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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 13 Sunday/Monday Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 3, 2019
   
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Monday, December 02, 2019 Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-105 Minnesota Vikings Rating: 9* Mike's Monday Night Football Smart Play (LOSS) Both of these teams need this game equally as a win means they draw even with their nearest competitor for a division title. There's many things factoring into this fracas. Let's begin with looking @ how Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer does in non-divisional games. The skipper of the Purple People Eaters has a jalapeno-like 41-17-3 ATS record (70.7%) as well as 22-9 ATS with revenge against those non-divisional foes. Look his Vikings to execute triple-revenge for last year's 21-7 setback @ this venue & for (2) losses in 15' including a bitter 10-9 loss on a missed FG. Staying in the numbers, many mushes will point out that 2 TD MNF loss last season. However, w bee'll sticking to value & this season since its the Hawks' who are OVER-valued going a dismal 1-4 versus the number @ home. I feel Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has made adjustments since 21-16 & 16-6 losses on the road to Green Bay & Chicago back in September. He's definitely righted the ship & NOW shows pretty good numbers with a 70.6% completion rate, 8.6 YPA, a 21/3 TD/INT ratio, sacked 22 times & good for a 114.8 QBR. This actually eclipses Seattle's Man Of The Hour QB Russell Wilson whose turned in a 67.3% completion rate, 8.3 YPA, a 24/3 TD/INT ratio, sacked 33 times & a 112.1 QBR. The Vikings offense have also put up a better 3rd-down conversion rate by 4% (44 % to 40%). My bottom line stresses that Fran Tarkenton's 1st club do very well when they own a .666 record or better AND are off the bye. In the last 12 of these situations, the Vikes have gone a ML cashing 11-1 SU as well as a take-me-back-to-the-window 9-1-2 versus the number. Sealing the deal says the Norseman are also a near-perfect 8-1 ATS in their 7th away game of the regular season. I'm looking for a FG game after all is said & done. Let's go to CenturyLink Field near the towering Space Needle to play the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (buying to a key + 4 1/2) as my Monday Night Football Smart Play! Sunday, December 01, 2019 Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Tennessee Titans Rating: 9* AFC South Pointspread Beater (WIN) I understand that the 6-5 SU Colts do have the extra prep time coming off that Thursday loss to Houston. However, they'll have to face the rising Titans without 2 of their main cogs/playmakers in RB Marlon Mack (fractured right hand) & WR T.Y. Hilton (calf injury). They've also lost TE Eric Ebron for the season with getting surgery on both ankles. New guy on the block QB Ryan Tannehill has done pretty well since taking position under center going a super 4-1 SU & ATS. To say Tennessee's offense is clicking is an under-statement since their 238 total yards last week versus Jacksonville in just the 3rd quarter alone was the most in the franchise in 1 quarter in the past 22 years back to when they were the Houston Oilers. Numbers show 6-5 SU Tennessee has now cashed the past 6 times in their next game off the Jaguars. My bottom line says BOTH of these teams need the game with the Titans sitting 9th & the Colts 8th in playoff seeding order. I feel the best playmaker left (not hurt) has to be RB Derrick Henry (347 rushing yards the last 2 games/991 rushing yards for 10 TD's) but is listed as probable with a hamstring issue) who now has an OC in Arthur Smith whose calling his number more frequently. These 2 played close in Week 2 with Indianapolis squeaking out a 19-17 win in Nashville. Let's crunch some quick numbers. Consistent statistical trends show Indy coming off 2 straight ATS wins has come back to cover just ONCE the past 13 instances. With QB Jacoby Brissett throwing for a low 129 yards last week, the Titans' "D" should have an easier time prepping for him since the Colts have limited targets. Let's go to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to play the TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to a key + 4 1/2-buy it early by Saturday morning or Friday night) as my 9* AFC South Pointspread Beater! Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 10/-101 Washington Redskins Rating: 8* Mike's 1st Ugly Pig (WIN) Yes, 2-9 SU Washington has nothing to play for but pride the rest of the way. However, they haven't given up yet. After further examination, we find D.C. keeping 4 of their last 6 games within 10 points. The mushes expect Washington to revert back to their former selves after notching win #2 versus Detroit last week by a 19-16 count. What I believe about this game is an over-pricing on 5-6 SU Carolina. In fact, they're #22 in the NFL Power ratings but 13th in Bettor ratings. My bottom line says the Redskins are capable here as they already proved they can play in the crappy weather with an earlier 9-0 loss to San Francisco AND a 19-9 defeat @ Minnesota. Yes, Washington rookie QB Dwayne Haskins has made mistakes. As far as defenses are concerned, the Redskins are better in scoring defense than the Panthers (23rd-25th). QB Kyle Allen & RB Chrisitan McCaffrey have impressed for Carolina, but covering a double-digit point-spread is way too steep with a BIG revenge game @ Atlanta (they lost 29-3 just 2 weeks ago) & just coming up short @ New Orleans 34-31. We'll ride that divisional sandwich angle as we go to Bank Of America Stadium in Charlotte to play the WASHINGTON REDSKINS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 1st Ugly Pig