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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 13 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 4, 2018
   
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Sunday, December 02, 2018 Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-103 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) The difference here is Baltimore's rookie QB Lamar Jackson. With Flacco, the Ravens struggled with balance in the middle of the season. In Jackson's 1st 2 games as a starter, his team has rushed for 507 yards! Over those same 2 games, Quinn's unit has rushed for a combined 106? The Ravens' rookie now faces a team that can't get off the field on defense. The Falcons' "D" (ranks 29th in scoring defense) yields a very high 51% conversions on 3rd-down. On the other side of the coin, let's enter in Baltimore's #1 total & scoring defense & I think we have something brewing versus a Matt Ryan-led offense that's been searching for answers (17.3 PPG over their last 3). This fits nicely since Atlanta has clearly showed its deficiencies when it comes to playing non-conference opponents as they've dropped 19 out of their last 24 against the number. My bottom line says the Falcons' offense will get some passing yards with their pass-heavy offense. However, they turned it over 3 times last week when they've struggled to run. Baltimore's DC Don Martindale runs a suffocating 3-4 that utilizes a RUSH-back filled by 16-year future HOF vet Terrell Suggs & the up & coming Za'Darius Smith (combined for 11 sacks this season). My dagger has to be this same Ravens' "D" being highly successful on 3rd-down limiting opponents to 34.9% conversions. I'm also NOT convinced that Atlanta has an answer to an effective QB spy in the middle of their defense. Baltimore is the more desperate team in the hunt versus a team playing for next season. Let's go to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to a key + 4 1/2) as my NFL Earlybird Dependable! Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-103 Buffalo Bills Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Rivalry Play Of The Week (WIN off the buy) These teams in this long-time hated rivalry are going in opposite directions. Miami has lost 6 of 8 while Buffalo rides a 2-game winning streak. The Bills offense looks revitalized with rookie QB Josh Allen returning from an elbow injury last week to rush for 99 yards versus Jacksonville's Top 5 total defense last week. Allen & McCoy should welcome with eager arms a Dolphins' rushing "D" that ranks 30th & are in the bottom 4 in sacks. Even though both teams are in the bottom 4 in total offense, the Bills' 158 rushing yards per game should give them a good time of possession advantage versus a Miami team that already holds a - 3 1/2 minutes of possess time DISADVANTAGE. There's also a matter of teams switching roles in turnover advantage later in the season. Buffalo is trending up @ -5 & the Dolphins are trending down @ +6. since these 2 teams are hard to separate, I can't see Miami turning around their inconsistency of getting things done during crunch time. When you zero in on the Dolphins home games toward the end of the season (specifically their 7th of 8), you'll find they've cashed @ the window on 1 of their last 8 tries. In the numbers supports us when Buffalo hits the road as a dog between home games as well. They're trending up in this category covering 4 of their last 5 in that role. Yes, 30-year-old QB Ryan Tannehill is back. He may have put up 24 on Indianapolis last week, but he's now facing the 2nd-best team in total "D" & the #1 pass defense in the NFL. WLB Matt Milano & S Jordan Poyer have been their playmakers pitching in with 3 INT's each. The Bills have already notched a convincing divisional road win (41-14) @ MetLife Stadium versus the Jets 3 weeks ago. Let's get charged up as we head to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami to play the BUFFALO BILLS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my NFL Rivalry Game Of The Week! Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 7* Mike's Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) Yep, this one definitely qualifies for that "Hold Your Nose" game of the week. I don't know where the mushes are looking? My power ratings CLEARLY show a Cincinnati a 2-point advantage in a game where the line is about a TD in the opposite direction. The Broncos are still 2-3 SU on the road & that includes a win versus the 2-9 SU Cardinals. Even tough the Bengals lost QB Andy Dalton, I believe backup Jeff Driskel (3rd year out of Louisiana Tech-had a higher passer rating subbing last week-92.2 than opponent Case Keenum-84.6) is capable of shining @ his home venue against the 25th-ranked Denver defense. My bottom line says the Broncos clearly have separation problems as witnessed by just one win (Arizona) by more than 7 all season. With leading playmaker & WR A.J. Green back in the lineup (6 TD's in limited action), I love our chances grabbing some points. Let's go to historic Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati to play the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to +6) as my Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! NOTES: Even though the Bengals ruined our perfect week, we'll take the 2-1 every time. The Bills won for us on the buy point but should have ALSO won outright. Josh Allen had a wide open TD in the right corner of the end zone but slightly under-threw his receiver in the end. We'll also be watching the Ravens VERY CLOSELY to see IF they've turned the corner with new QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore's BIGGEST test of all is Sunday in Kansas City. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 22-13 for 63% (Tied for 2nd among NFL cappers @ VTD)
 

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