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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 3 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 26, 2018
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Sunday, September 23, 2018 Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 7* Mike's NFL Early Chalker (WIN) I seriously don't believe we saw the best out of Baltimore on the short week versus Cincinnati. However, I do believe we'll see their "A" game here versus Denver. The Broncos are playing above their means & now make the big time zone switch as well as against a rested opponent. Go back to Week 1 when I mentioned QB Joe Flacco knows R.G. III & Lamar Jackson are waiting in the wings. Expect him to respond here in a BIG way from the start s his team plays directly into triple revenge. That game @ Paul Brown Stadium last Thursday was a tad misleading. In the loss (due to turnovers) the Ravens still out-gained the Bengals by a 425-373 count. Remember, Denver is just 1-9 SU & ATS their past 10 roadies. My bottom line says the Broncs spent a lot of time staging a comeback (against a suspect Raiders team) only to win it @ the end last game. I'm afraid much of their juice was left on the field against the Silver N' Black in this young season. My first dagger has to be the Baltimore 3-4 defensive scheme (2nd in total defense in the NFL) being a horrible matchup for the Orange & Blue QB Case Keenum. Keenum NOT having ORT Jared Veldheer to protect him WILL play a factor. The second dagger is the Ravens being a perfect 4-0 ATS coming off a Thursday loss SU. My last dagger looks @ the "Boys from Inner Harbor" after Cincinnati donnybrooks. Not only are they a lights-out 12-4 SU in this situation of late, but a near-perfect 8-1 ATS if up against a non-divisional team the following week (Denver). Let's get ready to make tracks to M&T Bank Stadium to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS for the "W" as my NFL Early Chalker! Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-125 Washington Redskins Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Missed Perception Play (WIN) Don't be too quick to attack this Redskins' squad after their 21-9 debacle @ home versus the Colts. Indy HC Frank Reich is a master of the NFC East (check his record the last 2 seasons as OC @ Philadelphia). For this matchup, expect the Washington O-Line to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers who won't be that mobile with that new left knee brace. Look for the Landover crowd to be BACK @ full capacity after breaking a home sellout streak last week versus Indianapolis that dates back to 1967! What intrigues me here is the major drama the Packers endure in back-to-back weeks @ Lambeau. They had to erase a 20-point Bears' lead in Week 1 while having to press hard last week to achieve an OT tie with physical Minnesota. Since Rodgers should be a fraction of his usual self here, this game remains to be a FLAT spot. The Skins' come in off an embarrassment & QB Alex Smith (has a 71% completions rate & no INT's in 76 attempts this season) should be @ his "A" game abilities. My bottom line says the offensive blueprints for Alex Smith were laid last week in the Minny/Green Bay tilt where the Vikings chalked up 480 total yards (22 points in the 4th quarter) versus new DC Mike Pettine's 3-4 scheme. The dagger for us here is an improved Redskins' "D" under the direction of DC Greg Manusky. He has the Maroon N' Gold chiming in @ 1st in the NFL in total defense & 2nd in points yielded. I'm ready to head to FedEx Field to play the WASHINGTON REDSKINS (buying to + 4 1/2 @ OUR number) as my NFL Missed Perception Play! NOTES: Wow! The Dolphins are sitting atop the AFC East by 2 complete games? Thanks to Lions' HC & Ex-Pats DC Matt Patricia. Patricia knew how to double-team Gronkowski & force Brady to beat him over the top with limited playmaking receivers. DC Paul Pasqualoni borrowed a similar "D" from Jacksonville's Todd Wash (4-3 alignment) that turned out to be some very valuable blueprints. What's left for NE? Josh Gordon must be worked into the offense as well as Julian Edelman in the upcoming weeks. This weekend is more a pivotal game than most think since the Fish have a manageable October schedule forthcoming. Miami's DC Matt Burke runs the same alignment that Brady struggled with the past 2 weeks. We'll see if their secondary can avoid getting burned deep & limit Brady on his home turf. The Dolphins NEED a BIG game from Ryan Tannehill. So far, Tannehill has generated 9.3 yards per pass attempt & has NOW currently won 10 of his last 11 starts SU. In contrast after 3 games, Brady ranks 24th in the NFL registering just 6.4 yards PPA-his lowest of his career that spans back to 2002. The microscope will be on Tom Terrific the next 3 weeks with the Patriots entertaining Miami, Indianapolis & Kansas City. Speaking of KC, we'll see how real QB Patrick Mahomes (13/0 TD/INT ratio) is when they now play @ Denver (on MNF), Jacksonville & @ New England (on SNF) in Weeks 4 thru 6. Why? Because it was last year when the Chiefs jumped out 5-0 with Alex Smith before free-falling to 10-6 & a first-round playoff exit to Tennessee 22-21. We'll ALSO see how good the Rams REALLY are as well in Weeks 4 thru 6 with Minnesota (on TNF) home before travelling to Seattle & Denver in consecutive weeks. I love with HC Sean McVay (2nd year/14-6 overall record) has done with the Rams & QB Jared Goff in a short time. However, keep in mind that L.A. may be 3-0 but those wins came against teams with a 1-8 collective record. The Rams are the ONLY NFL team to have both a Run Coordinator (Aaron Kromer) & a Pass Coordinator (Shane Waldron) instead of 1 OC. In addition, look for the OTHER L.A. (Chargers) to make up some ground in October after starting 1-2 despite a Top 5 offense with QB Phillip Rivers. Up above in Oakland, trouble & big-time heat has followed $100 Million Dollar Man HC Jon Gruden who may start 0-6 after facing upstart Cleveland, the L.A. Chargers & Seattle in London the next 3. On the Eagles front, they remain a work in progress after barely holding on (Colts stalled on the 4 late) 20-16 despite a 40-20 time of possession advantage & a 379-209 total yards edge. With DC Jim Schwartz heading a suffocating rushing defense (1st in NFL), they bought a little more time until 3 key playmakers (RB Jay Ajayi, RB Darren Sproles & WR Alshon Jeffery are healthy again. A key game versus Minnesota @ home looms in Week 5. Well ALSO see if the NY Giants will stiffen or spiral the next 3 with New Orleans home, @ Carolina & Philadelphia home (TNF). Keep in mind the Giants with manning have NOT scored 30 or more points since 2015! On the flip side of New York, I'm keeping a close eye on rookie on the road QB Sam Darnold & how he handles DC Todd Wash's "D" in Jacksonville. With interchanging safeties & suffocating man coverage, pressure on the rookie will be @ a feverish pitch. Early week lines have moved against the grain in Week 4 so as always, we'll be selective & ALWAYS play the games @ OUR NUMBER to sustain momentum. Look for CFB late Friday/early Saturday as look for a sweep! NOTE: Consult VTD Articles (top right on website) for accurate records since buy points are NOT factored in on VTD standings. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 6-0 for 100%

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