Play! New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-120 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 8* Mike's Ugliest Pig Game Of The Week (WIN) If you thought going out on a limb with the Redskins, we're not finished yet! Remember, both of these teams have power ratings very similar with the Jets @ 27th & the Bengals @ 31st. Besides 4-7 SU New York showing some life as winners of 3 in a row SU (beating the Giants, Redskins & Raiders), the winless Bengals have also showed signs of life & stayed pretty competitive themselves with 2 straight games within a TD against Oakland & Pittsburgh. The BIG reason has been a resurgence of RB Joe Mixon (599 rushing yards). Crunching some numbers have revealed the Fly Boys just 2-6 SU after 3 straight victories. Let's not lose perspective when it comes to Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton! The Red Rifle has chewed up AFC East competition coming off a SU win by going 7-1 ATS the past 8 but more importantly a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS if he's playing @ home! That's a stat that cannot be ignored even if we're talking the 0-11 Bengals. Let's get ready & pop over to historic Paul Brown Stadium in Ohio to play the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my Ugliest Pig Play Of The Week! Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 8* Mike's Weary Shorter-Week Play (LOSS) I'm questioning how much the Rams still have in the tank after that demoralizing beating they took in prime-time versus Baltimore in a humbling 45-6 defeat. The mushes are expecting for Los Angeles to rebound. However, they're talking about the same team that's gone 3-5 SU since Week 4! I feel there's plenty of film on QB Jared Goff now & it's starting to show more flaws since his stats show a 11/10 TD/INT ratio with a 82.1 QBR which fails in comparison to Arizona's Kyler Murray with a 14/5 TD/INT ratio & a 91.2 QBR. New HC Kliff Kingbury & his charges may be 3-7-1 SU but they have been continually under-valued with a 7-3-1 ATS record. If the 49ers had trouble with these Cardinals twice, what happens to the Rams here? My bottom line says we're asking for the home team to stay competitive & not necessarily to get the SU "W". Let's go to State Farm Stadium to play the ARIZONA CARDINALS as my Weary Shorter-Week Play! San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -250 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) Yes, the San Francisco 49ers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. However, key cog RB Matt Breida is OUT & that takes a little win out of SF's sail. The M.O. on the Ravens say they DON'T fail getting up for BIG games @ home! The situational edges are all Baltimore here! San Francisco is coming east for a 10 AM biological start against a team scoring over 34 PPG. The 49ers when @ fuller strength are averaging around 26 PPG on the road & have already been held to 9 points by the Redskins in an earlier visit to the state of Maryland. My bottom line says the December winds with challenge QB Jimmy Garoppolo (20/10 TD/INT ratio, 100.6 QBR) & I'm sure recent Rams transfer & now Raven Marcus Peters & the Baltimore secondary will challenge his weaknesses. In this rematch of Super Bowl 47, we'll strongly side with the better & more QB in Lamar Jackson who gave the strong Patriots' "D" fits putting up 37 on them. Points will register as we fly down to the game of the weekend as we go to M&T Bank Stadium in Inner Harbor to play the under-valued (power rating of #1 but bettor rating of #7) BALTIMORE RAVENS as my NFL Headliner Moneyliner! NOTES: It was disappointing to say the least as the Dallas "D" didn't show up on Turkey Day giving 124 rushing yards to Buffalo while generating ZERO turnovers for the 4th straight week. The Cowboys turned it over twice as they wasted 32 first downs & a (+70) total yards edge in a 26-15 home loss. The Redskins came up BIG for us as former L.S.U. speedster Derrius Guice (looks like 100 % off a tough ACL injury) combined with Adrian Peterson for a season-high 248 rushing yards in a 29-21 win as (+ 11 1/2-point dogs). We also bagged another upset with 0-11 SU Cincinnati with QB Andy Dalton back under center. Our 60/90 road exhaustion theory delivered another "W". Even though Arizona was flatsky off the byesky, the Ravens came through for us despite the sloppy weather generating 283 total yards in a 20-17 win over SF (pushed the Niners back to the NFC 5th-seed with the loss). The Titans came through getting the points (+ 4 1/2) after getting a blocked FG return for a TD in a 31-17 win despite being out-gained by 99 yards against a hobbling Indy offense. Monday Night was unfortunate as the Vikings blew a 2nd-half TD lead & lost key cog & former Florida State RB Dalvin Cook in lost in the end 37-30 @ Seattle. The STORY of the weekend had to be the Dolphins stunning 37-31 win @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens over the Eagles. For the 3rd consecutive week, Philly fell victims to a trick play TD. This time, the desert connection hooked up as Punter Matt Haack (from Arizona State) hit Kicker Jason Sanders (from New Mexico) with a 1-yd-TD pass in the 2nd quarter. I actually remember the last time this was accomplished. The year was 1977 when Denver Kicker Jim Turner caught a pass from Punter/QB Norris Weese as the Broncos floored the Raiders 30-7 @ the Black Hole. Interesting enough, Silver & Black QB Ken Stabler threw a tied-for-the-modern day (1960-present) record 7 INT's in that game. Stay tuned as we breakdown what's wrong with the Eagles this week! Mike Handzelek's 2019 NFL Week 13 Thurs/Sun/Mon Overall Record: 4-3 for 57% Mike Handzelek 2019-20 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 30-23 for 57%
 


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