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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 4 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 5, 2020
   
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Sunday, October 04, 2020 Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -170 Buffalo Bills Rating: 10* Mike's First NFL 10 Star Of The Year (WIN) Let there be NO mistake that Bills' QB Josh Allen is the real deal! He has developed over the first 3 & is getting better. His 71.4% completion rate, 10/1 TD/INT ratio, 2 rushing TD's & 1,038 passing yards are no fluke. Raiders' DC Paul Guenther 4-3 scheme has struggled against the run (164 yards per game) already giving up 491 yards & 6 TD's while giving up 30 PPG (ranking 25th) to date. This game is like the last game of the pre-season physically & it looks like Buffalo has progressed & Las Vegas has regressed throughout. The Bills were a legitimate playoff team last season & NOW have added WR Stefan Diggs to a receiving corp that is averaging an amazing 13 yards per reception thus far. They'll face a porous "D" (also 31st in takeaways last season) that left a lot on the field in trying to upset the Patriots last week. Buffalo beat the Dolphins on the road after they took on New England. My bottom line says Josh Allen's triple-threat option (he's also rushed 22 times for 84 yards thus far) will present problems through out. On the flip side, it's going to be a struggle getting RB Josh Jacobs going when Las Vegas has injuries to 3 players on the offensive line. Crunching the numbers reveal Buffalo going a super-solid 8-2-2 versus the number their last 12 travelers. With the Raiders' "D" giving up 30 PPG & the Bills' "D" relinquishing around 17 PPG over their past 10 roadies, I feel another SU win on the road is bumped up to VIP status. Remember, HC Jon Gruden has a BIG double-revenger on deck with the World Champion Kansas City Chiefs! Let's get psyched as we go to brand-spanking new but empty Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas to unleash my First NFL 10 Star Of The Year as we grab the BUFFALO BILLS! Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rating: 9* Mike's Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) Yes, it's expensive. However, QB Tom Brady has had a month to digest the Buccaneers' player tendencies & should be MORE in rhythm. Yes, he's handicapped with a few offensive starters hurt like RB Leonard Fournette. While LA WR Mike Williams mends, let's look for the Buccaneers defense with blitz-minded DC Todd Bowles (better DC than a HC) to generate a few turnovers from rookie QB (fresh out of Oregon) Justin Herbert while keying on RB Austin Ekeler & WR Keenan Allen. My bottom line says even though Brady is old enough to be Herbert's father (43 & 21), he's lost to 1 rookie QB in his 20-YEAR career! That's where we going with this. Lay the juice! Forget the Chargers due theory. We fell victim to it last week. With the forecast a bit wet, my rookie-on-the-road system CERTAINLY applies here! Let's watch as TB gives TB another "W". We'll play the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS just for the SU "W" as my 9* Headliner Moneyliner @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa! Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-120 Chicago Bears Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) It hurts being a Colts' fan & having to be on the OTHER side. However, we'll go where the numbers take us. We're getting a 3-0 SU underdog with points that come in with a ton of positive energy behind newly-inserted QB Nick Foles. Yes, Foles re-unites with his OC @ Philly & now Indy HC. Even MORE bigger than that is familiar Bears' DC Chuck Pagano getting to face his old team. Numbers don't lie as Foles is a window-cashing 12-5 SU yet alone versus the spread when facing .700 or better teams (5-2 ATS if a dog). On the flip side of the coin is Philip Rivers. The past 2 games has seen him throw for an average of 210.5 yards passing & has a vanilla 3/3 TD/INT ratio. Yes, the Colts have the overall #1 defense in the NFL. Further examination reveals they've done it versus teams with a combined 1-8 SU record. My bottom points out that Game 4 (3-0) home teams (Bears) not favored by 7 or more versus a non-divisional opponent have a dominating 25-4 versus the number. There's really something brewing here since my Horseshoes are also a perfect 0-8 ATS when out of their division & coming off consecutive SU wins. Chicago has become a special team this season as they're the FIRST NFL club to grab 2 same-season SU wins after trailing by 16 or more in the 4th quarter. Both of these teams have game totals hovering in the low 20's which POINTS are PREMIUM! We'll gladly take the points with Pagano's 3-4 scheme & Foles having great chemistry with his receivers & #1 RB (former Iowa State product) David Montgomery whose taken over for the injured Tarik Cohen. We'll travel to Soldier Field in Illinois to play the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9* NFL Ugly Pig Earlybird Dependable! Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 8:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 8/-110 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (WIN) It looks like the Eagles are down & out for the season with its miserable 0-2-1 (mathematically like 0-3 though). Enter in Philly QB & on the hot spot Carson Wentz. He & his offense have turned the ball over 7 times thus far but yet find themselves 1/2 game out of 1st place. I mean we'd have to go back 35 YEARS to find the last time an Eagles QB threw at least 2 or more INT's in 3 consecutive games (Ron Jaworski). My bottom line says we're getting a desperate team with great value that has the 6th-ranked defense in the league. San Francisco beat a porous Giants "D" that allowed backup QB Nick Mullens to pick them apart. Philadelphia lulled their viewers to sleep when the usually gambling HC Doug Pederson settled for a tie with the Bengals? This week we'll see a horse of a different color. Remember, the 49ers have lost 2 key defensive playmakers in Joey Bosa & Solomon Thomas & are dealing with injuries on all 3 levels of their "D". The Eagles should be able to put some points on the board & stay competitive here. Let's go to Santa Clara's Levi Stadium to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (buying to + 10 1/2) as my NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Week 4 Record: 3-1 75% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 8-4 67% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB & NFL Combined Record: 13-5 72%
 


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