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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 4 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 3, 2019
   
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Sunday, September 29, 2019 Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1/-110 Minnesota Vikings Rating: 9* Mike's Later Games' Intra-Divisional Dominator (LOSS) Yes, the Bears will certainly welcome home sweet home as they're back @ Soldier Field for the first time since opening Thursday-Week 1 when they lost to the Packers 10-3. For this matchup, I love our chances with the Purple People Eaters since Chicago comes in off a Monday game with Washington AND have a London game on deck versus Oakland (I bet OLB Khalil Mack is looking forward to that one). While many will point out how suffocating DC Chuck Pagano's 3-4 defensive alignment is, I'm thinking the better defense today is on the other side. DC George Edwards & HC Mike Zimmer still run a 4-3 "over" with aggressive double A-gap blitz packages. Using varied coverages will make it tough for Trubisky to find a rhythm. I'm looking for DE's Everson Griffen & Danielle Hunter to dial up enough pressure from the edges to force Trubisky to throw the ball into very tight windows that should create turnovers. Remember, we're 3 games in & Trubisky has a 0/1 TD/INT ratio with a very low 65 QBR. My bottom line says Minnesota is rushing for about 194 yards per game on over 34 carries. Numbers DON'T LIE as the Vikings are a perfect 34-0 when they run the ball 30+ times. Team performance in the key 3rd-down conversion category shows Minnesota with a wide 43.8% to 23.1% advantage. While the Bears' own a Top 5 rushing defense, I still look for RB Dalvin Cook (a league-best 375 yards rushing, 6.6 YPC & 4 TD's) to have some decent runs after the early adrenalin disappears. Even though QB Kirk Cousins doesn't have dazzling stats thus far, he still comes into this having an NFL-best 19 straight games with a passing TD. Our X-Factor for this game looks @ the Vikings' skipper Mike Zimmer. Since becoming the HC, he's a stellar 52-29-3 ATS (64%) & is an even better 28-13 (68%) against the number when seeking revenge. The dagger for us has to be his perfect 3-0 ATS slate when travelling with exact double revenge. Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-110 Carolina Panthers Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN) There's been a lot of turmoil & hostility for Carolina the past few weeks. However, newly-inserted QB Kyle Allen has looked brilliant in his relief role for Cam Newton. Allen not only threw 4 TD passes & no picks @ Arizona but had 10 yards per pass attempt & wound up with a super 144.4 QBR! Yes, this is the same Kyle Allen that beat out Kyler Murray @ Texas A&M that made him bolt to Oklahoma. Sad to say but Allen just threw for more D's in 1 game (4) that Newton totaled in his last 4 starts! The Panthers are ranked in the Top 10 on offense now while Houston chimes in around 17th. We have to love that the Panthers' defense (5th overall & 2nd versus the pass) gets a chance to put pressure on QB Deshaun Watson whose been sacked 12 times which is good for 4th worst in the league (next to Miami, N.Y Jets & Arizona). Carolina is currently tied with Jacksonville for the league-best in sacks with 13 (DE Mario Addison leads the team with 3 1/2 sacks). There's no denying that HC Ron Rivera has been BIG money as an underdog going 17-9 ATS the past 4 seasons. Other numbers that stand out point @ the Texans being a no-show 1-12 ATS when off of an underdog win & immediately facing a losing team ALSO coming off being in an underdog role. My bottom line says these 2 teams are hard to separate. That's why playing the team & specific number gives us a supreme advantage. Let's go to NRG Stadium in Texas to play the CAROLINA PANTHERS (buying to our number @ + 7 1/2) as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable! Tennessee Titans vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-115 Tennessee Titans Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) Until the Atlanta Falcons SHOW me some form of consistency, they're NOT worth laying more than a FG versus a like opponent. I love the fact that DC Dean Pees 3-4 defensive scheme is the right Rx in dialing up exotic blitzes to force QB Matt Ryan (8/6 TD/INT ratio & a 95.2 QBR) to disrupt his rhythm. Ryan's 6 INT's in the first 3 games is just 1 short of how many he threw all of last season. The Titans' defense is the 3rd-best in the NFL versus the pass. Until the Falcons get away from being a pass-heavy team, they won't be too consistent. Remember, the Dirty Birds have only won 8 of their past 24 games SU! My bottom line says Tennessee is not only off of extra rest but also are off being embarrassed by Jacksonville. Mariota should have a successful day against a banged-up secondary that's green AND also are coming off losing S Keanu Neal to an Achilles injury. I feel RB Derrick Henry & TE Delanie Walker can be excellent playmakers who can be used to control the time of possession. We'll gladly back HC Mike Vrabel off of back-to-back SU losses. Let's roll to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia to play the TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 8* NFL Earlybird Dependable! NOTES: It was super nice as Tennessee & Carolina won outright as ML dogs in the early affairs. That pushed the season record to a thriving 8-2. After that, Kirk Cousins hit the field in Chicago. Even though Cousins has the #1 running back in the NFL in his backfield, he forgot to be a little more mobile & innovative against the Bears' "D". His chalkboard ineptitude led to his offensive struggles with the running game. In addition, I thought the Minnesota defense (like Ch--Town's) would have been equally tough against Trubisky by getting turnovers. However, Trubisky left the game with a shoulder injury that made way for backup Chase Daniel. Daniel looked sharp & generated enough points against Zimmer's "D" to get the home win. Well, before we move on to Week 5, let's separate the 8 brand-spanking new HC's into tops & flops. For the tops I have Bruce Arians (Buccaneers 2-2), Matt LeFleur (Packers 3-1) & Freddie Kitchens (Browns 2-2) for a combined 7-5 record. For the flops I submit Zac Taylor (Bengals 0-4), Brian Flores (Dolphins 0-4), Vic Fangio (Broncos 0-4), Adam Gase (Jets 0-3) & Kliff Kingsbury (0-3-1) for an unbearable overall record of 0-18-1! If you want a week to be here, the first weekend of October is sweep weekend. Be back & expect success! Mike Handzelek's 2019 NFL Week 4 Record: 2-1 for 67% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Record: 8-3 for a surreal 73%
 


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