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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 7 Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 25, 2018
   
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Sunday, October 21, 2018 Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -231 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) I'm not buying spring back at all on the part of Carolina! It also looks like Eagles' QB has brought back the crowd chant of "Wenzyl-vania" once again after 4 starts. Carson's numbers so far are impressive for a QB coming off a long stint on the DL. Wentz stands @ 1,192 passing yards, 68.4% completions, an 8/1 TD/INT ratio, sacked 13 times, rushing for 4.8 yards a pop & good for a 104.7 QBR. If he kept those numbers up, he'd be @ 32/4 if he played 16 games! For this matchup, look for DC Jim Schwartz to implement a pressure 4-3 very similar to what DC Greg Manusky did last week in Washington. No matter how you slice it or dice it, this Philly "D" remains 5th in the league in scoring defense & 3rd in rushing defense behind Washington & Baltimore. The Linc has been a tough place to play for opponents as the Eagles have gone 17-4 SU the past 3 seasons (1 was a 6-0 loss to Dallas with starters resting in Week 17 last season). Cam "The Glam" Newton & the Panthers (ranked 22nd overall on offense) invade Broad Street having dropped both games on the road by 6 or more points thus far 7 give up an average of 27 PPG when travelling. They now take on the Birds who come in fresh with 4 days extra rest. That rest will prove majorly beneficial since #1 WR Alshon Jeffery (12.1 YPC & 3 TD's) is back, Wendell Smallwood (4.7 YPC) & Corey Clement (4.1 YPC) are fresh along with RB Darren Sproles due back. Carolina will attempt to play their patented "ball possession" game but they will have an uphill climb versus a team that leads the NFL in that category. My bottom line says Philadelphia will force the Panthers into becoming a passing team (ranked-26th) where they've struggled to be consistent. The Eagles give up a stingy 17 PPG @ home & should be able to get the "W" with offensive weapons intact. My dagger has to be the success of Super Bowl winners off a Thursday night game. They enter this game being a super-solid 24-7 SU. These same Birds are also a decent 19-10-1 after taking on the New York Giants. We'll go to Lincoln Financial Field to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as my NFL Earlybird Dependable! Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -186 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rating: 9* Mike's 9 Star (Old 10 Star) NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Yes, Cleveland's rookie QB Baker Mayfield is an exciting player to watch. However, the BLUEPRINTS HAVE BEEN LAID last week in the 38-14 loss to the L.A. Chargers @ home. After starting the season with 5 games decided by 4 points or less, the Browns looked horrible in game 6. Why? Because the team played 3 OT games already & is in dire need of a bye week. HC Dirk Koetter's team is averaging 448.6 yards per game along with scoring 28.2 PPG. In contrast, Cleveland offensive output is 366.2 YPG & scores @ a 21.3 clip. I believe Tampa Bay not holds a situational edge of playing @ home but also one of clearly being the fresher team (just came off their bye week 2 weeks ago) since the Browns play for their 7th week in a row. On the Cleveland offensive side, Mayfield's (the latest Heisman Trophy winner) numbers show a 4/5 TD/INT ratio, 55.6 % completion, sacked 13 times & good for a low 72.8 QBR. This fails in comparison in the short time Bucs' QB Jameis Winston's (also a Heisman Trophy winner) been on the field, he's @ a 5/4 TD/INT ratio, 75.4% completions, sacked 4 times & good for a high 101.8 QBR. I understand that GM Jason Licht just fired DC Mike Smith. But I look for that to be a springboard for a defense that should play hard for LB Coach Mark Duffner. My bottom line says to look for Winston to shine here! He looked pretty good (even though they came up short @ Atlanta 34-29) finishing the game with 4 TD's & 512 yards of total offense. I also think the "rookie on the road" system DOES apply here! Look @ the Orange N' Brown mistakes on the road. Even though the Brownies have a super net +7 in turnover ratio overall, that figure slips dramatically to a -1 when away from FirstEnergy Stadium. This game definitely looks like points will be scored in droves by games end. With that potentially looking high, you have to HIGHLY consider the CONSISTENT playmakers involved. The 2 that IMMEDIATELY stand out are WR DeSean Jackson (21 catches for 501 yards in receptions & 3 TD's) & WR Mike Evans ( a team-leading 33 receptions for 484 receiving yards & 3 TD's). On the other side of the ledger, WR Jarvis Landry (31 catches for 392 yards receiving & 1 TD) leads in receptions & yards for a team that has NO receiver with multiple TD's. Here's 2 daggers to complete this play. In the numbers show the Buccaneers with a 44 to 34 edge in 3rd-down conversions. Secondly, Tampa Bay has clearly shown they've protected the QB much better allowing just 11 sacks compared to Cleveland's 26. Remember, the Bucs have an AFC game on deck @ Cincinnati. The Browns have a PIVOTAL divisional game (unfinished business left from their Week 1 21-21 tie) with hated rival Pittsburgh next week @ Heinz Field. O'h I'm ready! I'm definitely ready to feel the warmer air in Florida as we go to Raymond James Stadium to play the fresher TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS as my 9 Star (Old 10 Star) NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES/LOOK-AHEADS: I was very disappointed to say the least after Philly blew a 17-0 4th quarter lead with 11 minutes to go. As a result, that possible 13-1 record for the season dropped down 1 lower. The Eagles controlled the ball for 10 1/2 more minutes, Wentz connected on 30 of 37 attempts & TE Zach Ertz dominated with 9 receptions for 138 receiving yards. Even though Philadelphia came into the game with the #1 red-zone defense in the NFL, they went 0-for-3 against Carolina. They did contain Cam Newton for 3 quarters limiting him to 8 completions in 15 attempts & good for 59 yards. The final stanza is when DC Jim Schwartz fell asleep! OC Norv Turner went to the infamous quick-strike, no-huddle offense & the Eagles clearly weren't ready. In 1 quarter, Newton went 17 of 24 for 210 yards. Schwartz's "D" had their chances with Ronald Darby jumping a route & missing an INT on a Newton under-thrown salvo. The real dagger happened with Philly up 17-14 & the Panthers facing with a 4th-and-10 with 2 minutes & 6 seconds left. CB Jalen Mills was man up on Torrey Smith & allowed him to get behind him. Smith caught the pass & went 35 yards for a first down. Two passes to Christian McCaffery & a 2-yard run by Newton completed a 21-point comeback & sent the Eagles to 3-4 SU along with our Zak to London against Philadelphia. Will new wideout Amari Cooper compliment Cole Beasley in giving QB Dak Prescott a deeper threat when they take on Tennessee on Monday night in Week 9? I'll be keeping a keen eye on 2 games late Sunday with playoff implications. Those games will be Green Bay @ the Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 PM & the 8:20 PM Sunday night playoff rematch game featuring the New Orleans Saints @ the Minnesota Vikings. I'd like to thank all loyal customers for their patience & confidence in when we step out on a key game. We'll see you in NFL Week 8 this weekend! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 12-2 for a #1 rank in VegasTopDog Winning Percentage of 86%.
 

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