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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 16 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 28, 2020
   
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Sunday, December 27, 2020 Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -165 Green Bay Packers Rating: 8* Mike's Sunday Night Bailout Play (WIN) The line for this wasn't looking favorable early. However, the ML here looks appetizing. Yes, the Titans have an excellent club that will win the AFC South. However, much of their successes have been how opportunistic they've been. Their +11 turnover differential remains 2nd-best in the NFL. But there's one problem. His name is Aaron Rodgers who currently possesses a 40/4 TD/INT ratio. For balance, he doesn't come in without a ground game either. RB Aaron Jones comes into this contest with 968 rushing yards (around 5.4 YPC, 298 receiving yards & 10 TD's. My bottom line says Tennessee may have their brahma bull RB with Derrick Henry, but this team barely beat the Vikings 31-30 as well as going down to the end in a 24-17 triumph over the Bears. I'm not buying the Packers relax theory. They can clinch a #1seed in the NFC. Nashville's finest are an anemic 1-9-1 ATS in Game 15's & a perfect 0-5 ATS if coming off a win. The Packers being 20-1 SU as a favorite seals it. Let's go to legendary Lambeau Field to play the homestanding GREEN BAY PACKERS on the ML as my Sunday Night Bailout Play. Saturday, December 26, 2020 San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-110 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) The public money is OVERWHELMINGLY on the 8-6 SU Cardinals as QB Kyler Murray has drawn major kudos after passing their eye test. The reality of it says San Francisco is now playing @ this venue for the 3rd time in 4 weeks after Santa Clara County's ban forced them to fly south for the winter. Yes, these same 49ers have lost to Buffalo 34-24 & Washington 23-15 the last 2 here. However, their last 3 games were also favorite losses. They dress themselves in a completely different role as divisional dogs this afternoon. The last time they were in this role, the Gold Rush beat the Los Angeles Rams OUTRIGHT 23-20 as 5 1/2-point dogs. My bottom line looks @ the last meeting when the Cardinals won 24-20 over SF as 7-point dogs. From then until now, the odds-makers are saying there's close to a 2 TD adjustment? The 49ers OUTGAINED the Cowboys 458-291 in their 41-33 loss last week. Numbers don't lie! HC Kyle Shanahan & Co. may look like your average losing club @ 5-9 SU on the surface. However, they've been out-scored by just 19 total points on the season. Arizona comes into this game with the pressure all on themselves. Analytics show all NFL Saturday home favorites in the regular season that went up against an opponent off a SU favorite loss have gone a ticket-ripping 9-22 ATS! Tightening this further, the Red Birds are a ticket-ripping 1-13-1 versus the number @ home versus a foe coming off a SU favorite loss. Situationally, Arizona has an all-important divisional game @ the L.A. Rams on-deck to close out the regular season. SF come in loosey-goosey & might just play their Super Bowl here since already being eliminated. QB C.J. Beathard will be the 49ers' signal-caller & comes in with an all-important 2/0 TD/INT ratio, a stat where turnovers (17 INT's) have plagued both Mullens & Garoppolo. Here's exactly where we'll take it. With AZ concentrating on the SU "W", let's jet to the familiar State Farm Stadium in Glendale to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8* NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/100 New Orleans Saints Rating: 9* Payback's A Bitch Christmas Smart Play (WIN) There's MORE than plenty of motivation & urgency for a 10-4 SU New Orleans team to execute revenge as these same 6-8 SU Vikings were responsible for their playoff exit 2 of the last 3 seasons. The 7 1/2-point underdog Vikes beat them 26-20 @ this venue on January 5th in the NFC playoffs. NO still remembers well when Kyle Rudolph's push-off wasn't called offensive pass interference on an OT TD catch. Do I think Saints' QB Drew Brees is up to the task after just coming back from injury last week? Yes, he should be ready to roll as playoffs sit right around the corner in 2 weeks. Brees started slow but warmed up quickly last week versus the Chiefs. KC had the ball for over 41 minutes & only squeaked out a 3-point win as I chalked up another "W" having NO @ 4 1/2. In the first game on Friday in 11 years, let's not lose focus on how ho-hum the Vikings' "D" has become this season. They rank 22nd in total defense, 23rd against the run & 24th against the pass. Let's also NOT under-estimate how BITTER that 33-27 home loss to Da' Bears was last week @ U.S. Bank Stadium. My bottom line says New Orleans is primed to win the NFC South over Tampa Bay AND possibly win a bye if they run the table & are lucky enough to see Green Bay slip up twice. It's hard to back a team with a defense & little motivation giving up over 28 PPG over their last 5 games. The Norsemen have 6 defenders dealing with injuries & play on a short week. The analytics clearly show the NFC 9th-seeded Purple People Eaters are just 1-5 ATS versus this division. On the flip side, the Mardi Gras Boys are a not too shabby 4-1 SU & ATS in their last 5 LHG (last home games) & a perfect 7-0 versus the number @ home if off a game where they were installed as underdogs. Remember, HC Mike Zimmer doesn't know if he'll even be back next year as the Wilf family (Zygi-Owner, Leonard-Vice-Chairman & Jonathan- Executive Vice-President may have already been planning to fire him @ the end of next week. I'm making a solid case for NO since I feel their 3rd-ranked total defense (4th vs. the rush & 5th vs. the pass) should come up with some turnovers (Minny-ha-ha is -5 in that category this season). It's key getting back their NT Malcom Brown whose an excellent run stuffer. Their game plan will be to slow down Dalvin Cook & force Kirk Cousins to beat them through the air. I love our chances as we go to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome to play the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (buying to - 4 1/2) as my 9* Payback's A Bitch Christmas Smart Play! NOTES: I knew when Brees went back under center, New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara game steps up. But no WAY did I think he set a NFL record with 6 rushing TD's versus the Norsemen in a 52-33 romp! I'm looking for the Saints to make some noise again the post-season as they could be on a collision course with the Packers or a 3rd matchup with Brady & the Buccaneers. It was nice to see San Francisco play up to their potential as FB Kyle Juszczyk & TE George Kittle (92 receiving yards) were KEY for an offense led by QB C.J. Beathard. Beathard was solid again (not turning the ball over) & ran his TD/INT ratio to a not too shabby 4/0. The X-Factor for him had to be 2018 undrafted free agent out of North Texas RB Jeff Wilson, Jr. who filled in nicely for Raheem Mostert. Wilson ran for 183 yards on 22 carries as SF beat the Cards OUTRIGHT 20-12. It was a little close for awhile in pick #3 Sunday night. Up 19-7 @ the half, QB Aaron Rodgers made more adjustments & continued to dominate as the Pack won the 2nd half 21-7 on their way to a lopsided 40-14 win. I hope all friends, followers & subscribers continue to have a healthy holiday & better New Year as 2021 approaches. It's been the best NFL season I've had (shattering the 65% in the World Championship season). My motivation has been hot & determined since it got back to me that some handicappers said it's impossible to play ML's & buy points & show a profit. I knew I had to hit around 58-59% with this betting philosophy. If you have been following my NFL plays for the past few years, you know I've hit beyond the profit line. We'll take it 1 week @ a time as we look to end the regular season RIGHT! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 Overall Seasonal Record: 31-12 for a cappers' best 72.1%
 


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