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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 12 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 26, 2018
   
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Sunday, November 25, 2018 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-105 Buffalo Bills Rating: 10* Mike's 10* NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) This Jacksonville team is NOT the same team that's defense dominated last season. In 10 games thus far, they've given up 100 or more rushing yards 6 times including 206 to the Cowboys. While their pass defense is still in the top 3 in the league, they're a distant 27th in sacks & getting pressure on opposing QB's. This team has been a terror on the road! In Week 1, they got outgained by the New York Giants & survived 20-15 in New Jersey. Their next 2 away games versus Kansas City & Dallas, they got outscored by a combined score of 70-21. They followed that with a 24-18 loss to the Eagles in London before losing 29-26 @ Indianapolis just 2 weeks ago. Coming into Orchard park today, they're 1-4 SU away from the comfy grass of EverBank Field. Inside bickering has led to their current 6-game SU losing streak that's sent them into a free-fall @ 3-7. Even though the Bills come into this game with an identical 3-7 record, they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Their pass defense is rested & already the BEST in the NFL (2nd in total defense) which is bad news for Jags QB Blake Bortles who passed for 104 yards @ home versus Pittsburgh (7th-ranked passing "D"). Things won't get better soon after that draining come-from-ahead 20-16 loss to the Steelers. Besides problems @ OLT, they've lost their star C Brandon Linder (knee injury) for the season. HC Doug Marrone returns to Buffalo (he used an option clause in his contract to leave for Jacksonville & still got $4 million from Buffalo) without a full arsenal to put up serious points on the board. Jacksonville is playing on an off-surface in their FIRST cold game of the season. My bottom points out that these Jags are a ticket-ripping 1-11 ATS as road favorites off an ATS win AND facing a team with a SU losing record. Numbers support us on the home side as well since the Bills come in 5-1 ATS before taking on back-to-back divisional opponents (Miami & the N.Y. Jets). Whether its Josh Allen (back from an elbow injury) or hot hand Matt Barkley, "Orchard Park's Finest" have big-time revenge after losing their AFC Wild-Card game last season by a 10-3 count (they out-stated them 263 to 230) versus these Jags. Remember, the teal & black have the 3rd worst turnover differential (-9, tied with Philly & Arizona) in the NFL only behind TB's -23 & SF's -15. My dagger says Jacksonville is running on empty after that bitter loss to Pitt & now takes on a playoff revenger. That's PROVEN to be a SU disaster as well as an ATS one. These 2 met here 2 seasons ago with the Bills winning 28-21. Let's get ready for an UGLY one as we head to Old Ralph Wilson Stadium to play the BUFFALO BILLS (still buying to a strategic + 4 1/2) as my 10* NFL Earlybird Dependable! San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.0/-107 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 7* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (LOSS) As a handicapper, you'll always look for that dog that creep up & BITE you! This week, San Francisco is THAT TEAM. Now enter QB Nick Mullens whose @ a 4/2 TD/INT ratio thus far. Even though his team comes in with a weak 2-8 SU record, they've been a very competitive -36 points in scoring. I don't believe in the QB platoon system that HC Dirk Koetter employs @ Tampa Bay. Yes, they're the #1 offense in the league (mostly due to Fitzpatrick) but also clearly leads the NFL @ -25 in turnover differential. Ryan Fitzpatrick & Jameis Winston have also combined to throw 23 INT's. That 's a BIG gap compared to their 28th-ranked defense that only has 1 INT to their credit in 10 games. The Buccaneers have simply NOT been able to separate from teams @ home with the biggest win by 6 over Philadelphia thus far. This fits like a glove since the 49ers have lost their past 3 road games by 3,3 & 2 @ Arizona, Green Bay & the L.A. Chargers. My bottom line says HC Kyle Shanahan is a master of different looks, misdirection & play action. Look for San Francisco to exploit the Tampa bay defense & add to the Bucs current 4-game losing skein. Numbers support us as Tampa Bay is a perfect 0-5 ATS when playing a non-divisional game in their 1st of 3 consecutive home games combined with SF covering 8 of their last 12 as a road pup. Making ground down to Tampa's Raymond James Stadium to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my NFL Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-113 