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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 6 Analysis & review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 19, 2020
   
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Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -200 Tennessee Titans Rating: 9* 9* Under-Valued Homer Play (WIN) Even though the Texans broke the ice last week when HC Romeo Crennel's (73 now & the oldest HC in the NFL) made yet another HC'ing debut, the Titans look like they're on a mission since exiting the AFC playoffs in the championship round last winter. Tennessee does have less time to prepare (beat Buffalo 42-16 Tuesday night) but they should be able to finesse a non-fancy "W" against a team with an offense ranked 24th in scoring. Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill has fared well with a nifty 6/1 TD/INT ratio & a 67.3% completion rate. He & RB Derrick Henry will now face a Houston rushing defense that's ranked 30th in the NFL. My bottom line says the HC Mike Vrabel game plan always starts with smash-mouth football where Henry gets his rushes (82 so far in just 3 games) which not only allows the Titans to control the clock but it also gives Tannehill a chance to thrive using play-action. As long as Tennessee doesn't plan to sit some starters, they should be able to win this crucial divisional battle. Let's crunch some numbers! Today's numbers focus on HC Romeo Crennel. When his teams take on opponents in the division, the results come out a dreadful 7-26 SU. IF Crenell & Co. are coming off a SU win, they've lost 10 out of 10 games SU & covering jusgt 1. I'm NOT giving Houston too much value since they put up 30 versus lowly Jacksonville. We are giving value to the more-focused Titans (power rated 12th but the bettors see them @ 14th) who want ANOTHER crack @ Kansas City in the end. We're confidently go to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the TENNESSEE TITANS as my 9* Under-Valued Homer Play! Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-110 Chicago Bears Rating: 8* Mike's Sunday Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (WIN) Why Chicago? It's plain & simple. The Bears' DC Chuck Pagano has his troops dialed into his 3-4 defensive scheme as they're rated 9th in total defense, 10th against the pass & 4th in scoring. They have one of the best edge-rushers in the game with Khalil Mack. Mack & Co. have given up a league-low 4 TD passes to date. Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater (6/3 TD/INT ratio) should have trouble thriving in play-action versus this type of "D" which is designed to frustrate QB's looking to throw down the field. The absence of dual-threat RB Christian McCaffrey will be felt in the Panthers' back field today. Chicago is anything but intimidated on the road where they've compiled a 2-0 SU record while averaging 28.5 PPG. My bottom line says HC Matt Nagy should have the advantage of prep time since his teams beat Tampa Bay last Thursday. For some reason when Carolina takes on the complexion of the favorite, they seem to under-achieve on the scoreboard. This is especially true versus hte NFC North where they're a ticket-ripping 4-10-1 ATS. Sealing the deal for us has to point out that NFL favorites (the past 24 years) coming off consecutive back-to-back SU wins as an underdog come back to go a no-show 3-14-1 versus the number against non-divisional teams. We'll go to Bank Of America Stadium in Charlotte to play the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8* Sunday Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-110 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 8* Mike's 8* Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN) We're taking the POINTS for a reason here. Indianapolis QB Philip Rivers will have more than a tall TASK trying to win this game by double-digits considering he has a 4/5 TD/INT ratio. These next to weeks for the Colts are like hibernation for the bears. Frank Reich & Co. are off next week before they travel to nearby Detroit the following week. I'm questioning how effective OLB Darius "The Maniac" Leonard is going to be if taking a chance playing hurt as opposed to sitting out another week. His absence last week killed our Indy pick last week versus Cleveland. I also believe pushing the line into the double-digits has a neutralizing effect when you take into account "the rookie on the road" theory with QB Joe Burrow (sacked 22 times) under center for the Bengals. Cincinnati is saturated with value coming off a 3-point performance versus Baltimore. Burrow (1,304 passing yards, 65.2% completion rate, a 6/3 TD/INT ratio & 85 rushing yards for 1 TD) has the better numbers over Rivers & should be able to get the cover here! Remember, the only time Burrow was held under 17 points (L.A. Chargers in Week 1), he came back to lose a 35-30 barnburner on the road @ Cleveland. On our way to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 8* Barking Out Loud Dogger! Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -150 Detroit Lions Rating: 9* Mike's 9* Strongest Play/Perfect System (WIN) There's not too much to this play except to point out the 1-3 SU Lions come in well-rested & have taken on 4 winning teams thus far. They've bounced back nicely of late going 7-1 ATS with extra rest. They'll meet 1-4 SU Jacksonville (lost 7 in a row to NFC competition) who've lost 3 in a row to losing teams by more than a TD. Are they already in tank mode? My bottom line points out this play against 33-0 perfect system since 2012. PLAY AGAINST home underdogs who failed to cover that are off 2 consecutive underdog losses AND playing a team averaging between 3 1/2 & 5 rushing yards per carry on 24 or more team rushes per game. Detroit QB Matt Stafford will play one of the worst defense in the league (Jacksonville is 30th in scoring defense & allow 77% completions to opposing QB's). We're ready to go to TIAA Bank Field in Florida to play the DETROIT LIONS as my 9* Strongest Play/Perfect System Play! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Week 6 Record: 4-0 100% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 14-5 74% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB & NFL Overall Record: 22-10 69%
 


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