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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 3 Analysis/Review/Key Notes-NYG New Era?


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 26, 2019
   
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Sunday, September 22, 2019 New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -215 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) This pick doesn't go early but we're giving it out early as we head to the west coast for a 4:25 PM kickoff. There's no doubt that these Seahawks are later-season starters. But this holds true more for road games. When you dig deeper into how well HC Pete Carroll's team has done SU @ home in the month of September, you'll find that Seattle has won 15 consecutive games outright. What stands out for us has to be the performance of today's starting QB's. It looks evident that NO backup QB Teddy Bridgewater (72.2 QBR) will need time to shake off the rust by getting a ton of more reps after turning in a 17-for-30 for 165 yards & a minus 3-yards per pass attempt than Brees (8.5 to 5.5). My bottom line here says the Blue & Green get to face the 27th-ranked rushing defense. That's a more than comforting thought since RB's Chris Carson & Rashaad Penny along with triple-threat QB Russell Wilson (134.5 QBR) get to face a team relinquishing 5.6 yards per carry. If you go back to last season, Wilson has a brilliant 41/7 TD/INT ratio. The scheduling has to favor the home squad here also with HC Sean Payton & Co. on the west coast for 2 consecutive weeks. Remember, the last 2 New Orleans trips to the northwest (with Brees) ended in SU losses. When comparing these defenses on 3rd-down conversion rates, Seattle's "D" owns close to a 12 percentage point advantage! The Seahawks also enjoy the advantage of getting back from injury DE's Ezekiel Ansah & rookie DE L.J. Collier. They'll get big boost from the recently acquired from Houston OLB Jadeveon Clowney. With the Saints being habitually slow starters (& without Brees), I feel that'll be too much to overcome. Let's go to CenturyLink Field in Washington to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS as my 8* NFL Earlybird Dependable! Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-110 Atlanta Falcons Rating: 9* Mike's Inter-Conference Surpriser (WIN off the Buy) There's TOO many mushes over-emphasizing the fact that Atlanta has lost 10 consecutive inter-conference games ATS. What they're NOT over-emphasizing is how DC Matt Eberflus is going to compensate for the missing/injured key cog in the heart of his defense OLB Darius Leonard. There's 2 sides to my surpriser. The Colts' opponent comes into this one being ranked 3rd in total defense & that's after paying @ Minnesota & home to Philadelphia. What also sticks out has been how Indy has responded immediately AFTER their divisional battles with the Titans. The result is a very eye-catching 1-6 ATS. Combine this with the Horseshoes horrible 1-5 SU & ATS record in their last 6 home openers & I believe we have something brewing! Since I've loved this franchise since the Johnny Unitas days of splendor, it's alarming to see 46-year-old K Adam Vinatieri's (missed 3 extra-points the first 2 weeks) decline. His early inconsistencies usually translate to unnecessary L's like we already saw against the Chargers. Another undeniable fact looks in-depth @ how NFL teams respond after starting the season with 2 road games & come home for Week 3. Examining this situation for the past 16 seasons has revealed that these Week 3 homers have gone a ticket-ripping 28.2% ATS! My bottom line says the Falcons will flourish on the road in this dome-like-home setting. HC Dan Quinn is a "produce now" mode compared to Frank Reich who is starting his 2nd season. Atlanta has also responded nicely covering their last 7 of 8 when they hit the road off of a home game going up against an opponent off an away game. Let's travel to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to play the ATLANTA FALCONS (buying to a key + 3 1/2) & a little on the ML as my 9* Inter-Conference Surpriser! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-105 Pittsburgh Steelers Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Later Game High Kicker (WIN) This name of this pick was certainly thought of when I remembered how KC WR Elmo Wright used to do his infamous TD dance in the end-zone. The one thing people failed to point out is how difficult the Steelers' schedule has been (New England & Seattle) & easy San Francisco's (Tampa bay & Cincinnati) has been. The knee-jerk reaction here is to go against the "rookie-on-the-road" in Pitt QB Mason Rudolph. However, lines have caught up to this & have compensated for it. Rudolph is no slouch. His 6'5 & 235-pound frame is very close to Roethlisberger's. He won't be shy to air it out as he did in his senior year @ Oklahoma State when he passed for 4, 553 yards. I still