took over the Patriots' job in Week 3 after Bledsoe (who thought brady was a career backup) was diagnosed with internal bleeding after a shot from Jets' LB Mo Lewis. The current story isn't how Bill Belichick started him for close to 19 years but how SB LV was CLEARLY about Brady executing payback to Belichick & the NE organization for being one of the lowest picks in the draft, initially being 4th string & letting him go to free agency. As for the game, my prediction of TB controlling the trenches with the better up-front pressure & LB's came to fruition. TB DC Todd Bowles used many coverages in bringing pressure more than in any other game this season. Kansas City lined up with a 5-man front nearly 90% of the time & refused to run the ball first to set up play action. We saw a little bit of it in the 3rd quarter but 17 rushes for 107 yards (6.3 YPR) compared to 49 pass attempts for the game tells the story. Chiefs' RB Clyde Edwards-Hilaire successfully rushing the ball just 9 times for 64 yards (7 YPR) baffles me. Like I said 2 weeks ago, NFL officials changed a bit from the regular season as way LESS PI penalties were called for hanging & holding. This definitely made the Tampa Bay "D" that more effective. HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid & OC Eric Bieniemy were definitely out-coached. You can't put all the pressure on Mahomes (6-0 SU in playoffs versus Non-Brady squads but 0-2 SU versus him) to make things work being down 5 offensive linemen. Even though there were a couple questionable calls on the KC defense, 11 penalties for 120 yards will kill any team. On the flip side, hats off to TB HC Bruce Arians knowing he had to hand the play-calling to Brady after Week12 (7-5 SU @ that point). What was the result? An 8-0 SU record & a Super Bowl trophy is not a bad compromise. Brady (with a 125.8 QB rating & a record 5th SB MVP & 7th ring) went a superb 21-for-29 & was good for 201 yards. His 21 career Super Bowl TD passes now almost doubles his nearest competitor (Joe Mantana-11). Rushing the ball effectively (33 rushes for 145 yards) let them control the clock with a near 3-minute advantage. Before the SB, I hinted that Tampa Bay is an UP & COMING sports city after the Rays" World Series runner-up finish & the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup. With the Buccaneers, they've ARRIVED! I feel as a handicapper a majority of what Brady feels as a player. You could sum it up as "CWIRP" that stands for Competitive spirit--Work ethics--Intelligence--Relentless pursuit--Pocket awareness. Both change & evolve MUST be a part of that plan. There's lots of film out there & NOT forming patterns with a diversified staff & players are key. Brady & TE sidekick Rob Gronkowski will be back. Both know that feeling your way around to start a season & catching fire @ the right time is a darn good formula. It will be interesting to see if Mahomes avoids Super Bowl loser hangover next season & gets his O-Line back (a determining factor in SB LV). It was another successful SB for me going 8-2 after a 5-1 last year. Thanks to all my subscribers, friends from Northwest & all followers who took a piece of that trophy with me this historic season. Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Regular Season Record: 32-12 for record 73% finished #1 Mike Handzelek's 2021 NFL Post-Season Record: 9-4 for 69% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Record: 41-16 for a record 72%
 

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