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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 9 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 11, 2020
   
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Monday, November 09, 2020 New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 10/-120 New York Jets Rating: 8* Mike's MNF Sharp Play (WIN) There's MANY red flags to draw for this game. How can a 2-5 SU New England team be favored by over 10 when they've averaged around 12 PPG their last 4 games? QB Cam Newton has been inconsistent of late & is still the Patriots leading rusher. Not only do the Tea Men 27th in rushing defense but also 29th in scoring offense. There's a BIG misconception on NE by the mushes who have them graded 8th while the power ratings say 18th! If anyone is motivated for this game, I'd have to say it's the Fly Boys since they finally get to face the Patriots WITHOUT Brady. Of all the games left on New York's schedule, this is the week where they can play like it's their Super Bowl. There's no chance of looking ahead with a bye week up next. However, New England entertains playoff rival Baltimore @ home next week. In reality, the Pats are 4-9 SU their last 13 games of which Brady was there for 6. In addition, if aging Jets RB Frank Gore was on NE, he'd easily be their leading rusher. Both of these teams are the worst (NY) & next to worst (Pats) in yards per point. What does that mean? Compared to the Steelers (who are #1 in that category @ 11.2 yards per point), the Patriots & Jets average around 20! My bottom line says if the Jets' DC Gregg Williams loads the box for the majority, he forces the issue for Newton to throw. That won't be his strong suit since he has a horrible 2/7 TD/INT ratio heading in. Williams should also use a spy to hold Newton's running ability in check. Let's ask ourselves what's the Pats big motivation here? They're not catching Buffalo & probably not Miami either. Do they still think they have a shot @ qualifying for an 8-team AFC playoff format where they currently sit 2 1/2 games back of upswing teams like Miami, Indianapolis, Cleveland & Las Vegas? I'm not buying the intra-divisional battle angle. NY QB Joe Flacco (formerly with Baltimore) ALWAYS gets up for this team & has had success. I'm buying the Ugly Pig home team (at least for this week) as we go to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ to play the NEW YORK JETS (buy to + 10 1/2) as my 8* MNF Sharp Play! Sunday, November 08, 2020 Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -250 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 10* Rare NFL 10 Star Strongest Play Of The Week (LOSS) I'm not sure bringing in Tua Tagovailoa (12 for 22 LW & good for 90 yards passing) this early will benefit the Dolphins in their overall picture since Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing well & had built some serious momentum. Let's examine what transpired last week. The 4-3 SU Dolphins & their "D" headed by DC Josh Boyer (came over from New England) were very opportunistic in grabbing a season-high 4 turnovers (2 INT's-2 fumbles) in their 28-17 statement win over the Rams @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Upon further examination, it looked like the Boys From Cali didn't win but produced yardage like they WON by double-digits. The Rams not only out-1st downed the Fish 31 to 8 & out-rushed them 131 to 55 but also destroyed them through the air with a 340 to 90 passing yards advantage. Before the over-eager mushes hand over yet another "W" to HC Brian Flores, they better remember their OTHER wins were against the walking-wounded San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars & the New York Jets who have a combined record of 5-19 SU! It's ok in giving kudos to Miami for their 3-game winning streak but it's Arizona who also comes in with a 3-game winning streak (out-scoring opponents by an average of 17) & are the #1 team in total offense (2nd in rushing) in the NFL. Cardinals' QB Kyler Murray remembers that heated College Football Semi-Final 45-34 Playoff loss to Tua & Alabama 2 years ago & he'll be eager to show the public who matured better since then. Murray's been productive as his team has topped 20 points in EVERY contest thus far. On the flip side of the coin, Tagovailoa is a good fit for OC Chan Gailey's system. However, he's still a project in progress & will have to go through his unique set of growing pains through the learning curve. My bottom line says the Dolphins faced a fairly easy schedule thus far & yet rank 20th in overall defense. They could make the playoffs (if the field is 8) since the next time they face a winning team won't be until December 13th when they host Kansas City (Week 14). I feel the 5-2 SU Boys from The Desert have the clear advantage having 2 weeks to prepare for this one. Keep in mind that the Cardinals' X-Factor DC Vance Joseph did coach in Miami & will have extra motivation to disrupt the rhythm of the "rookie-on-the-road" Tagovailoa. Crunching the numbers reveal backing Zona' HC Cliff Kingsbury has been a profitable experience for bettors as he's 15-7-1 against the number since his inception. The Turquoise, Orange & White have failed in these non-divisional road underdog role going just 5-10 ATS. The final DAGGER for us has to point out these same Birds are a take-me-to-the-window 8-0 ATS off regular season rest AND taking on a team off a win by MORE than a FG. Even though the home team holds the better running game & playmaking receivers (Larry Fitzgerald & DeAndre Hopkins), we'll leave NO chance for a back door cover as we go to grass @ State Farm Stadium to play the ARIZONA CARDINALS as my RARE NFL 10 Star Strongest Play Of The Week! NOTES: Even though the New York Jets played their Super Bowl as predicted, I'm thoroughly disappointed in our lone loss of the last MONTH on the Arizona Cardinals. The Birds out-1st downed Miami, out-rushed them (178-91), out-passed them (264-221) & had a possession time edge. A convincing win was theirs but Kyler Murray's (rushed for 106 yards 7 was 21 for 26 passing) early fumble for a Dolphins' return TD & Cardinals' kicker Zane Gonzalez's last-minute FG that went miraculously short prevented another perfect week for us. I feel Cards' DC Vance Joseph is on the hot seat after home losses to Detroit & now Miami. This was a very, very tough pill to swallow since I was eliminated from the $250,000 NFL survivor pool after taking Arizona instead of my original pick New England. I'm still moving forward with laser focus as I'm having the best season in over a decade in the NFL. See you in Week 10! Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 9 Record: 1-1 for 50% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 17-6 for 74% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL & CFB Combined Record: 29-17 for 63%
 


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