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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 14 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 12, 2019
   
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Sunday, December 08, 2019 Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -155 New England Patriots Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) If you're going with the mushes based on stats, then Kansas City with QB Pat Mahomes is definitely the right side. Don't lose track (even though the latest eye test does not permit), QB Tom Brady & his New England Patriots are a perfect 21-0 SU @ home with only last year's 43-40 win being the ONLY NE victory UNDER 4 points! There's really NOT much to this pick as HC Bill Belichick has proven time & time again that he's adapted his team to the correct tempo & force his opponent to alter their game plan after taking away most of their strengths. Whether or not you've seen the Patriots effectively run the ball, they will here! The Chiefs have vulnerabilities too being ranked 30th in rushing defense & 25th overall. My bottom line says the Tea Men not only own the 2nd-best total defense in the league, but also the best turnover ratio in the NFL with an opportunistic +18. Hey, don't forget KC's last 2 trips away from Arrowhead. They lost @ Tennessee 35-32 & came within a hair of going OT with a 24-17 triumph over the Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City before their bye week. Being 41-21-2 ATS coming off a SU loss seals the deal for us to play this for the SU "W". It's RB Sony Michel's step-up night as we go to legendary Gillette Stadium in Foxborough to play the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-105 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 9* Mike's Under The Radar Play (LOSS) Hurry up! Let's give all the mushes time enough to plow all their money on the blue-collar Pittsburgh Steelers! sorry, I strongly believe NOT having RB James Conner & WR JuJu Smith-Schuster puts tremendous pressure on 3rd-string QB Devlin "Duck" Hodges. The Steelers were in this same situation last season when they traveled to Oakland (a team they should have beaten) but cam out with a 24-21 SU loss. In fact numbers CLEARLY show Pittsburgh HC Mike Tomlin is a 60% losing proposition when favored on the road going 25-38! My bottom line looks @ how the Cardinals have been performing in the dog role of late. Despite their no-show performance versus the Los Angeles Rams last week, they still remain a very profitable 7-3-1 as a barking dog this season. Yes, this is still the same team that went toe-to-toe with the Niners losing 28-25 @ this venue. In their 2 meeting with the AFC North thus far this season, they beat Cincinnati 26-23 on the road while also giving Baltimore all they can handle before losing 23-17 in Inner Harbor. I also feel Arizona rookie QB out of Oklahoma Kyler Murray will bounce back here as he's committed just 2 turnovers going back to Week 4! Immediately on deck, let's not forget the 9-3 SU Bills come to Heinz Field next week. We'll go to State Farm Stadium in Glendale to play the ARIZONA CARDINALS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my Under The Radar Play! Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-105 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) Does anyone want any part of the Bengals? We do & we also did last week. Has anyone watched Cincinnati's defense of late? They've held opponents to an average of 13 PPG over the past 3 weeks! So the mushes think they've given up to solidify the #1 pick in the draft? What intrigues me here is the fact that Cincy QB Andy "Red Rifle" Dalton has a higher QB (80 to 79.9). The Queen City Boys have traveled well to Cleveland losing by 8 last year & winning outright by 24 just 2 seasons ago. I also feel the Brownies left a lot on the field last week in their 7-pt. loss to hated rival Pittsburgh. The drought continues as the last time Cleveland beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh was when Tim Couch was still there in 2003. Getting up 2 weeks in a row versus a team they know they should be presents a problem. My bottom line says Browns' QB Baker Mayfield doesn't look 100% & I'm always hesitant to lay points with HC Freddie Kitchens In addition, the last 6 games has seen Cleveland's offensive output slip to 20 PPG. Do we want to pass up the chance to take 10 1/2 (that's where we'll play it) against an in-consistent offense ranked 21st in scoring? Remember, the Bengals have pretty good pass rushers with Atkins, Hibbard & Dunlap as they've heavily contributed to 41 team sacks thus far. Even though the Browns have better skill personnel, not having Myles Garrett is a BIG deal that impacts this spread. Let's roll to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland to play the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to a key + 10 1/2) as my 9* NFL ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -271 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) Are the Bills worth a look? Yes, if your thinking early-game before all the adrenalin rush is gone. Everyone's talking about how good the Bills' defense (ranks 3rd in scoring "D") is. The Ravens' "D" (5th in scoring "D") is only about 2+ PPG (15.7 to 18.3) behind them in scoring "D"! Then there's the matter of Baltimore's dynamic QB Lamar Jackson whose 20/0 TD/INT ratio over the past 7 games is off the charts. Equally amazing, Baltimore has converted 15 of their 20 