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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 14 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 13, 2018
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Sunday, December 09, 2018 Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -178 Green Bay Packers Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (WIN) Look for us to get off the snide on this "Ugly Pig" as we head to frozen tundra @ Lambeau Field. If those of you don't remember, it was just 2 short years ago that the Falcons dismantled the Packers 44-21 in the NFC Championship. This game is the 1st opportunity (since that game) for QB Aaron Rodgers & Green Bay to play Atlanta in the elements of Wisconsin. Besides the revenge factor, the 4-7-1 SU Cheeseheads are still a tough out @ home going 4-1-1 SU this season. Don't think for a second that Aaron Rodgers won't get the job done after the Mike McCarthy era is finally over & interim HC Joe Philbin's begins. He now gets to face a banged-up Falcons' "D" that's not only lost 4 straight SU, but have raised the white flag getting ambushed on the ground out by a 700-211 count in those games. Even though both teams are in the Top 10 in offense, Atlanta's 26th-ranked defense (27th vs. the rush & falling) fails in comparison to the Packers 13th-ranked "D". They'll have to come up with quick answers for Rodgers (21/1 TD/INT ratio) & RB Aaron Jones (5.7 YPR & 7 TD's, 23 receptions for 178 yards, 1 TD) whose team averages over 26 PPG & yield just 19 @ home. My bottom line still points to a Dirty Birds' defense that's yielded an alarming 51% on 3rd-down while also struggling in the red zone. The first dagger for us has to be new HC Joe Philbin. Going back to his days coaching Miami, he's been super-solid SU & ATS @ home versus the patsies (losing teams) winning 8 of his last 9 decisions. In addition, going against a home team ( chalk of 7 or less) off a SU home favorite loss as a double-digit favorite has been a losing proposition. Teams in this situation have covered the number 18 of the last 24. The final dagger looks @ the Falcons' 131-yard offensive output last week versus Baltimore was their lowest in 19 years since Steve Mariucci's 49ers (won 26-7) held them to 105 total yards @ 3com Park when HC Dan Reeves, QB Chris Chandler & WR Terence Mathis were relevant. It's going to be tough for QB Matt Ryan & WR Julio Jones to connect deep in 20-degree & windy weather. Let's go to historic Lambeau Field to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS to notch the "W" as my NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-105 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) What? You're going against the 10-2 SU Chiefs @ home? Yes, that's exactly what we're doing! A BIG reason for it has to do with disrupted chemistry. HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid doesn't know the PROPER way to fill the gap yet. Does he get WR Tyreek Hill more involved in the running game? Is it just as simple as penciling in RB Spencer Ware (4.8 YPR) or RB Darrel Williams (4.9 YPR) to fill the void left by Kareem Hunt (824 rushing yards, 4.6 YPR, 7 TD's, 26 catches for 378 yards & 7 more TD's)? Even rookie sensation Patrick Mahomes (3,923 passing yards, 66.9% completions, 41/10 TD/INT ratio, sacked 20 times, 118.1 QBR) knows his numbers will take a hit in his absence. Things look much simpler on the flip side of the coin. What the Ravens DO KNOW is they need to OUT-RUSH their opponent & let their defense do the talking. HC John Harbaugh's bunch has won all 6 times it out-rushed their opponent by 5 or more yards & since newly-inserted rookie QB Lamar Jackson's (is good to go after a concussion) been inserted in the lineup, Baltimore has averaged college numbers @ 238 YPG on the ground & has enjoyed over a +14 minutes advantage of possession time. They'll go up against a Chiefs' "D" ranked 31st overall (who possibly get S Eric Berry back) that's only better than Cincinnati's. Add to that KC now faces the newly-tweaked hybrid 3-4 defense (ex-LB & now DC Don Martindale threw a few wrinkles into it after Dean Pees left to join Mike Vrabel in Tennessee) that's ranked #1 in the NFL (2nd vs. the pass & 3rd vs. the rush) AND I think we have more than something brewing. The only thing I hope Harbaugh DOESN'T do is re-insert Joe Flacco to disrupt momentum. My bottom line say situations (Ravens clearly the desperate team) & numbers point in OUR favor. Remember, "The Walrus"! Reid is a ticket-ripping 6-10 ATS in December when installed as a NON-divisional home favorite & has lost 6 of his last vs. the number if that opponent owns a .466 or greater winning percentage. The daggers for us have to be John Harbaugh as he's a heading-to-the-window 8-0-1 ATS versus teams off an ATS loss AND the fact that these Black Birds are ALSO a perfect 6-0 ATS in their 2nd of back-to-back roadies if facing a .500 or better NON-divisional opponent. With Lamar Jackson (4.9 YPR & 3 TDs) & RB Gus Edwards (5 YPR) providing the run support, I love our chances getting points. Look for MLB C.J. Mosley to be their X-Factor here. Let's go to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (like a baseball game) as we buy to + 8 as my NFL Earlybird Dependable! Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.0/-105 Indianapolis Colts Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Jon Q Public & the mushes are all over this one @ 62%. Yes, the Texans are more than rolling winning 9 straight SU (7-2 ATS). However, the Colts' "D" have more than stepped it up for new DC Matt Eberflus who utilizes a new "Tampa 2" 4-3 defensive scheme that thrives on speed in the secondary. GM Chris Ballard (2nd year) clearly emphasized DEFENSE since taking over the reins as he's drafted 12 players + some key free-agents to revamp a defense that was 30th when HC Chuck Pagano & DC Ted Monachino still roamed the sidelines. Eberflus has brought respect back this season as Indianapolis (now ranked 11th overall to Houston's 10th) has given up a stingy 16.5 PPG (13.3 PPG the past 3) over their last 6 contests. As far as the Texans' starting the season 0-3 (then winning 9), only 5 of 173 teams since 80' (that's 2.8%) have gone on to make the playoffs. Even though it looks like # 6 here, remember ALL 5 of those teams (81' Jets, 82' Bucs, 92' Chargers, 95' Lions & 98' Bills-what was HC thinking benching Doug Flutie for Rob Johnson for the playoffs?) LOST their 1st playoff game. In Houston's current streak, 4 of them were by a FG or less. My bottom line says the Colts are out to prove they can beat the Texans. For those with short memories, new HC Frank Reich went for it in OT on 4th down from his own 43, lost & watched the Texans kick a FG @ the buzzer for a 37-34 win back in Week 4. So how's HC Bill O'Brien when installed as favorites of 3 or more? Try a mush-like 4-8-1 ATS the past 3 years. In fact, Houston is just 1-7 ATS their last 8 games in December. We're not over-reacting to that 6-0 loss to the Jags last week since the Colts have responded well immediately after a Jacksonville tussle going 8-2 ATS (1-0 TY). The last dagger for us looks @ HOT TEAMS getting over-valued. We saw it with the L.A. Rams who've lost 4 of their last 5 ATS. Just last week, the Texans yielded 428 total yards to Cleveland & rookie Baker Mayfield. Enter in QB Andrew Luck. No, he doesn't have the scrambling ability of Deshaun Watson, but he now has a viable 2nd man to target in TE Eric Ebron who currently leads the team in receptions with 54 (T.Y. Hilton 53). In the past, numbers show Indianapolis being 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS when visiting Houston. Luck responds in a BIG way when coming off a SU loss (if his team is .333 or better) as he's a take-me-to-the-window 16-2 SU & ATS his last 18. Tighten that even further @ 16-1 ATS IF they failed to score at least 21 points in that same scenario. The dagger has to be Indy's 33 PPG the past 8 before Jax where my road exhaustion system kicked in against them. The Texans look for their 3rd double-digit win in a row. In this situation earlier in the year, they won by 2 points over Denver. Let's go to NRG Stadium in Houston to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (buying to +6 @ baseball odds) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES: This time of season the mushes come out in DROVES! Hop aboard & ride the train as there's going to be some teams OVER-ACHIEVING. We'll take advantage IF the line is right with 3 or 4 teams with key personnel IN PLACE. The coaches did their jobs for us Sunday with carried-out game plans. Aaron Rodgers was true to form in revenge, Lamar Jackson took KC to OT on the road before falling (we had +8) & Andrew Luck was GOLD in revenge off a loss as we SWEPT the board. Be back Saturday as we head into the college bowl season with a head of steam rated #1 in winning percentage in CFB. Thanks to all the loyal customers who have withered through the mid-season finding domination toward the end. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 25-13 for 66% (This week took over as #1 in Winning Percentage in the NFL @ VegasTopDogs)

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