feel that having RB James Connor back is key for Rudolph to have play-action. There's no doubt that not having Roethlisberger, Bell & Brown in the offensive lineup has its drawbacks. However, the Steelers have felt adversity before. Remember, they're 0-2 SU but hasn't had a losing season in 16 seasons! Some key injuries & additions to consider are San Francisco OT Joe Staley being lost for the year & the Steelers' bolting their secondary with the addition of S Minkah Fitzpatrick. Look for Fitzpatrick to adjust (he can play cornerback or safety) to a playmaker role in joining DT Cameron Hayward & OLB T.J. Watt. Some numbers to digest have to be the Steelers' 5-0 ATS run versus the NFC as well as the 49ers being a no-show @ the window going 0-7 ATS when off a non-divisional game & now playing a team off consecutive SU defeats. Because of the fact SF QB Jimmy Garappolo brings in a 10-2 SU record as a NFL starter, we'll stay clear of the ML. However, its comforting knowing we'll be getting points versus a team that's defense is allowing to convert 3rd downs @ a 48.3% rate. We're ready to go to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara to take the PITTSBURGH STEELERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my NFL Later Game High Kicker! KEY NOTES: It took plenty for us to lose just our 2nd NFL game of the season. Even though the Saints upset Seattle 33-27, the Seahawks had a wide 26-15 edge in first downs, out-rushed New Orleans 109-88 & Russell Wilson put up 406 passing yards compared to Bridgewater's 177. The difference-makers in the game were the 53-yard punt return for a TD by Deonte Harris less than 3 minutes into the game & a 33-yard fumble return for a TD by Vonn Bell in quarter 2. In the Falcons-Colts game, buying points turned a loss into another win. Getting us on the right side of the number 3 showed it pays over the long haul. In fact, if we go through the season taking ALL teams with an average juice coming out to -130, we only need to win 56.5% of the time to keep us in the black. We hit 64% last season & are currently sitting @ 75% this year. If all the skeptics & naysayers report it can't be done consistently, they're ACTUALLY saying they're not good enough to do it. After winning the holy grail of NFL handicapping, the Las Vegas Superbook Contest in 2007-08, our overall record on these pages are well over 60% showing a pretty nifty profit. Saying it CAN'T be done overall is total bull crap! Those of you who've been with us over a WHOLE season definitely know the truth. That's why we document it week to week right here in this section. Let's move on to the real hero of Week 3 & it has to begin & end with New York Giants' QB Daniel Jones. Jones earned his first start in relief of 16-year vet Eli Manning whose QBR has slipped to 78.7 after the first 2 weeks of the season. How did the former Duke QB make out @ Tampa Bay? After the first half, things looked bleak as New York trailed 28-10 & had suffered their biggest injury of the season when all-purpose RB Saquon Barkley suffered a high-ankle sprain after getting his foot caught under a tackler in the 2nd stanza. The Giants' "D" were overwhelmed by Buccaneers' QB Jameis Winston & Co. & couldn't get a stop in the first half. DC James Bettcher made some key halftime adjustments & finally dialed up some badly needed pressure on Winston in the second half. This gave the rookie QB just enough time to throw 2 TD passes to Evan Ingram & Sterling Shepard that drew them within a TD @ 31-25 with a few minutes remaining. Jones maneuvered his team down to the Tampa Bay 7 & was faced with a 4th & 5. Dropping back in the pocket, he saw daylight up the middle & scampered for a 7-yard TD run giving the Giants a 32-31 comeback win & his 2nd rushing TD of the game. How rare was Jones' 2 TD passes & 2 rushing TD's? It was only the 2nd time since the league merger in 1970 that a QB making his first career start achieved this feat. The only QB to this was Eric Hipple of the Detroit Lions. When the smoke had cleared in Tampa, Jones had dazzled the crowd (many Giants fans made the trip) as he completed 23-for-36 for 336 yards good for a stellar 109.7 QBR. Interesting enough, HC Pat Shurmer liked Jones from the time he & his son Kyle Shurmer (now a QB on the KC Chiefs practice squad after graduating from Vanderbilt) were together @ an Eli Manning QB camp in a past summer. For Week 4 when New York entertains the Redskins in Sunday 1 p.m. start, Jones will get ANOTHER opportunity to work his magic IF the Giants' secondary performs like it did in Tampa for half number 2. Since SS Landon Collins, CB Josh Norman & OL Ereck Flowers ALL have a questionable past with NYG GM Dave Gettleman, stay tuned this Sunday as emotions will be riding high! Mike Handzelek's 2019 NFL Week 3 Record: 2-1 for 67% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Record: 6-2 for 75%
 


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