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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 5 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 13, 2020
   
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Sunday, October 11, 2020 Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-119 Pittsburgh Steelers Rating: 7* Mike's 8* NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) There's no much to this pick in that the Pittsburgh Steelers are clearly the more fundamentally & sounder football team of the 2. After 4 games, the Eagles barely break in the Top 20 NFL teams @ #20. On the flip side, the Steelers (highly under-rated in the bettor ratings @ 17th) come rolling in @ #12 in the power rankings despite a forced bye week last week. For today's game, Pittsburgh will have some badly needed JUICE as 5,500 fans will be allowed in the stadium. Pitt DC Keith Butler has his troops @ #1 in the NFL versus the run & #2 overall & should manipulate down & distance situations to their advantage. I don't think the Philadelphia defense (7th overall) won't be able to create turnovers (2 INT's in 4 games thus far) with veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger (7/1 TD/INT ratio) like they did last week against the very green Nick Mullens of SF. My bottom line points out that Philly isn't just down OT Lane Johnson (which is 1 of 4 offensive linemen). They are also missing top wideouts Alshon Jeffery & DeSean Jackson. These factors are the key reasons why QB Carson Wentz has a miserable 4/7/ TD/INT ratio which is clearly the worst in the league. The 25-20 score may not be indicative of how things were statistically (being + 2 in TO ratio was crucial) as the Birds were out-gained 417 to 267. Crunching numbers reveal Philadelphia being 0-5 ATS right before they play Baltimore. Even though it was a few years ago, that 34-3 pasting the Black N' Gold took @ the hands of Philly will be extra motivation to execute revenge here. Since HC Mike Tomlin wants to get his players in & out with a healthy SU "W" (since currently 3-1 SU Cleveland awaits), here's how we'll play this. Let's go to Heinz Field to start off our Sunday as we play the PITTSBURGH STEELERS (but buying way down to - 2 1/2) as my 8* NFL Earlybird Dependable! Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1/-110 Indianapolis Colts Rating: 8* Mike's 8* NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) First, let's give kudos to brand-spanking new HC Kevin Stefanski for a 3-1 SU record & figuring out what makes his players tick. However, their wins came against teams with a 3-8-1 SU record (should be 2-9-1 if it wasn't for that successful on-side kick versus Atlanta)! On the other hand, it looks like the Colts have also turned the corner under HC Frank Reich (also 3-1 SU) after beating the Bears in Chicago (who are fresh from knocking off Tampa Bay Thursday) 19-11. What the average joes aren't perceiving is the fact that Indianapolis is #1 in time of possession (around +7 minutes per game of possession time) in the AFC. The Browns offensive line dominated a very weak Dallas defensive front as they ran for 307 yards led by Kareem Hunt. The last time they were that dominant was back 2009 when Eric Mangini's Brownies (won 41-34) rushed for 351 yards led by Jerome Harrison's 286 versus KC @ Arrowhead. But in reality, QB Baker Mayfield & Cleveland has scored 30 points for 3 consecutive weeks (last time they did that was with Blanton Collier's 68' Browns behind RB Leroy Kelly-7 weeks in a row over 30+) against porous defenses including Cincinnati (28th versus the rush), Washington (23rd versus the rush) & Dallas (31st versus the rush). However, when they played Baltimore (6th versus the rush), they lost 38-6! They now play the #1 defense in the NFL overall that has only yielded 14 PPG & 236 YPG WITHOUT their #1 playmaker in RB Nick Chubb who is out with an MCL knee injury. My bottom line has to start by emphasizing that teams who control the clock usually win. The key difference here is OC Nick Sirianni has implemented a ball-control offense that snaps the ball every 30.3 seconds in which QB Philip Rivers (72.7% completion rate) has adapted to. Crunching the numbers has revealed the Colts being a perfect 7-0 ATS after Chicago tussles. The public perception on Indianapolis differs MUCH from the power ratings as well. While the Horseshoes are ranked 10th by bettor ratings, their power rating is #4 in the NFL. In contrast, Cleveland chimes with a PR of 13th. Keep in mind the Orange & Brown have a game with hated rival Pittsburgh on deck. Ok, here's where we'll play this. We'll take a quick jaunt to an empty & rainy FirstEnergy Stadium to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8* NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints (NFL) - 8:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: ML New Orleans Saints Rating 8* Mike's 8* MNF Late Steam Headliner Moneyliner The biggest detail to this pick has to emphasize that New Orleans NOW has better key personnel back on offense & defense. QB Drew Brees may not have that rifle arm but he's still got a nifty 10/2 TD/INT ratio AND 71.3% completion rate. Even though the Saints are just 2-2 SU, they're under-achieving due to key injuries the last few games. Newly-inserted QB Justin Herbert (102.2 QB rating) has looked excellent but my rookie-on-the-road theory certainly kicks in here. NOT having Austin Ekeler (a speedster from Western U.) who is 1st in rushing & 3rd in receiving will be missed. Herbert can stretch the field vertically but I feel Brees still has something extra to execute the "W". He never got rattled & showed great poise after trailing Detroit by 2 scores last week. I can't picture a team with this much talent having a 2-3 SU start. My bottom line says NO's DC Dennis Allen has his troops chiming in @ #6 in total defense in the league while LA's way back @ 19th. DC Gus Bradley's 4-3 scheme just struggled on the road last week versus another veteran in Tom Brady when it gave up 38. It now faces a team averaging 32 PPG @ home. Keep in mind that the Mardi Gras' have lost 2 consecutive prime-timers in a row SU heading into this. Crunching the numbers reveal we don't mess with the Saints in October where they've won 13 consecutive games SU & now go up against a team #22 on the depth charts (power ratings). That's exactly where we're going once again! Let's go to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome to lay the JUICE on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS as my 8 * MNF Late Steam Headliner Moneyliner! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Week 5 Record: 2-1 for 67% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 10-5 for 67% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 Combined NFL & CFB Overall Record: 18-7 for a surreal 72%
 


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