4th-down conversions! As far as head-to-head coaches' meetings, let's not lose track of the 47-3 pasting the Bills took in Inner Harbor to open last season. Jackson is not too shabby SU on the road winning 7 of 9 starts (7-1-1- ATS). My bottom line says not to lose track of Buffalo playing the easiest (32nd) schedule to date that's highly responsible for their 9-3 SU record. This Ravens' "D" has vastly improved since their obtain Marcus Peters to solidify the top 2 corners in the league after CB Jimmy Smith came back. Numbers don't lie! This same defense has only yielded 4 TD passes in their last 6 games! So what has Buffalo's offense put up against D's like New England, Philadelphia & the New York Jets? Let's try an offensive output of 12.3 PPG! This tells me Lamar Jackson is more than capable of getting enough points versus a decent front. We're trekking up to blustery New Era Field (like Ralph Wilson Stadium name better) in Orchard Park to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS as my 9* NFL Headliner Moneyliner! Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -185 Atlanta Falcons Rating: 8* 8* In Transition Play (WIN) Hey, even when ex-HC Ron Rivera was there, they still had trouble beating these Falcons! Atlanta QB Matty "ICE" Ryan is a not-too-shabby 15-8 SU (7-1 SU the last 8) including a 29-3 pasting of them back in Carolina just 3 weeks ago. The Falcons' defense baited rookie QB Kyle Allen into throwing 4 picks on his home turf, what do you think happens NOW with this rookie on the road? The Panthers have been losing games in the trenches & that usually magnifies when you take it to the road. No, Atlanta is no bargain as a favorite. Considering all circumstances, decent offensive outputs by RB Christian McCaffrey (12 rushing TD's) get wasted when you have a defense giving up close to 31 PPG over the last 3 along with yielding 22 rushing TD's for the season. My bottom line says GM Marty Hurney & Owner David Tepper have major decisions to make about their QB & HC situation long term. Being in some much flux, it's going to be hard sustaining any continuity. We'll be glad to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia to play the ATLANTA FALCONS as my 8* In Transition Play! Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1/-110 Los Angeles Rams Rating: 8* Sunday Night Bailout Play (WIN) These NOT many teams that matchup well with the Seattle Seahawks but these Los Angeles Rams ARE one of them. If it wasn't for a missed Greg "The Leg" FG in an earlier Thursday meeting in Seattle, this NFC West Division would have a whole different picture. Regardless, the Rams are a desperate football team that need to run the table & hope for some help with the Wild Card picture involving the Vikings, Packers AND these same Seahawks. My bottom line says HC Sean McVay seems to have RB Todd Gurley getting his touches. when he gets 20+ of them, its lights-out (19-1 SU since 17')! That opens the door for WR's Cooper Kupp & Robert Woods to do their thing. Let's bite the bullet with QB Jared Goff since the Seattle numbers DON'T make sense to coincide with the record. Let's make way to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to play the LOS ANGELES RAMS (buying to our line @ + 3 1/2) as my Sunday Night Bailout Play! NOTES: For those subscribers who watched the Pittsburgh @ Arizona and/or Kansas City @ New England games, you'll know that we should've swept 6-0 on Sunday instead of a very profitable 4-2. Pittsburgh gets both an 85-yard punt return for a TD by Diontae Johnson AND a late FG for the late cover. New England gets HOSED period! N'Keal Harry's TD not called a TD clearly showed on replay that both feet were in-bounds before he leaped over the plane. Getting 3 instead of 7 impacted the outcome since NE would have forced OT with a FG late instead of needing 7 to tie. On that last drive, WR Julian Edelman was draped over by the KC secondary BEFORE the pass arrived in the end zone BUT no interference was called? Finally, an early KC fumble that was returned into FG range by NE was ruled NO FUMBLE yet replay CLEARLY showed the ball was out before he was ruled down. With many sharps on the NE moneyline, I remain HIGHLY skeptical about the officiating (or lack thereof) on ALL these results that took a ton of points off the board. Rules NEED to be changed about not only reviewing TD plays but also potential TD plays in order to get the call right. The way the officiating has gone, the NFL's reputation & accountability has taken a NOSEDIVE this season. The multi-million dollar front office of Commissioner Roger Goddell needs to compensate before he loses BIG revenues. Until then, the officiating on the whole remains bush-league! O'h yes, how can we forget there's also the matter of Spygate II looming dead ahead. However, let's wait for a ruling before casting definitive judgment. We certainly were right on with the Rams owning Seattle, Atlanta & the Ravens. How about buying to + 10 1/2 with the nobody-wants-them Bengals & getting the cover by 2 1/2? Going into Week 15, my NFL Power Rankings are as follows: 1) Baltimore 2) San Francisco 3) Kansas City 4) New Orleans 5) New England 6) Minnesota 7) Los Angeles Rams 8) Seattle 9) Tennessee 10) Green Bay. Consult my VegasTopDogs weekly articles for correct week-by-week records. Mike Handzelek's 2019 NFL Week 14 Record: 4-2 for 67% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Record: 34-25 for a rising 58%
 


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