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Mike Handzelek's SB ATS Sharp Play/Winning Props/Late Steam Play


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Feb 5, 2020
   
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Sunday, February 02, 2020 San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-110 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 8* Mike's Super Bowl ATS Sharp Play With Winning Props Game-(LOSS) Props- (WIN) The winds of change blowing through the NFL for the past 18 weeks has swept away the boundaries separating the best from the rest. Surviving from the AFC is a Andy Reid-coached Kansas City team whose making their 1st Super Bowl appearance in 50 years when Hank Stram & his Chiefs (QB Len Dawson, RB's Mike Garrett & Warren McVea, WR Otis Taylor & K Jan Stenerud) out-muscled HC Bud Grant's Vikings (QB Joe Kapp, RB's Dave Osborn, Bill Brown & Oscar Reed, WR's John Henderson & Gene Washington, K Fred Cox) by a 23-7 count in SB IV. The other survivor from the NFC is a Kyle Shanahan-coached San Francisco team that's past all tests in daring teams to stop their ground & pound playoff attack that's run 89 of their 119 offensive plays the last 2 games. They've consistently averaged 31.1 rushing attempts per game this season (only 2nd to Baltimore's 37.2) & 144.1 YPG behind their 3-headed monster of RB's Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida & Tevin Coleman who averaged 4.6 yards a pop collectively. Mostert has been more than hot rushing for 220 yards versus Green Bay in the NFC Championship (2nd most only to Eric Dickerson's 248 for the Rams versus Dallas in the Divisional Round in 85'). He's had rushes for 7 yards or more in an incredible 35 of his last 112 carries. Even though DC Steve Spagnuolo's KC defense has vastly improved, they still finished a very distant 28th in opponent rushing average yielding 4.9 YPR. They'll have their hands full with the SF running game plus a clutch TE named George Kittle who not only finished 3rd among NFL TE's in yards after the catch @ 7.3 YAC but also had 27, that's right 27 3rd-down receptions that ranks #1 up against all TE's. The Chiefs' QB Pat Mahomes seems like he's another world putting up a 43 PPG average this season in the playoffs (but all on a fast track @ home) utilizing a bevy of outlets including TE Travis Kelce, WR's Tyreek Hill, Demarcus Robinson & Mecole Hardman while also hitting RB Damien Williams out of the backfield. My bottom line says KC will gets their points. However, it will be hard to navigate through the eye of the hurricane that specifically points to the defense of the 49ers. SF will chew up the clock on offense & their "D" will neutralize the Chiefs (who rush for 98.1 YPG) on a slower than normal track which is typical for the Hard Rock Stadium grass (PAT), an off surface for KC. Weather shouldn't play a factor with 8 to 10 MPH winds & a minimal chance of rain (only 1 Super Bowl had a lot of rain with Chicago & Indy in SB 41). The Chiefs' O-Line has never faced a front 4 like Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Dee Ford & DeForest Buckner. It's time to crunch some numbers! The team with the better defense (SF is #2 & KC is #17 in total "D") is a lights-out 44-9 SU in the SB. The team that's gained the most rushing yards has ruled the Super Bowl historically going 40-12-1 SU (NE & Atl tied 3 years ago in Houston). Teams winning the time of possession war are a dominant 38-15 SU & 37-13-3 ATS. Favorites carry a 24-26-3 record versus the number. Recent SB trends show the dog going 13-5 ATS the last 18 & a take-me-to-the-window 9-3 ATS since 08'. The last 12 SB's have seen 7 being decided by less than a TD. Teams who efficiently converted more on 3rd down in the regular season (KC) have come back in the SB to go a ticket-ripping 6-12 ATS. The team total sacks heading in has revealed something VERY interesting. There's been 6 teams with more than 54 total sacks in the Super Bowl. They went a collective 6-0 SU. San Francisco has 57 total sacks coming into this one. It's also ironic that both coaches are part of Bill Walsh's extensive coaching tree & feature complex offenses based in the West Coast system that Walsh created. Reid connects through Mike Holmgren (worked under Walsh as QB coach). Reid was @ GB as a TE, O-Line & QB's coach. Shanahan was actually ballboy in SB 29 for SF when his dad was OC for then HC George Seifert who was previously Walsh's DC. I believe Andy Reid (no nickname this time) has not proven he can win the "Big One" after going to the playoffs 15 times. He's still in the John Fox category (no SB wins) among 7 HC's to coach the SB representing BOTH conferences with Shula, Parcells, Reeves, Holmgren & Vermeil winning at least once. I'm looking for SF to control the tempo as they prove they have the right machismo to execute the coup de grace on the Chiefs in the final stanza. We're going to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buying to a key + 3 1/2 & with a little pasta on the ML). Moving on to real draw of the masses as in the propositions. PROP #1: Will the teams combine for 1,000+ net yards? PLAY NO & lay the lumber. PROP #2: Will the Chiefs score in every quarter? PLAY NO - 160 or so. PROP #3: Longest punt by the Chiefs' Dustin Colquitt--PLAY UNDER 54 1/2 yards -110 or so. PROP #4: 49ers last score will be a TD --PLAY YES -135 or so. PROP #5: What defense records the first sack? PLAY SF @ -110 or better. Those are it! Two side notes out of DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey- 1) the biggest play entering last week was $684,000 on San Francisco +2 @ -114. 2) Another in the Top 3 was a $187,000 play on the Moneyline @ +107 (Straight Up no points) with San Francisco inside Hollywood Casino @ Charles Town Races in West Virginia. Sunday, February 2, 2020 San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 53.5/-110 Under Rating: 8* Super Bowl Late Steam Totality - (WIN) Before we go crowning all the OVER bettors for another promised scoring orgy due to an aerial frenzy partaked by both parties, know that KC will get some running in too since the DC & 15-year vet Robert Saleh for SF will be prioritizing to stop the pass utilizing D-Line Kris Kocurek's wide-9 alignment. They key to remember here is the fact that the public is over-reacting to the offensive outputs in the AFC & NFC Championships. In fact, plays @ most sportbooks have shown there's more than 8 out of 10 bettors in on the OVER (a high than normal amount). Let me also stress again that hard Rock Stadium is NOT a fast track! My bottom line points out that these bettors are BLINDLY going into this with that OVER mentality since knowing the 49ers have turned in a 5-0-1 recent trend to the OVER & the Chiefs follow up with 3 consecutive OVERS. This will be SF's highest posted total of the season while it will be KC's 2nd highest. Let's dig a little deeper. The past 17 seasons have seen 5 Super Bowls totaling over 50. After ALL the hype has gone, 4 out of those 5 have cashed in on the UNDER! In addition, there's also another trend worth mentioning. Sometimes the officiating crew has trended in a direction worth mentioning. This time we find Bill Vinovich (Referee) & his crew come chiming in trending 58% to the UNDER. Averaging out all 53 Super Bowls, I've also found the scoring average comes out to 46.2! even if you add a TD & a PAT to it because of more passing of late, we still have about 53. The mushes & the value clearly points toward the UNDER. What am I thinking? I'm thinking NO WAY this goes OVER unless there is defensive or special teams' TD's factoring in. Is it a strong play? No, but it is strong enough based on the late steam I've received. Let's go to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play the UNDER (buying to 56 1/2) as my 8* Super Bowl Late Steam Totality! Check back for my Super Bowl summary & season rap up later.
 


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