Cleveland Browns Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Recent history clearly favors the home team who ALSO have Browns' ex-HC Hue Jackson on their coaching staff. However, getting 2 weeks to prepare for this hated rival has its advantages. Even though this game is between the NFL's 2 worst defenses, Cincinnati (losers of 4 of their last 5) ranks dead last in total, rushing & passing defense. In those 5 games, they've given up an average of 504 yards & 36.5 PPG! Don't over-react to the Bengals' current 7-0 SU & ATS streak over Cleveland were the average win was by 21 points. The missing ingredient in those 7 games were QB Baker Mayfield (3 TD's & just 2 incompletions) & RB Nick Chubb (176 rushing yards) who shined 2 weeks ago in Cleveland's 28-16 win over Atlanta. My bottom line says Cincinnati NEEDS WR A.J. Green (nursing a toe injury) healthy. Numbers support us as well with the 'Queen City Boys" being an Antarctic-like 1-7 ATS @ home against teams off a bye week. Cincy's offense has been held under 300 total yards in 4 of their last 5. The dagger has to be an opportunistic defense that's ranked first in the AFC in turnover differential @ +12. Remember, Cleveland's high win total in Vegas is for a reason! Let's trek over to the Battle of Ohio @ Paul Brown Stadium to play the CLEVELAND BROWNS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-105 Denver Broncos Rating: 8* Mike's Later Game Systems Play (WIN) Don't get me wrong but Pittsburgh is arguably the second-best team in the AFC. However, this situation clearly points to them being in the wrong place @ the wrong time. It's going to be SUPER-TOUGH for them to travel to high-altitude Denver & play an "A" game after leaving it ALL on the field in Jacksonville last week. Pittsburgh has a BIG game with the L.A. Chargers @ home on deck. With QB Case Keenum, it will be feast or famine in successfully finding WR's Emmanuel Sanders & Courtland Sutton downfield & avoiding the Steeler pass rush. My bottom line says Pittsburgh's kryptonite has clearly been games versus the AFC West. In their past 14 tries, they've not only gone 2-12 ATS but also have lost 11 of them SU. On the flip side of the coin, the Broncos have risen to the occasion as a home pup against .500 or better teams going a near-perfect 9-1 ATS. Here's the dagger! Since 1980, the Broncos not only are 14-3 SU but also a window-cashing 15-1-1 ATS as a HOME DOG off a divisional game. This game will be close in the end. Let's fly up to Denver's Sports Authority Field @ Mile High to play the DENVER BRONCOS (buying to + 4 1/2 with a little pasta on the ML) as my Later Game Systems Play! Thursday, November 22, 2018 Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-110 Washington Redskins Rating: 7* (LOSS) This is a battle for 1st place in the NFL Least! Don't expect ANOTHER lackluster effort by these Skins' who have the Top 3 rushing defense in the league. Yes, the eye test LOOKS like but not necessarily is the Cowboys. Why? Because newly-inserted back-up QB Colt McCoy isn't that much of a drop-off than Alex Smith. The 9-year veteran McCoy not only wants to prove he can play to his HC Jay Gruden but also to the state of Texas AND the Cowboys. Since Dallas over-looked him in the draft, look for the former Jim Ned High School (Tuscola, TX) & University of Texas QB to be resilient & ready to make adjustments as the game progresses. For those who DON'T remember, McCoy started 1 game in 2014 versus these Cowboys in Arlington. How did he do? He went 25-for-30 good for 299 yards, rushed for a TD in leading Washington to an outright 20-17 win. Numbers do show Dallas being 7-4 SU @ this venue versus the Redskins. However, they were continually over-priced in those games as witnessed by a 2-9 ATS record. When you figure in only Thanksgiving Day games, Jerry's Kids are a perfect 0-7 ATS the last 7 years. Washington has covered their last 3 Turkey Day affairs. My bottom line takes a look @ HC Jason Garrett. You can't lose focus on this guy. He's been pretty consistent as he's a putrid 8-28 ATS (1-8 ATS if favored by 7 or more) as home chalk against teams with a .250 winning percentage or greater. Solidifying our cause is the D.C. Boys being a window-cashing 9-0 ATS as road pups of more than 6 in their 1st of consecutive away contests. The dagger for us shows the Redskins @ a responding 8-0 ATS the past 4 seasons (November 23, 2014) after a home loss where threw for at least 1 TD. Let's go to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to play the WASHINGTON REDSKINS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my NFL Perfect System Turkey Day Play! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 20-12 for 63%
 

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